I was thinking.
Would it be an idea to set up a blog for ASICMINER.
Just something simple that could be used for publishing friedcat's announcements.
Maybe also announcements from the owners of the various pass-through stocks (TAT, ASICMINER-PT, G.ASICMINER-PT).
The blog wouldn't need to be anything complicated, just a simple wordpress/blogger page.
I'd be happy to set one up if people want and friedcat is OK with this.
Not that this thread isn't awesome, but 290 pages is a lot to wade through.
Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1107. (Read 3917058 times)
I'd be really curious to here some methods that people are using to derive their own "fair market value" for AM shares. My method is simply to believe that AM will maintain somewhere between 10% and 30% of total network hashrate for at least the next 18 months AND will also generate some % of income from mining equipment sales, (that of course is much harder to estimate). Playing with possible values here helps me to determine my personal valuation range, even if extremely imprecise. Then there is also the intangible, which in this case is the fact that Friedcat has delivered and the current high share price indicates a belief that he will continue to do so.
Yes, I think that your approach is rational. 18 months seems like a realistic timescale on which you might say "even if they face stiff competition, AM still stand to be an important player in mining". Dividends for this era are estimable, plus importantly the estimate can be refined as new data comes in.After that, things that are harder to measure become more important such as the performance of key personnel in response to the competitors who will inevitably rise. Obviously the ability of Bitfountain to deliver the 2nd generation ASIC will be critical. I do take some comfort from the fact that the Bitfountain founders all appear to be extremely capable, and from my research appear to take a long-term view of things.
The numbers from both of these points are necessarily rubbery at the moment, but it's interesting to play with the numbers and see how things could turn out.
You may want to update that now, prices at BTCT just shot up about 10% to 1.69 with highest bids at or above 1.6.
.b
EDIT: Very nice job, btw. I wish burnside would add something more flexible on his site, albeit hopefully not as horrible as the Bitfunder thing.
The live interactive version is here, it updates with new stock prices every 10 minutes or so.. This is just a dev box, so it's a temporary URL:
http://fnords.dontexist.com/chart/ASICMINER-PT
This chart is totally great, but you forgot to state the timezone.
Well, that's where the equipment sales come in. AM can focus more on selling mining hardware when their hashrate is getting to be too large a percentage of the total network, so they're not even reliant on other vendors rolling out hardware in volume.
^This.
The herd is rarely right, so everyone should be asking themselves, is there something the herd has missed?
From what I can tell, a lot of people are currently investing in AM because they are frustrated with BFL and want any option other than buying more GPUs right now. I doubt many (most?) of them have a good idea of how to actually value their shares.
I'd be really curious to here some methods that people are using to derive their own "fair market value" for AM shares. My method is simply to believe that AM will maintain somewhere between 10% and 30% of total network hashrate for at least the next 18 months AND will also generate some % of income from mining equipment sales, (that of course is much harder to estimate). Playing with possible values here helps me to determine my personal valuation range, even if extremely imprecise. Then there is also the intangible, which in this case is the fact that Friedcat has delivered and the current high share price indicates a belief that he will continue to do so.
+1 to the above post.
Research. I am still reading through friedcat's posts on here. An education in itself.
The herd is rarely right, so everyone should be asking themselves, is there something the herd has missed?
Research. I am still reading through friedcat's posts on here. An education in itself.
The herd is rarely right, so everyone should be asking themselves, is there something the herd has missed?
I absolutely love this company. I am lucky to have bought in at IPO prices, but it actually still makes sense to buy at the PT prices now; I am not selling though, no way...
I love the company too, but I would urge anyone considering investing to run the numbers to see whether it makes sense to them.
Not to piss on anyone's parade, but keep in mind a few things to keep a cool head.
- In a stampede, it is easy to get carried away and think that the herd must be right.
- Do your own research, if this is truly a great thing, it will be around for a long time, also after you spend some time researching. If it is a flop, your investment can be gone in an instant
- The Bitcoin asset markets are very different and far less secure than regular asset markets
- To be safe, consider your money burned up when you invest. You may not see them again, ever. If you do, they may be twice or half as many.
- If you need help understanding ASICMiner, please don't be afraid to ask. The worst that can happen is that you don't get an answer.
.b
I absolutely love this company. I am lucky to have bought in at IPO prices, but it actually still makes sense to buy at the PT prices now; I am not selling though, no way...
What is your speculation on equivalent asic miner companys just starting up in the past few months?
I absolutely love this company. I am lucky to have bought in at IPO prices, but it actually still makes sense to buy at the PT prices now; I am not selling though, no way...
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anyone know a good place to buy these shares from a PT that i have option to withdraw and have them directly to me?
any PT has that option you guys might know of? im looking to buy some more shares but i want them direct,
thanks
any PT has that option you guys might know of? im looking to buy some more shares but i want them direct,
thanks
https://btct.co/ offers such service if I recall correctly
Here are the term's on Burnside's PT on btct.co . From everything I can tell, Burnside is a good guy and is trustworthy.
