[Archive] BFL trolling museum - page 128.

cablepair

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Buy this account on March-2019. New Owner here!!

Quote from: eldentyrell on June 16, 2012, 01:46:09 AM

Quote from: bravetheheat on June 16, 2012, 01:15:50 AM

Quote

1) BitForce SC Jalapeno: a USB powered coffee warmer providing 3.5 GH/s, priced at under $149

1. A USB port can deliver 2.5 Watts.

2. This means they are claiming 1,400 MH/J.

3. The current record is under 25 MH/J, so they are claiming a 5600% improvement in power efficiency.

Does anybody here believe this?

I call bullshit.

thank you.

on a side note:

How long do you think BFL will mine on their wonder ASICs before making them available to the public?

How long before gigavps buys 51% of the network with his American Express card?

If this PAID-ADVERTISEMENT :http://news.yahoo.com/butterfly-labs-announces-next-generation-asic-lineup-054626776.html

is only half true Bitcoin is completely screwed.

MrTeal

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Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 11:10:17 AM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 16, 2012, 10:58:56 AM

I would assume the same, that the single ASIC is 3.5GH/s. Still, that doesn't change the fact that they are going to have fixed costs. Even if the chips are free, they need to place 286 of them in a minirig. That's going to have no insignificant expenses for PCBs, power supplies, and cases. Do you think they would be able to ship a Minirig even with free ASICs for $300?

Current minirigs? Barely I guess. If nothing else, those heatpiped heatsinks arent exactly free.
The minirig SC? who knows. Lets wait and see if there really are 200+ asics in there, and how much or how little support logic etc they need; but if you doubt its at all possible to cram tons of asics on a PCB cheaply, look no further than some memory modules. They cost like a dollar more than the chips on them.

Regardless if 100x lower end user products are feasible, even if its "only" 20x or 50x it doesnt really change the issue. A miners ROI will still go up from, say, 1 year to his lifetime.

Memory makers have much greater economies of scale that BFL does. I'd imagine BFL will be looking at 1000s of units, not tens of millions.

I'm making a couple assumptions here, but I don't imagine I'm far off. First, the MiniRig will use an array of singles PCBs, similar to the current setup. I would guess that the future SC MiniRigs will go in the same cases as the current MiniRigs, which probably cost BFL well over $100 in the small quantities they buy. I'm going to estimate power draw for 1TH at 500W-1kW or so, so there's going to be a pretty beefy power supply, as well as each of the 25 single boards carrying a 12V to Vcc power supply. Add on assembly and test costs, and I don't think a small outfit could reasonably get Minirigs out the door for less than $1000 with any kind of profit.

Hawkix

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It seems 2013 will be very interesting year for Bitcoin. (No, they will not deliver in 2012, I can bet on it).

||bit

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Whatever happens, I suppose it would make more sense that they ship the smallest units first and more frequently. Not just because they can be made faster, but also to distribute the hashing power across more individual miners. So, if one is wanting to beat the curve on this upcoming ASIC frontier, it might be best to order the $149 modules in bulk rather than go for a $30k rig.

I'd rather have 200 of those small cards now, than a nice slightly faster rig at the same cost 6 months from now.

P4man

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Quote from: MrTeal on June 16, 2012, 10:58:56 AM

I would assume the same, that the single ASIC is 3.5GH/s. Still, that doesn't change the fact that they are going to have fixed costs. Even if the chips are free, they need to place 286 of them in a minirig. That's going to have no insignificant expenses for PCBs, power supplies, and cases. Do you think they would be able to ship a Minirig even with free ASICs for $300?

Current minirigs? Barely I guess. If nothing else, those heatpiped heatsinks arent exactly free.
The minirig SC? who knows. Lets wait and see if there really are 200+ asics in there, and how much or how little support logic etc they need; but if you doubt its at all possible to cram tons of asics on a PCB cheaply, look no further than some memory modules. They cost like a dollar more than the chips on them.

Regardless if 100x lower end user products are feasible, even if its "only" 20x or 50x it doesnt really change the issue. A miners ROI will still go up from, say, 1 year to his lifetime.

bulanula

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Quote from: interlagos on June 16, 2012, 11:06:46 AM

My best guess is that trade in policy will only be unit for unit within a product category.
Meaning you can only trade in 1 "old" single for 1 "new" single, 1 "old" minirig for 1 "new" minirig. And jalapenos will be sold without any trade ins. This way they will still be getting $$$ flow with every sale or trade in. Mark my words

words marked.

