Topic: ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended- - page 5. (Read 102569 times)
was there an escrow for those blades?
I do not think his assumption is that bad. Just back into what the HR would be. He does not HR above 150,000GH until August. So, if you have 60 now plus over 40 each for avalon batch II and III you are already at 140, plus friedcat puts you ABOVE his estimate for august. And I do not think it will take until august for friedcat to roll out 10TH plus avalon will have their 80TH out there probably by start of July.
Exactly. It is likely the month-to-month will be actually higher than 35% in the immediate future, and then lower than 35% the rest of 2013 and early 2014.
Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
Merely taking into account the known hashrate that is about to hit the network in the next 6-12 months adds up to 250-1000 Thash/s. If added progressively over time, it is mathematically equivalent to a continuous 35% month-over-month growth for the next 4 (no BFL) to 10 (BFL included) months.
And add up the unknown hashrate from unknown miners or future vendors, and it is not hard to imagine this 35% growth could last 12 months. After 12 months, my numbers assume the growth would stop, so I don't even have to invoke indefinite exponential growth to come to my conclusion.
Let's put it this way: if you don't plan for a 35% increase month-over-month over a short period of time of 12 months... well let's just say you are in for a serious surprise !
I invite you to see http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png showing the CPU to GPU transition alone was able to sustain +115% month-over-month exponential growth for 18 months. So really, +35% for 12 months is totally realistic especially given the BTC exchange rate that is likely to shoot up.
Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
Merely taking into account the known hashrate that is about to hit the network in the next 6-12 months adds up to 250-1000 Thash/s. If added progressively over time, it is mathematically equivalent to a continuous 35% month-over-month growth for the next 4 (no BFL) to 10 (BFL included) months.
And add up the unknown hashrate from unknown miners or future vendors, and it is not hard to imagine this 35% growth could last 12 months. After 12 months, my numbers assume the growth would stop, so I don't even have to invoke indefinite exponential growth to come to my conclusion.
Let's put it this way: if you don't plan for a 35% increase month-over-month over a short period of time of 12 months... well let's just say you are in for a serious surprise !
I invite you to see http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png showing the CPU to GPU transition alone was able to sustain +115% month-over-month exponential growth for 18 months. So really, +35% for 12 months is totally realistic especially given the BTC exchange rate that is likely to shoot up.
It'd be nice if the winners would post some public reviews of the product once they receive and test it. I think us - stockholders would greatly appreciate it.
Congratulations to the victors.
Which part of "First we deploy 12 TH/s, a few months later 50 TH/s and few months after that 200TH/s" is linear?..
Maybe it's linear if you use a logarithmic scale?
PM'ed friedcat, 75 BTC ready to send
Quote
- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)
Here's a good analysis of the short term difficulty curve. If there is a magician who can extrapolate beyond this point PLEASE CONTACT ME! (Yea, right!)
Well, I think you're all crazy, but well done anyway I guess 
I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear.
Which part of "First we deploy 12 TH/s, a few months later 50 TH/s and few months after that 200TH/s" is linear?..
Oh, good points. Price wise, it's not competitive, but energy-wise it is. So I guess it just means they'll be running it for a very, very long time before it pays off.
electricity, heat, noise, space...
plus setting up the motherboards, cpu's, GPU's, RAM, powersuppiles.
Stacking the units into a sensible order
Not to mention the drivers + OS config, automation, then fine tuning.
Its quite alot of effort!
For the same $, you could have bought GPUs and had 13.5 GH!
electricity, heat, noise, space...
plus setting up the motherboards, cpu's, GPU's, RAM, powersuppiles.
Stacking the units into a sensible order
Not to mention the drivers + OS config, automation, then fine tuning.
Its quite alot of effort!
Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:
[...]
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
[...]
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear. If you calculate linear growth (difficulty +3.5M per month) instead, break-even comes after 10 months.
I also don't understand where you got the +100% per month in the last 2 months.
1st of March: ~4M
1st of April: ~6.5M
now (and until 1st of May): ~9M
That's +2.5M per month and even lower than I've calculated with.
The estimate is not that bad. Bfl is the true dark horse when it comes to profitability.
Just look at the diff from friedcat and avalon just scratching the surface of what they have planned.
Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:
[...]
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
[...]
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear. If you calculate linear growth (difficulty +3.5M per month) instead, break-even comes after 10 months.
I also don't understand where you got the +100% per month in the last 2 months.
1st of March: ~4M
1st of April: ~6.5M
now (and until 1st of May): ~9M
That's +2.5M per month and even lower than I've calculated with.
Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
[/quote]Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
I do not think his assumption is that bad. Just back into what the HR would be. He does not HR above 150,000GH until August. So, if you have 60 now plus over 40 each for avalon batch II and III you are already at 140, plus friedcat puts you ABOVE his estimate for august. And I do not think it will take until august for friedcat to roll out 10TH plus avalon will have their 80TH out there probably by start of July.
I didn't buy this blade to get a return from mining with it.
Also called kamikaze mining 
I didn't buy this blade to get a return from mining with it.
Jump to: