Topic: ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended- - page 6. (Read 102569 times)

We are getting off-topic. Let's not derail this thread. PM me or open a new thread if you want to discuss.

kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:

Month 0 (10.0M diff): mined 16.45 BTC, total = 16.45 BTC
Month 1 (13.5M diff): mined 12.18 BTC, total = 28.63 BTC
Month 2 (18.2M diff): mined 9.02 BTC, total = 37.66 BTC
Month 3 (24.6M diff): mined 6.68 BTC, total = 44.34 BTC
Month 4 (33.2M diff): mined 4.95 BTC, total = 49.29 BTC
Month 5 (44.8M diff): mined 3.67 BTC, total = 52.96 BTC
Month 6 (60.5M diff): mined 2.72 BTC, total = 55.68 BTC
Month 7 (81.7M diff): mined 2.01 BTC, total = 57.69 BTC
Month 8 (110.3M diff): mined 1.49 BTC, total = 59.18 BTC
Month 9 (148.9M diff): mined 1.10 BTC, total = 60.28 BTC
Month 10 (201.1M diff): mined 0.82 BTC, total = 61.10 BTC
Month 11 (271.4M diff): mined 0.61 BTC, total = 61.71 BTC
Month 12 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.16 BTC
Month 13 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.61 BTC
Month 14 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.05 BTC
Month 15 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.50 BTC
Month 16 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.95 BTC
Month 17 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.40 BTC
Month 18 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.85 BTC
Month 19 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.30 BTC
Month 20 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.75 BTC
Month 21 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.20 BTC
Month 22 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.65 BTC
Month 23 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 67.09 BTC

...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.

I agree with your statement above but your signature does not make sense.  I have clicked through on it and almost ALL the people in your signature DO BELIEVE in asics and you have linked to them making what have turned out to be EXACTLY correct predictions about the feasibility of certain liar's claims.

Ludicrous. They will break even in 4-5 months only if the difficulty stays constant for the next 4-5 months! Suffice it to say, it is not going to stay constant...

Even discounting BFL, there are many other entities that will increase the hashrate:
- ASICMINER self-mining (12 Thash/s of blades manufactured, 50 Thash/s to be presumably deployed in the next month, and 200 Thash/s even later)
- ASICMINER future hardware sales (these 0.1 Thash/s of blades were just the beginning... like I said above, they manufactured 12 Thash/s of them so far and will build many more)
- Avalon ASIC batch #2 (40 Thash/s minimum)
- Avalon ASIC batch #3 (40 Thash/s minimum)
- Avalon OEM chip sales (anywhere from 10-100 Thash/s)
- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)

If you do the math, a month-to-month hashrate increase of 35% is sufficient to guarantee that the people who bought these blades will basically never make their coins back. They bought them (I hope) to selflessly support the network, and for historical reasons.

Math takes all the fun out of gambling!   

Congratulations to all the winners.  If you missed out and still want an ASIC, I have an Avalon batch 1 on-hand unit for sale at much lower price on per GH/s basis: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wts-avalon-asic-batch-1-currently-on-hand-immediate-availability-178635

About future auctions, from the official Asicminer thread, by friedcat:

A cool $84k in mining hardware just went through the ring 

Who said bitcoin is not backed by anything? 

plus setting up the motherboards, cpu's, GPU's, RAM, powersuppiles.

Stacking the units into a sensible order

Not to mention the drivers + OS config, automation, then fine tuning.

Its quite alot of effort!

Quoted the wrong person.  I really should pull over...

Power supplies, memory, CPU, mobos.  Evidently this guy never had to babysit 20+ video cards...

Almost 100k$ in sales... from 10 devices.  Unbelievable!  My butt hurts - I knew I shouldn't have tried bidding while driving.  Congrats, and hopefully auction #2 will be soon.

thanks, everyone. when is the next round...  

electricity, heat, noise, space...

For the same $, you could have bought GPUs and had 13.5 GH!

you may double it 

Hi John,

They are not closed cases, but open sub-racks used on closed racks or open shelves. We would not recommend any end-users to buy them at their current version. Thanks.

Best regards,

friedcat