Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1079. (Read 3917543 times)

Friedcat, respond to your PM's

Interesting, the numbers i've run are similar. I've drawn up a number of scenarios trying to value this and in most of them, the stock is not expensive currently (even at 2.5) if 20%-25% of the network hashrate is maintained and annual hardware sales are in the 2-4x range of recent known sales. How crazy that is really comes down to whether AM can get and deploy 10x what they have now. I don't see a reason to think they can't given their track record.

Another thing motivating AM share growth right now is that people have very limited other investment options. No one else is shipping ASICS in 1-2 days from purchase (or even 1-2 months), so if you want to mine, you go with AM. No other asic manufacturer lets you buy stock in their company, so if you want to invest in a mining company, you go with AM.

They are the closest thing to a bluechip that exists in Bitcoin land. That should carry a very healthy premium when all is said and done. People need to run the numbers themselves, but in my humble and obviously biased opinion, the stock isn't expensive from a value perspective.  

Then of course, there is speculation. I mean, wait until Techcrunch does an article on the company that went from 0 to $120m in 8 months with only 200k in startup capital and who doesn't even have a website. Wait until Forbes writes an article on the 6k investment 8 months ago that is now worth over a million dollars. That's when crazy time starts.

• Sell high: done @ 2.49
• Buy low: pending, waiting for some FUD and/or hash rate drop

Basically that's the idea. How high the stock price can go is up to your personal opinion, for example by collecting pieces of advice here.

But let's be clear again: I am and will be holding most of my shares. AM is the best.

5 dollars bad. 5BTC better

I don't think so dude.

IPO Price was 0.1 BTC/share (1 BTC @ $12) so about $1.20/share

Now it's ~2 BTC/share (1 BTC @ 125) so about $250/share

It has grown quite a bit 

imagine these passthough shares at 5 dollars a piece, I think 5 a piece is a good #

Thought you guys should see my charts from the other day when i decided to buy more at 1.7. Power is simply adjusted Ths/ MM Difficulty. Seems to correlate with pice obv. Power estimate is based on +200 Ths over next 90 days in first image, and +100 in 2nd image, as of a few days ago.

 

Spiking through 0.25 or breaking either way 2 days is fast

we didnt even reach our dividend yet, shit, im holding my couple grand I invested, we should see 3btc a share imminently

I love AM too, but 2.5 feels crazy at this point.   Considering selling some off.

not many people know about asicminer just yet, as people learn more about it, and how it can be more profitable to hold asicminer shares than wait on an asic, the shares should rise, dividends might be low this week because of btcguild having issues, but the solo mining may however make up for that small amount of time, it looks like there is plenty of demand, so prices should be stable and continue to rise, anyone else care to explain it better than me?

if you sell there, buy them back on havelock at .0200 a share  make .0030/share profit

Well I just clicked cancel, the sell side of the order book was building up above my ask anyway.
I wanted to buy the 10 shares back anyway (below $2/share), let's be clear about this.

But seriously, do you think the stock price is going above 2.5 for a long time? How sustainable is that price?

Always a hot commodity guess the calculation to the board seat is getting closer causing some frenzy
Either that or the solo mining
Ha-ha this is becoming a speculator troll box

Don't sell Matt..... bad idea!!!! 

Yes it's unbelievable... The 10 sell orders @2.49 are mine, I love AM but here there's a bargain to be made ;-)

Dear god, 2.499/share... People must know something I don't...

Edit: 2.5/share!!! Holy cow!!

And here's another solo AM block at 237135. I wonder how much % is now solo mining.

In other news, we're about to break 2.3+ on BTC-TC. That's insane IMHO but it feels good for the portfolio :-)

EDIT: here we are, it just traded at 2.35

I don't disagree with you entirely, and I could be wrong about this but I'm coming to the conclusion that it won't matter too much deducing what the hash rate is as:

- AM have no incentive to publicize it
- solo hash rate will change all the time anyway
- earnings from solo mining are what matters, not hash rate

Tied up in that are some assumptions about cost of manufacture and operation; however if we assume that they are both fairly low we can just come up with an estimate to turn revenue from solo mining into earnings. Shareholders are just used to being able to assess their expected income from hash rate because the pool stats are visible.

I am suggesting that while it would be nice to know the solo hash rate, I don't think it matters that much as the blockchain will tell us what solo revenue is anyway and we can deduce earnings from that.

Prediction: when gen-2 ASICs arrive, they will be deployed to solo mining operations first. Information about this will initially be confidential, perhaps for several months. Public pools will continue to add legacy gen-1 hardware until it is all deployed/sold. When gen-2 ASICs are being manufactured in volume the old gen-1 kit will be sold off cheaply. Then gen-2 kit will start to appear in pools, then it will be offered to the public. Rinse, lather, repeat.