Once the .5 wall is gone, it's free fall. It's going to be painful!
on HL's priceHavelock's AM price is not to be blindly followed due to poor liquidity/volume on the exchange: looking at the order book you can see there are only 200 shares at .5. Back in the BTC-TC days you'd see the order stacks racking up 1k+ before going into smaller prices. HL lists 12K shares for market cap (15K if you add the 1/100 security), BTC-TC had 26K+ - Meanwhile there are 200K+ direct shares for Asicminer out there... To me this means that the folks trying to cash out on the rising BTC price really only have one exchange to go to and are forcing the price down. Meanwhile the remaining 200K+ shares are fine without belonging to any exchange, with no clear way to exist (risky pos - but we're way low already).
Interestingly it appears that many folks decided to take their shares to direct instead of importing to Havelock when migrating out of the closing exchanges - I might be slightly off in the #s but the 1/100 pt AM100 only shows a market cap of 352K - equivalent to about 3520 Asicminer shares (it was 5000+ Asicminer shares not long ago) which could mean that people are either converting them up to AM1 or out.
on Asicminer's value fluctuationsAdditionally Asicminer only really took off after the Apr BTC crash (250->100s). I feel a lot of folks who were in BTC then felt that investing in a mining business was a good way to do something more than just "park" their BTCs. I'd expect a similar scenario for the current times, and renewed interest in the shares once BTC deflates from a top, or friedcat starts increasing divs from sales.
Everyone wants to be holding Bitcoins because the valuation keeps going up ($600 today? $2,000 tomorrow!) while a few investors are running away from risks by selling their Asicminer shares without new investors showing up (the people who would buy Asicminer likely did then, or are thinking they're better off holding BTCs with the current rise). I feel we have run out of possible investors, which has created this price vacuum. Thankfully it means little to friedcat as Asicminer is fully funded already.I'm holding on to divs and sitting tight for now - remember every cat has 9 lives.