Doesnt ASICMINER have enough hashpower to solo mine for awhile ?
sure does but i can see why they don't want to take the variance risk in the short term.. we have maybe 2-3 weeks here unless BFL blows up
When you control 1/6-1/3 of the network there is no such thing as variance (well technically there is but you get what I mean).
there sure is when we are talking about a couple of weeks, no such thing in the long term i agree, but we need guaranteed revenue here... though 2 weeks of great luck on solo would be awesome, bad luck would be very unfortunate.
That's utter nonsense.
Say "a couple of weeks" means 2 and ASICMINER only achieves 1/6th of the network (the two pessimistic assumptions in your range). Then:
In 2 weeks approximately: 14*24*6=2016 bocks will be mined and for each block we will have a chance of 1/6th, so we are expected to mine 336 blocks on average.
The chance to mine at least 310 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 310) = 93.7 %
The chance to mine at least 300 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 300) = 98.4 %
The chance to mine at least 286 blocks is: 1- binomcdf(2016, 1/6, 286) = 99.9 %
If the chance of success is large enough variance is hardly the bitch we all know her to be
. 
