Looking at all your calculations, I must agree: No ROI in sight.
But on the other hand, for me there is more than only the ROI why I invest in mining equipment.
First of all, I don't want to see the whole mining business in the hands of some few big corporations. Although I'm a small miner, I still can afford mining. And as long as many other people do this, there's a chance that the big corps won't take over all.
Secondly: You always calculate in a very simplistic way: Investment - costs - Earnings. This may be a very traditional and old fashioned way of some bankers who have as much investment spirit as a glas of water has. I can tell you: If I would calculate like this, I'd had lost money over the years. But I haven't. How comes? Because I believe in ideas of people. So with every little BTC I gain, I make a small investment. Some Satoshis here, some there, sometimes a couple of Bitcoins. And yes: This is risky, sometimes. And yes: Sometimes I do lose money. But after all, I was able to triple my mining investment over the last 12 months.
So again: I agree. If you are a simple-minded banker who calculates with ROI, you will lose money with mining. If you are beliveing in Bitcoin and if you are willing to support Bitcoin, you may win.
Okay, I already can hear your next sentence: Why don't you just buy your Bitcoins, so you would be able to make much more money. And my simple answer would be: Because I'm not a banker, but someone who believes that Bitcoin will play an important role in the future's financial and also social system. A banker doesn't care but only sees ROI. So go ahead, buy some Bitcoins which were mined by big companies. Support them. Make your ROI. Good luck....
I enjoyed reading this reply, for once someone with similar realistic views
I completely agree with everything you have said. What I should have also mentioned within my post is that I too enjoy mining for fun rather than ROI, obviously if ROI is there then it's an added bonus. But I enjoy mining purely for the interest in the community, the progression of the bitcoin and for the fun of it. With all of my calculations being said, I still plan on buying a couple of these and like I said previously, mining for 2-3 months and then selling them on. I'll probably make a very slim profit but it will have been a fun hobby to take up some of my evening time.
All of that aside, I just hate seeing posts like "OMG, just ordered 4 of these, can't wait to be making so much money!" The typical,
I've just heard about this 'bitcoin mining' craze and I'm gonna triple my investment! bla bla bla.
As lots have mentioned though, BITMAIN have already mined the shit out of the best difficulty with the S3's and probably (I obviously don't have the figures to back this up) have made a lot of money over their original investment in hardware for the S3 before they even put them up for sale. Then add on top the amount they make from selling them, even at the current price, they will fly right off the shelf's because of these big businesses bulk purchasing or the silly unrealistic people like previously mentioned who haven't done their homework and just lost interest in research as soon as they saw the money they '
could' be making. All of that taken into consideration, why would they lower the price of the S3? The only possible reason for that could be if they were interested in securing the future of these silly over-eager miners to become return customers. Otherwise once they realize they have lost money they won't likely be returning haha. That, or the market takes a turn.
Another thing that is also interesting at the moment is the difficulty swooping down. Assuming the total hash rate has just dipped, I'd guess a couple big players have simply dropped off the market for now (could be too encourage sales into the market now, which would be a very clever marketing tactic). This is all complete speculation though as I haven't properly checked the hash distribution charts, nor have I been keeping track of their progression in the past couple days. Been too busy with my job, a real
secure income! haha
Sorry for the long post, I do enjoy these conversations though. Although I'm relatively new to mining, I find the whole structure of it fascinating!