It can be true. They said "full terms of tradein to be announced at a later date" = they can screw you hard if you are stupid and believe their marketing.

interlagos

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My best guess is that trade in policy will only be unit for unit within a product category.
Meaning you can only trade in 1 "old" single for 1 "new" single, 1 "old" minirig for 1 "new" minirig. And jalapenos will be sold without any trade ins. This way they will still be getting $$$ flow with every sale or trade in. Mark my words

sadpandatech

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Quote from: Paladin69 on June 16, 2012, 11:01:59 AM

Yeah...talk about disruptive technology...lol Most of the 21 million bitcoins would be mined in no time compared to the original estimates...

the difficulty changes every 2 weeks. So unless we could online this massive amount of hash power in that timeline, difficulty will quickly increase to keep the block generation as close to 144 per day as possible.

MrTeal

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Quote from: Paladin69 on June 16, 2012, 11:01:59 AM

okay so 1 SC Single @ @$1299 is equal to 11.42 SC Jalapenos. Round it down to 11 Jalapeno's and that would cost $1639. If you can swing for an SC Single, it is like getting two extra Jalapeno's for free to process the same amount of hashes.

As for the SC mini-rig, you would need to buy 25 SC Singles to reach 1TH/s for a total of $32,475. You save the cost of two SC Singles for a total of $2,576 if you just go with the rig.

$30K is a bit steep though. I'd rather just buy 12 SC Singles for a little more than the cost of a single previous generation $15K mini-rig which would still let me process 480 GH/s. It makes absolutely no economical sense anymore to get the current mini-rig for $15K but process 25GH/s.

The only way it makes sense is if the SC's take another year to get here.

But man, 480 GH/s would produce 274.46 BTC per day at the current difficulty. That would be 8,233.8 BTC per month x $6.53 mt gox exchange = $53,766.71 per month.

Yeah...talk about disruptive technology...lol Most of the 21 million bitcoins would be mined in no time compared to the original estimates...

No, I think the timeline will be pretty stable.

Paladin69

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okay so 1 SC Single @ @$1299 is equal to 11.42 SC Jalapenos. Round it down to 11 Jalapeno's and that would cost $1639. If you can swing for an SC Single, it is like getting two extra Jalapeno's for free to process the same amount of hashes.

As for the SC mini-rig, you would need to buy 25 SC Singles to reach 1TH/s for a total of $32,475. You save the cost of two SC Singles for a total of $2,576 if you just go with the rig.

$30K is a bit steep though. I'd rather just buy 12 SC Singles for a little more than the cost of a single previous generation $15K mini-rig which would still let me process 480 GH/s. It makes absolutely no economical sense anymore to get the current mini-rig for $15K but process 25GH/s.

The only way it makes sense is if the SC's take another year to get here.

But man, 480 GH/s would produce 274.46 BTC per day at the current difficulty. That would be 8,233.8 BTC per month x $6.53 mt gox current exchange = $53,766.71 per month. WTF that can't be right?

Yeah...talk about disruptive technology...lol Most of the 21 million bitcoins would be mined in no time compared to the original estimates...

MrTeal

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Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 10:42:39 AM

Quote from: MrTeal on June 16, 2012, 10:30:21 AM

I would be surprised is BFL could get prices 100x lower than they are now, without a new mask set. They might be able to get a really good price on the wafers, but they've already made a decision on die size. If they want to add more power they have to place more dies on a board, and they'll have a price floor based on the production cost of PCBs, cases, etc.

To produce, chips are cheap as... well, chips. Assuming their 3.5 GH coffee warmer contains a single asic, and assuming its made on 130nm, and assuming my previous projections were roughly correct (1-10TH per wafer, which costs < $1000), variable silicon production cost of that chip would be in the $0.5 range. Okay, thats a lot of assumptions, but you get the idea.

Obviously there is no point in trying to build a $1.5 dollar miner around that, put putting dozens of those chips on a PCB and putting dozens of PCBs in a case isnt rocket science and isnt going to cost 10x more than the asic itself.

I also wouldnt rule out the possibility these chips are not running anywhere near their full potential in the first products, but are instead capped, particularly in the coffee warmer. Its what I would do if I were BFL.

I would assume the same, that the single ASIC is 3.5GH/s. Still, that doesn't change the fact that they are going to have fixed costs. Even if the chips are free, they need to place 286 of them in a minirig. That's going to have no insignificant expenses for PCBs, power supplies, and cases. Do you think they would be able to ship a Minirig even with free ASICs for $300?

cunicula

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Quote from: DutchBrat on June 16, 2012, 10:56:43 AM

Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: DutchBrat on June 16, 2012, 10:39:23 AM

But isn't this exactly what Bitcoin needs.... when the blockreward is gone, the speed of confirmations is totally dependant on transaction fees. For Bitcoin to be able to compete with PayPal or Credit Cards the transaction fees should remain low compared to the transaction size. The only way to achieve this is when 'miners' have access to ASICs at almost cost price that use little to NO energy, else the network will come to a screeching halt for only idealists will help process transactions that are costing them money

There's No way the network will survive on GPUs wthout a blockreward, transactions would simply be too costly to process

It doesnt matter one yota if transactions are processed by a a handful of slow 100W CPUs or a gazillion 0.001mW ASICs. All that changes is difficulty, and arguably, security of the network, though that argument can go both ways.

That is not completely true, difficulty only changes to keep the time constant in which a block is mined, it has got nothing to do with the amount of energy that is spent on it

With ASICs being more energy efficient than a CPU (not to mention a GPU) by a magnitude of XXX (no idea what the numbers are) it is less likely for a transaction fee to be lower than the actual energy cost spent on processing the underlying transaction. As mining is now NOT profitable in some parts of the world on a GPU when a 50 BTC reward is attached to a block, imagine what it will be like if there's only transaction fees incorporated in a block. By that time there need to be solutions that cost next to nothing to purchase and use as little energy as possible....

No, P4Man is correct.

DutchBrat

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Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 10:46:10 AM

Quote from: DutchBrat on June 16, 2012, 10:39:23 AM

But isn't this exactly what Bitcoin needs.... when the blockreward is gone, the speed of confirmations is totally dependant on transaction fees. For Bitcoin to be able to compete with PayPal or Credit Cards the transaction fees should remain low compared to the transaction size. The only way to achieve this is when 'miners' have access to ASICs at almost cost price that use little to NO energy, else the network will come to a screeching halt for only idealists will help process transactions that are costing them money

There's No way the network will survive on GPUs wthout a blockreward, transactions would simply be too costly to process

It doesnt matter one yota if transactions are processed by a a handful of slow 100W CPUs or a gazillion 0.001mW ASICs. All that changes is difficulty, and arguably, security of the network, though that argument can go both ways.

That is not completely true, difficulty only changes to keep the time constant in which a block is mined, it has got nothing to do with the amount of energy that is spent on it

With ASICs being more energy efficient than a CPU (not to mention a GPU) by a magnitude of XXX (no idea what the numbers are) it is less likely for a transaction fee to be lower than the actual energy cost spent on processing the underlying transaction. As mining is now NOT profitable in some parts of the world on a GPU when a 50 BTC reward is attached to a block, imagine what it will be like if there's only transaction fees incorporated in a block. By that time there need to be solutions that cost next to nothing to purchase and use as little energy as possible....

cunicula

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Quote from: DutchBrat on June 16, 2012, 10:39:23 AM

Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 10:24:14 AM

There will not be an equilibrium until asic per GH market prices approach variable production cost, which is probably ~100x lower than these announced prices. How long that will take is what is completely unpredictable, unless you are BFL's CEO and no competitor will emerge. But if you think you can accurately predict price/difficulty 24 months from now, be my guest. I wouldnt dare bet if its 3x or 100x what it is now.

But isn't this exactly what Bitcoin needs.... when the blockreward is gone, the speed of confirmations is totally dependant on transaction fees. For Bitcoin to be able to compete with PayPal or Credit Cards the transaction fees should remain low compared to the transaction size. The only way to achieve this is when 'miners' have access to ASICs at almost cost price that use little to NO energy, else the network will come to a screeching halt for only idealists will help process transactions that are costing them money

There's No way the network will survive on GPUs wthout a blockreward, transactions would simply be too costly to process

Exactly what bitcoin needs is proof of stake, of course.

||bit

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Quote from: cunicula on June 16, 2012, 10:13:26 AM

Quote from: ||bit on June 16, 2012, 10:09:38 AM

Also, just buying bitcoins might be a better move. Imagine when the difficulty starts to double, quadruple, 10x, 20x.... Miner will have fewer bitcoins to sell. Supply starts to shrink. Demand stays relatively the same [or increases after anything like QE3]. Econ 101.

I hope you either flunked or have never taken Econ 101. If not, your instructor deserves a caning.

