just a question:
if I put 100k nxt on this IPO (i.e the second day) how can you calculate the % of SuperNET I buy?
I mean, value of nxt is changing every second, value of btcd too..
will you consider the value at the IPO start, when I buy or when IPO end? There are many dangers and someone can "play smart"..
We have come up with a way so that you know the moment you purchase you will know how much you will get.
I also tried to make gaming of this quite expensive and no guarantee of success, so it is easier to just buy at current prices.
now if you are able to know the price of NXT (or BTCD) in the 2 to 4 week future, of course you will have a great advantage in deciding the best way to purchase.
So, everybody is buying these tokens using different currencies, but always the same token.
Then at the end the value of all purchases and core assets are creating a total and then you get a prorata share that the tokens you got purchased.
Some simple example.
Say you are liking UNITY cause and buy 1 BTC, this gets you 1 BTC of tokens. We first ignore the bonuses as this complicates the simple example. So now at the end of the IPO, it does not matter if a total of 100 BTC or 10000 BTC comes in!
This is because in the first case your 1 BTC is 1% of 100 BTC = 1 BTC, in the second case your 1 BTC is 0.01% of 10000 BTC = 1 BTC
So, it is a very simple equation when ignoring the bonus.
Now we explore the effect of the time bonus. What this means is that gradually over two weeks, the cost of each token, it is rising. But so very slowly as 15% in 14 days is hardly noticeable. So if you are buying 1 BTC of tokens in the first days you will end up with what is likely more than 1 BTC worth of book (liquidation) value. Now this means you are buying below the liquidation value of the cryptos backing the SuperNET asset, so how is this possible? Alas, it is the ones that are late to purchase that is subsidizing this ~12% difference, at least I estimate it will be around 12%. Of course, the actual discount/premium to the book value that you get highly depends on what day, what currency you use and what the day by day distribution is.
this early bird bonus is for my thanking of the people that are trusting me and investing. The more that comes in, the easier it is for others to also put in their 1 BTC, so I think this is a fair approach, to reward the early peoples. You know how I like to take care of my BTCD and NXT communities, but not to the extent of creating price distortion as 5% is not really arbitragable and this is one third of the early bird bonus, it feels like the right level to me.
Now the game theoretic approach is to not tell anyone about this (or even discourage people) and load up on the early bird bonus and locking in the biggest discount to book value, then when the two weeks is coming to end to start pushing to other people to try to skew the distribution even more. I hope that the spirit of UNITY will encourage people to state their honest opinions about SuperNET purchasing. Since SuperNET is fully backed by the crypto being invested, it is not as if the value of the SuperNET asset gets diluted with more investment coming in. In fact, my assessment is that unless we get some crazy big amounts, the value of each BTC is growing the more is added. This is due to the potential size of the SuperNET userbase that is possible to bind into the SuperNET core.
I am initially thinking of around 20% of SuperNET revenue share to go to the coin communities, proportional to their coins contribution to the revenues. The larger SuperNET is, the larger this revenue share is and the more meaningful the cashflow will be. My hope is to create enough revenue share to allow the CORE coins to accelerate their dev timetables, even expand staffing and thus create an even better coin, which then generates more revenues, which increases the money coming back to the coin community, ...
The plan is thus to create a positive feedback loop to reward the coins that are most effective in creating the revenues and so the more BTC comes in, the more such coin communities can be put into the CORE.
I am having these estimates given to me that are beyond my wildest imaginings and so I also want to add some ability to do more than just have the funds sitting in the escrow HODL'ing. Now before you all start screaming, "aha I knew there was a catch", please listen to the plan.
Now I have not gotten acceptance from Poloniex, but this is an idea I had form my sharkfund0, but I never was able to get it implemented. Now I think there is a good chance for doing this. Assuming that more than X amount of BTC comes in, I would like to setaside some percentage of it for some active tradings on Poloniex. These will have to be special accts that are not able to withdraw and I want to find expert traders to trade some bankroll that I allocate based on how well they do. I am not sure how much will be available for this bankrolls, but of course the better the trader does the larger bankroll they get and for their troubles to earn a 10% of profits seems right. With the possible size of the available funds, even a 10% profits will highly leverage a good trader's revenue. Now there are some protections that are needed, eg. each trader can only be using this special acct to be trading. A combination of trust and tech will need to be used to enforce this. The possibilities of gaming the results are too great if we are not making sure it is the only active trading account for this trader. So, maybe at first they are sacrificing some profits they could make as they are establishing their trackrecord. But to be one of the SuperNET traders, this is some amount of pride and I think that for many who are very good at these tradings, money is not the reason to be trading, but it is always good to feel you are winning.
So this is a call for all the best traders to help the UNITY cause and get the recognition you deserve as the best crypto trader. Maybe some contest prize can be given from the 1% IPO or 10% revenues discretion accts. It all depends on if there are such traders who are wanting to be known as the best. maybe they are wanting privacy?
I realize this now increases the risk profile of the SuperNET by the max amount allocated to these Super traders. So I am not thinking about anything more than 10% of funds raised and that is really only if there are quite some many super traders. I am open to community feedback on the threshold and percentage allocation, but I think this makes use of the sleepy escrow funds and with 10% at risk, it is still overall a pretty good ROI profile for SuperNET as the worst case is if all super traders turn out to be super bad and lose everything. On the positive side, it is quite possible these super traders can get some very nice ROI on 10% of the capital, so if they are doubling it every three months, then this alone is more than doubling the overall SuperNET in a year if it is compounded. I think the key to understand this possibility is that what starts out at 10% -> 20% -> 40% -> 80% -> 160% of the total raised if it can be doubled each quarter and compounded, so clearly this is ridiculous. Let us say 25% gain each quarter: 10% -> 12.5% -> 15.6% -> 19.5% -> 24.4%
yes this is a 14.4% gain in a year and this is much more believable. Maybe over the years the super traders keep the compounding and eventually it will rival the overall fund, but I think the important thing is for this trading operation to get the initial seed capital and then that is all. If it is doubling, then the super traders get double the bankroll, if they are losing half, then half. So it is onetime initial funding and only if we are exceeding, let us say 5000 BTC raised. I do not want to divert funds needed for coin communities for super traders
James