let's analyse what makes an altcoin successful.
- is it media coverage?
- is it merchant adoption?
- is it a large mining network?
- is it pure speculation?
what affects the price of an altcoin?
- is it the price set by an "IPO"? (by the way, there are still issues with the legality of an IPO)
- is it the supply/demand on the exchanges for the altcoin.
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Possible answers:First some background.At first altcoins were the answer to problems that did emerge with bitcoin. Then came November 2013, bitcoin price shot up almost 10 fold and literally everyone, their parents and their pets started releasing coins. All you need to do is fork an existing coin, make a few changes and off you go. There are even services that will do that for you for a mere 0.1 BTC.
Litecoin had good timing on its side. The people who used to mine bitcoin with GPUs no longer could do it profitably, Litecoin allowed them again to mine at a profit.
Dogecoin came out of nowhere in December 2013 as a joke. It suffered a hacker attack in the first couple of weeks, but it survived. Then it got big. How? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe it was the genius marketing, if it was intentional. Maybe it was the fact that it was supposed to be a joke, maybe it was none of the above.
Late 2013 companies started working on scrypt ASICs, it was becoming obvious that we need a new algorithm for GPU miners. Enter Darkcoin. Its creator gave us X11, and now GPU miners can move over to something different once difficulty for scrypt coins shoots up squeezing GPUs out.
Then in February 2014 the creator of Auroracoin came up with a clever idea of a nation coin. Give some of the coins away to citizens of a nation and voila, you got a coin with some credibility.
The idea was really good, so good in fact that nation coins were coming out daily by the dozen. There are probably more nation coins now that there are countries.
Then came the idea of an IPO for a coin. To me that idea is absurd. There is no prospectus, no revenue, no business plan, just an anonymous promise of profit (if all goes well).
I have heard of disastrous altcoin IPOs, but I have not heard of successful ones (Which does not mean there aren't any. Please point me to some)
So here we are looking at yet another coin hoping to finally get on a coin and make it big (just like those bitcoin millionaires that the media keeps on talking about). Is this coin going to give us all we are hoping for - who knows?
Media CoverageWhile media coverage can hype up the coin, it is this writer's opinion that currently there is an altcoin-fatigue. Virtual currency is supposed to be better that fiat currency. Bitcoin promised that by being a global currency. Currently there are more altcoins than countries. There are coins for a specific purpose, specific area, and non-specific coins as well. How is this situation better than fiat currency remains unanswered. While media coverage helps to spread the awareness of the coin, it probably does not help with merchant adoption, service creation, and gaining an edge over more established currencies.
I will leave it up to the reader to answer and argue the remaining questions I posed.