-------------
Transfer
Transfers in and out of the passthru are supported. Such transfers can take some time, due to the manual nature.
One transfer OUT OF ASICMINER-PT will be processed free once per month per account. Subsequent transfers within the same month OUT OF ASICMINER-PT are subject to a fee of 0.25 BTC for transfers of 49 shares or less.
Transfers OUT OF ASICMINER-PT are always free for any transfer of 50 shares or more.
Transfers IN TO ASICMINER-PT from elsewhere are free for any size transfer.
The live interactive version is here, it updates with new stock prices every 10 minutes or so.. This is just a dev box, so it's a temporary URL:
http://fnords.dontexist.com/chart/ASICMINER-PT
http://fnords.dontexist.com/chart/ASICMINER-PT
From a brief glance at the source, you're not getting data directly from BTCT, are you? Any particular reason why? The trade data is public.
If there's a compatibility thing between Highcharts.com expecations and BTCT deliverables, care to reveal the code for /json/ASICMINER-PT?
.b
The data is from BTC-TC's API, but it's just prefetched and stored in my own database. This reduces load on their server by not calling the API for every page load which I and every viewer do. Storing the data locally allows me to transform it into series data that the highcharts javascript library finds more palatable, and it's a little smaller as a result, so this translates into it loading faster in the browser as well.. More than that, though, I want to run other operations against the data and having a local model of it makes this easier (especially since most of this is typical server side work rather than something we'd want do clientside in javascript). For example, one day I might get curious and want to calculate the relative change in price over time and compare that to something else like volume or share price or relative change in volume, or price of MTgoxusd, or any of a dozen factors. I'm just exploring the data to see if I can find interesting patterns, or possible prediction factors for future activity. Call it amateur data science to sate my own curiosity.
The code to generate the json is pretty short:
Code:
def json_data_view(request, ticker):
asset = Asset.objects.get(ticker=ticker)
trades = Trade.objects.filter(asset=asset).order_by('time')
dataset = []
for trade in trades:
dataset.append([datetime_to_milliseconds(trade.time), trade.price, trade.volume])
return HttpResponse(json.dumps(dataset), mimetype='application/json')
This just fetches Trade objects, which are an ORM for the trade data in the BTC-TC API, and returns it to the browser as a json dump.
anyone know a good place to buy these shares from a PT that i have option to withdraw and have them directly to me?
any PT has that option you guys might know of? im looking to buy some more shares but i want them direct,
thanks
any PT has that option you guys might know of? im looking to buy some more shares but i want them direct,
thanks
https://btct.co/ offers such service if I recall correctly
anyone know a good place to buy these shares from a PT that i have option to withdraw and have them directly to me?
any PT has that option you guys might know of? im looking to buy some more shares but i want them direct,
thanks
any PT has that option you guys might know of? im looking to buy some more shares but i want them direct,
thanks
A slightly larger chart than you see on the BTC-TC homepage, displaying the stock performance over the past month. I hope you like it.
You may want to update that now, prices at BTCT just shot up about 10% to 1.69 with highest bids at or above 1.6.
.b
EDIT: Very nice job, btw. I wish burnside would add something more flexible on his site, albeit hopefully not as horrible as the Bitfunder thing.
It seems cheap shares are still available on Bitfunder (G.ASICMINER-PT and TAT-ASICMINER), Havelock (TAT-ASICM), and even BTCT.CO (TAT-Asicminer). (Too bad I'm all in.)
-helixone
The live interactive version is here, it updates with new stock prices every 10 minutes or so.. This is just a dev box, so it's a temporary URL:
http://fnords.dontexist.com/chart/ASICMINER-PT
http://fnords.dontexist.com/chart/ASICMINER-PT
From a brief glance at the source, you're not getting data directly from BTCT, are you? Any particular reason why? The trade data is public.
If there's a compatibility thing between Highcharts.com expecations and BTCT deliverables, care to reveal the code for /json/ASICMINER-PT?
.b
You may want to update that now, prices at BTCT just shot up about 10% to 1.69 with highest bids at or above 1.6.
.b
EDIT: Very nice job, btw. I wish burnside would add something more flexible on his site, albeit hopefully not as horrible as the Bitfunder thing.
The live interactive version is here, it updates with new stock prices every 10 minutes or so.. This is just a dev box, so it's a temporary URL:
http://fnords.dontexist.com/chart/ASICMINER-PT
A slightly larger chart than you see on the BTC-TC homepage, displaying the stock performance over the past month. I hope you like it.
You may want to update that now, prices at BTCT just shot up about 10% to 1.69 with highest bids at or above 1.6.
.b
EDIT: Very nice job, btw. I wish burnside would add something more flexible on his site, albeit hopefully not as horrible as the Bitfunder thing.
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