Mine value projectionWhat is the value of a mine and what is the projective value
To determine the value of mine we worked on a business plan. This plan is a projection on what could be the value of a mine. We do it the same way we would have done for an investor in the game. The main difference is instead of raising funds we are pre selling game assets. The decentralised nature of the assets allow them to be traded freely. This way people who participate to the crowdsale will have an idea of the future value of the items they will receive in game for participating.
We are also allowing people to vote on important game decision according to their mine holding.
The assumptions are based on our experience on the mobile game market as well of insight data we got from the industry.
Constants
100’000 mines will be produced in total
They will be given as gift, sold or shared to people helping the game production
The first mines will be sold with the higest discount. Then the price will increase until all mines are sold.
We will start the crowdsale as soon as the mines reach a 3.5 $ value per unit. Before the crowdsale we determine the value of a mine by the project popularity
The popularity is counted this way
1 Twitter follower = 1 point
1 FB like = 1 point
1 email subscriber = 5 points
We will start the crowdsale as soon as the mines reach a 3.5 $ value per unit. Before the crowdsale we determine the value of a mine by the project popularity.
We are offering free mines for people who are getting interested early in the project. We will stop giving away mines when we reach 5000 popularity points and the mines will start to be sold. The earlier you subscribe for free mines the most you get for free. The first to register receives 2 mines and le last 0.1
Assumptions
We based our assumptions as the following
Disclaimer : These are pure assumptions and the success of the game will depend from a lot of factors. Such as our ability to deliver the product, our ability to give visibility. The success of the decentralised stakeholder model as an amazing vector to create traction and buzz around the game.
Risk management : We have 4 years of experience running a gaming community and producing game with Moonga. The game production is handled by EverdreamSoft, a serious startup who already won several prices for innovation and business plans.
1. Pessimistic scenario
The pessimistic scenario states that for the first year of running the game
Monthly active users : 40’000
Average revenue per active user ARPU : 1.3 $
Monthly generated revenue in stores (iOS android) : 52’000 $
Estimated value of gems generated by a mine Monthly : $0.52
Estimated value of a mine 6.50 $ (12x the monthly generated value)
In the pessimistic scenario we estimate to have created a game with an honorable success without reaching anything significant in the game market.
2. Realistic scenario
The realistic scenario states that for the first year of running the game
Monthly active users : 800'000
Average revenue per active user ARPU : 1.6 $
Monthly generated revenue in stores (iOS android) : 1’280’000 $
Estimated value of gems generated by a mine Monthly : $14.22
Estimated value of a mine 170.67 $ (12x the monthly generated value)
In the realistic scenario we estimate to have created a game with a good success in the market 1 million monthly users is a good success for a free to play game. The average revenue per active user is correct better that the pessimistic scenario.
2. Optimistic scenario
The optimistic scenario states that for the first year of running the game
Monthly active users : 30’000'000
Average revenue per active user ARPU : 1.6 $
Monthly generated revenue in stores (iOS android) : 1’280’000 $
Estimated value of gems generated by a mine Monthly : $375.00
Estimated value of a mine 170.67 $ (12x the monthly generated value)
In the optimistic scenario we state that spells of genesis is a game created and owned by the player community. This model bring the game into the top games. The game is comparible to Heartstone or the most grossing games such as Puzzle&Dragon
Either ways you will probably agree that now is the best time to get mines for free without taking any risk. You get a chance to be at the beginning of a very big thing !
Here is the projection table if you
register for mines :