I see the fault in my idea, but what I see has nothing to do with Econ 101.

Bulanula commented that the difficulty would still be the same for everyone, which reminds me that bitcoin dispensing will occur at the programmed rate over the community regardless of difficulty changes.

So, maybe buying hardware is better. Unless his dream of bitcoins popping to $10 are likely.

bulanula

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Anybody using http://www.easic.com/ Grin

P4man

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Quote from: DutchBrat on June 16, 2012, 10:39:23 AM

But isn't this exactly what Bitcoin needs.... when the blockreward is gone, the speed of confirmations is totally dependant on transaction fees. For Bitcoin to be able to compete with PayPal or Credit Cards the transaction fees should remain low compared to the transaction size. The only way to achieve this is when 'miners' have access to ASICs at almost cost price that use little to NO energy, else the network will come to a screeching halt for only idealists will help process transactions that are costing them money

There's No way the network will survive on GPUs wthout a blockreward, transactions would simply be too costly to process

It doesnt matter one yota if transactions are processed by a a handful of slow 100W CPUs or a gazillion 0.001mW ASICs. All that changes is difficulty, and arguably, security of the network, though that argument can go both ways.

sadpandatech

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Quote from: DutchBrat on June 16, 2012, 10:39:23 AM

Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 10:24:14 AM

There will not be an equilibrium until asic per GH market prices approach variable production cost, which is probably ~100x lower than these announced prices. How long that will take is what is completely unpredictable, unless you are BFL's CEO and no competitor will emerge. But if you think you can accurately predict price/difficulty 24 months from now, be my guest. I wouldnt dare bet if its 3x or 100x what it is now.

But isn't this exactly what Bitcoin needs.... when the blockreward is gone, the speed of confirmations is totally dependant on transaction fees. For Bitcoin to be able to compete with PayPal or Credit Cards the transaction fees should remain low compared to the transaction size. The only way to achieve this is when 'miners' have access to ASICs at almost cost price that use little to NO energy, else the network will come to a screeching halt for only idealists will help process transactions that are costing them money

There's No way the network will survive on GPUs wthout a blockreward, transactions would simply be too costly to process

I think the real, underlying issue here is timing. We have years to go yet before block reward is an issue on its own. But throw asic into the mix too fast and we start having an incentive to mine issue, or could protentially have one much sooner. I personally think it will all be fine, but can see where the concern is because it is there in the math on face value..

cheers

P4man

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Quote from: MrTeal on June 16, 2012, 10:30:21 AM

I would be surprised is BFL could get prices 100x lower than they are now, without a new mask set. They might be able to get a really good price on the wafers, but they've already made a decision on die size. If they want to add more power they have to place more dies on a board, and they'll have a price floor based on the production cost of PCBs, cases, etc.

To produce, chips are cheap as... well, chips. Assuming their 3.5 GH coffee warmer contains a single asic, and assuming its made on 130nm, and assuming my previous projections were roughly correct (1-10TH per wafer, which costs < $1000), variable silicon production cost of that chip would be in the $0.5 range. Okay, thats a lot of assumptions, but you get the idea.

Obviously there is no point in trying to build a $1.5 dollar miner around that, put putting dozens of those chips on a PCB and putting dozens of PCBs in a case isnt rocket science and isnt going to cost 10x more than the asic itself.

I also wouldnt rule out the possibility these chips are not running anywhere near their full potential in the first products, but are instead capped, particularly in the coffee warmer. Its what I would do if I were BFL.

DutchBrat

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Quote from: P4man on June 16, 2012, 10:24:14 AM

There will not be an equilibrium until asic per GH market prices approach variable production cost, which is probably ~100x lower than these announced prices. How long that will take is what is completely unpredictable, unless you are BFL's CEO and no competitor will emerge. But if you think you can accurately predict price/difficulty 24 months from now, be my guest. I wouldnt dare bet if its 3x or 100x what it is now.

But isn't this exactly what Bitcoin needs.... when the blockreward is gone, the speed of confirmations is totally dependant on transaction fees. For Bitcoin to be able to compete with PayPal or Credit Cards the transaction fees should remain low compared to the transaction size. The only way to achieve this is when 'miners' have access to ASICs at almost cost price that use little to NO energy, else the network will come to a screeching halt for only idealists will help process transactions that are costing them money

There's No way the network will survive on GPUs wthout a blockreward, transactions would simply be too costly to process

Topic: [Archive] BFL trolling museum - page 128. (Read 69394 times)