Thank you so much Tempus for all your great calculations and making it easy for us to understand exactly why there is a problem with this project. I admit I was very much enamored with the "investor" list and the big names that supposedly supported NeuCoin. I joined the community and was very much active and enthusiastic. I bought in the presale and even came up with the Squirrel name- Tippy. They made me moderator and all was good and exciting. Then they started pushing back the release and then investors in the community started asking questions. Priemievalsoup was a big investor and he started asking some serious questions. Being a game developer and having some experience with releasing products, his question on why there was no testnet really struck a chord for me. I asked Sandrine and the other moderators about this, and Sandrine told me the team was doing extensive testing already, and a testnet was not needed.
Fast forward a month later to the supposed launch- they come and say they are pushing back the launch because they need more testing and are releasing a testnet to the presale investors by the end of the month. I was really set off and finally had to leave when the end of the month came, the testnet was not released to us, but they claimed they held their promise because they released to "angel investors."
I never really understood the problem with inflation, and I was impartial to Dan Kaufman's shady past, but I just couldn't get behind a team that I could not trust. Now with all the calculations being clear I finally understand the inflation problem and I understand the silence and dodging of questions. I think like what you said, they don't know what to do now and it's just easier to not say anything. I feel so grateful I was able to sell all my NeuCoin and I was able to break even before it was too late.
Regarding your question on why there isn't much action on the forum... I think back then there was some excitement but that just all faded, and people became disenchanted (at least for me). I ended up just staying quiet because I knew I would never get a real genuine answer :/ It's sad, but I really hope those that did buy from the presale were able to get their BTC back. Thanks again Tempus for breaking everything down and bringing light where there was always shadow.
Thank you for your honest statement and for the further insight!
Regarding the Testnet: I didn't know that. Just today I've read about a testnet, about Invitation-Mails to all who bought into the ICO and I asked myself: "How did they manage that nobody will figure out that there (most likely) never was much public investing?"
So, thank you for answering that question. ;-)
Inflation: It's still a mystery to me. I think it's one keypoint. Even if they would do anything right, it would be very hard or even impossible to survive the first 2 years with that design. I mean, they've planned that. In their strategy-paper they say this:
If 100% of all NeuCoins were mined continuously for the ten years following launch, the total supply of NeuCoin tokens would exceed 150 billion (growing over 50X). The estimate of 100 billion coin supply after ten years is based on the assumption that the percentage of coins being mined starts at 100% and linearly declines to 50% by year ten. And one obvious question is: In which scenario does it make sense to inflate a Currency so extreme? And I believe, we have to think very big if we want to understand what their strategy is (or was). Let's use Facebook as example. FB has about 1.3 billion User. And let's say, Facebook would implement Neucoin and the FB-User would like it and they would tip each other. What would that be? It's what the Neucoin-Team say: It would be microtransactions. It wouldn't be much about value. FB-User wouldn't buy it on Bittrex or any exchange. There would be an easy way to buy it... maybe something like shapeshift or whatever. They would buy it directly from the "Neucoin-Company". And they wouldn't care too much about questions if the price is at 0.00004 or 0.0004 or 0.000002. It would be something like the "thump up - button".
At the same time, the Neucoin-team would have enough to meet every demand. If there is much, they have enough. If there is not much, they could just hold it. But the thing about it is: They would sell it if there should be greater demand. It wouldn't be those who bought into the ICO or now on an exchange. They would sell it to the people if it would be successful and they wouldn't have too much intention for a much higher price. It's about tipping and in the end there would be > 100 billion. Every FB-User could have 100 NEU and tip with that like they press the tump-up-button.
What I want to say with that (and yes, it's speculative): The inflationary design is needed if you believe in huge User-growth and if you want to make money out of that... What does it need for a "tipping-cryptocurrency" to reach the masses? It has to be fast and it has to be easy to use. It should make some fun but before all: You need people who bang the drum for your project, right? And that's the ICO-crowd. They compare it with Bitcoin and tried to make people believe that those who are early could get rich like the BTC-early-adopters. But it's not their strategy I believe. They would sell it and especially because it's not about trading but masses of users they wouldn't have much intention of volatility. They would always have enough of the dust to meet the demand and fix the price at 1 or 2 or 3 Dollarcent and get rich of it.
Maybe that's the strategy... As I said, it's speculative but that could explain the exponential inflation. Because they would always (!) stake a lot more than the public/market.
But if this theory should be right, they made a huge mistake. Because it's a do-it-or-die concept. At least the first two years it would be highly doubtful to grow that much to distribute just what they stake, because the first year it's just a cryptocurrency that would need public-Investors who bang the drum for it. But they wouldn't do that if they don't see any chance for profit. Investors step back if they see that they could invest 1 BTC and the Neucoin-Group stakes that in minutes. They stake in 2 weeks what they claim to have sold to the public.
And maybe they did believe that there would be a hype right from the beginning. And I have to admit: The psychological design is not that bad. They made some things right. They did a good job to raise trust. Because most of the people would think: Okay, they're all public, they're known, they're professionals... they won't scam. And that's right I believe. I don't believe that this is a "run-away-with-the-money-Scam". But they have too much to hide and they made too much mistakes on the way I don't understand. Maybe they are not skilled as Devs. Maybe they can't be transparent because they don't have the money-backing they claim. I can't know that, but there is the fact that they're not transparent. And that's a great mistake. And I don't understand the problems they obviously have with the tech... the delays. Maybe it's just because they have not much experience in Crypto or whatever.
Like you say:
"I think back then there was some excitement but that just all faded, and people became disenchanted (at least for me)."But the biggest mistake is the PoS-rate. It's a dead end because it lowers every chance to survive the first year. They could do everything right, but this project is kind of irrelevant for Crypto-Traders/Investors because of it's inflation. And even if I would trust them that they won't take the money and run away with it... They would have to inflate the market to grow. That's an important aspect for a user-growth-strategy. They would sell it like dust, just cautios enough not to damage the price. At the same time they wouldn't run out of supply because they produce it like dust. So, why should I buy this? To be excited about it and bang the drum for it? ;-)
The problem they can't handle is: It's visible. It's naive to believe that they would be able to grow without some questions about this business-model. In fact they should fear to go mainstream, because if there would be much attention... what would be the feedback about it? Those who are cricital here are most likely like me, little lights in Crypto. But if real Journalists would look into this and ask questions about it... what would be the result? Take a look at
http://coinfire.io how they've helped to shred the Paycoin-Scam. What would they write if Neucoin would be big? What would they find if they analyze the BTC-Blockchain, if they analyze the Neucoin-Blockchain... it's not distributed right now, what's obvious a problem for them. But I'm sure they had the plan to spread the supply before they come out with an official BE. Didn't they expect that there could be a richlist before they come out with an official BE?
I don't understand all that. The point is: If they would hold every promise, and if they would be skilled regarding the tech and economy and experienced in Crypto and not so greedy... it could work out. They could have started with 1 billion and a 10%-inflation per year, let the market find a price for it, being transparent and so on... it could be a successful project. It could be interesting for public Investors. I believe that Sandrine could be a good CM if she could be open about what's going on and all that.
But now... they're tipping 200 Users, buying the dumps, are very quiet, disperse the ICO-BTC to multiple addresses... and it looks like fraud.