IF the hard fork does not happen, the scenario below will happen:
Right now, there seems to be only about 4-6 people with confirmed ECA in their wallet. By block 11880, about 20-30 people will have confirmed ECA for staking as there were some people mining 150 blocks before the bonanza. I estimate it will take about 16-17 days to reach block 11880 if the 4-6 people stake daily. When the next 20-30 people, assuming they transferred some ECA from the pool to their wallets get confirmed, the next block where many people will be confirmed is 11950. Block 11950 will take 4 days to reach if everyone who became confirmed on block 11880 stake daily. After that confirmed ECA in wallets will be in the 100s and things will move much faster. Everyone remaining can get their ECA within 1-2 days. This scenario is based on many assumptions and I believe a fork would be a much better solution.
Keep in mind that this kind of distribution of coins was never tried before and it was hard to anticipate while originally designing some parameters how many people would be using the coin before the Bonanza and after it.
I do have a very small amount of coins in wallet, like 0.004 ECA, but I don't think that these coins matter much in terms of pushing the network.