Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 705. (Read 3917635 times)
September 17, 2013, 09:06:22 AM
Since we're just tossing out random numbers, I'm holding out for 1nm chips. Hopefully by next week.
September 17, 2013, 09:03:56 AM
OK, let's say 22 nm.
September 17, 2013, 09:01:47 AM
I just had a dream that Friedcat came to these forums to say: "Today we will disclose a well guarded secret: actually our Gen 2 are not 55nm but 14nm. We finished the deployment and they are all operational right now."
14nm is expected next year. It would have to be a miracle then.
September 17, 2013, 08:54:11 AM
I just had a dream that Friedcat came to these forums to say: "Today we will disclose a well guarded secret: actually our Gen 2 are not 55nm but 14nm. We finished the deployment and they are all operational right now."
September 17, 2013, 08:49:17 AM
I just had a dream that Friedcat came to these forums to say: "Today we will disclose a well guarded secret: actually our Gen 2 are not 55nm but 14nm. We finished the deployment and they are all operational right now."
September 17, 2013, 04:14:48 AM
1.5$/GH looks very realistic to me, and it would mean that the blade production cost is ~0.1BTC. So the current margin is like 97,5%, which is still huge enough to remain profitable for the coming two or three months before gen.2 is here. I mean look, say in November they can sell blades for 1BTC each, the folk would still happily buy them for that price while the margin would be 90%. They can even sell them in December for 0,5BTC and still have a margin of 80%. For the sticks the margin is obviously lower, but then the blades are phasing the sticks out in a way.
That's pretty much why I'm holding on to my shares tight.
That's pretty much why I'm holding on to my shares tight.
i would love to buy blade rack for 5 btc...
September 17, 2013, 02:28:13 AM
1.5$/GH looks very realistic to me, and it would mean that the blade production cost is ~0.1BTC. So the current margin is like 97,5%, which is still huge enough to remain profitable for the coming two or three months before gen.2 is here. I mean look, say in November they can sell blades for 1BTC each, the folk would still happily buy them for that price while the margin would be 90%. They can even sell them in December for 0,5BTC and still have a margin of 80%. For the sticks the margin is obviously lower, but then the blades are phasing the sticks out in a way.
That's pretty much why I'm holding on to my shares tight.
P.S. Above margin values are assuming constant BTC/USD rate. If the rate continue to grow, the margins will decline slower, because the costs are in USD but the price AND the value are in BTC. Not that I believe BTC/USD could rise anywhere close to as rapidly as the network hashpower.
That's pretty much why I'm holding on to my shares tight.
P.S. Above margin values are assuming constant BTC/USD rate. If the rate continue to grow, the margins will decline slower, because the costs are in USD but the price AND the value are in BTC. Not that I believe BTC/USD could rise anywhere close to as rapidly as the network hashpower.
September 17, 2013, 01:01:30 AM
You are forgetting there are also:
KnC, Bitmine.ch, BTCGarden, Alydian and MyMiner.
KnC, Bitmine.ch, BTCGarden, Alydian and MyMiner.
True enough can discount Alydian late, Myminer and btcgarden had their ipo's canceled other two hmm well I know KnC should have mentioned them the avalon clone seems interesting enough https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3159989
But generally this just adds to the general disdain of mining companies not really hashing still
Thanks for pointing it out
( I do acknowledge the hash rate is rising fast though )
if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH
where does this number come from? I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it. Did FC publish that?
Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
The point is that Vycid's $1.50/GH estimate is a minimum price, so using this in his calculations is only in favor of ASICMiner.
To me it's very hard to imagine that the cost per GH is less than $1.50. At this price we're talking $15 for a blade:
https://i.imgur.com/Lqepfe3.jpg
Now I'm no expert on the cost of electronics manufacturing, but I'm fairly sure you can't build a board like that including mining chips, PCB, other components, heatsink and labor costs for less than $15.
Not sure if I read it right on the $1.50/gh estimate or the USB miners
Clarification note:
Erupter USB $75/GH
Blade $52/GH
Old Gens
Although BTC Garden had their IPO cancelled, they are still progressing with their own ASIC design and hardware sales. I'm not sure if Myminer are still progressing, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.
Bitmine.ch have moved on from the Avalon clone service and now they have their own ASIC as well: https://bitmine.ch/?page_id=863
Edit: Added Bitmine.ch details
September 16, 2013, 11:40:11 PM
You are forgetting there are also:
KnC, Bitmine.ch, BTCGarden, Alydian and MyMiner.
KnC, Bitmine.ch, BTCGarden, Alydian and MyMiner.
True enough can discount Alydian late, Myminer and btcgarden had their ipo's canceled other two hmm well I know KnC should have mentioned them the avalon clone seems interesting enough https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3159989
But generally this just adds to the general disdain of mining companies not really hashing still
Thanks for pointing it out
( I do acknowledge the hash rate is rising fast though )
if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH
where does this number come from? I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it. Did FC publish that?
Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
The point is that Vycid's $1.50/GH estimate is a minimum price, so using this in his calculations is only in favor of ASICMiner.
To me it's very hard to imagine that the cost per GH is less than $1.50. At this price we're talking $15 for a blade:
https://i.imgur.com/Lqepfe3.jpg
Now I'm no expert on the cost of electronics manufacturing, but I'm fairly sure you can't build a board like that including mining chips, PCB, other components, heatsink and labor costs for less than $15.
Not sure if I read it right on the $1.50/gh estimate or the USB miners
Clarification note:
Erupter USB $75/GH
Blade $52/GH
Old Gens
September 16, 2013, 02:27:50 PM
Well, if you want to ramp up production with more than one manufacturing line, you might need a second mask set. For FC's volume that should be totally unnecessary, even for Gen 2.
Marginal costs shouldn't change much for the same process unless you make a new deal with the foundry.
Anyway, after actually MAKING the hardware (and doubtless encountering some speedbumps), I do wonder how accurate that estimate is.
As I understand it it's not an estimate. That comment about $10k per TH was posted in the beginning of May. ASICMiner started hashing i February. Or am I misunderstanding you?Marginal costs shouldn't change much for the same process unless you make a new deal with the foundry.
Anyway, after actually MAKING the hardware (and doubtless encountering some speedbumps), I do wonder how accurate that estimate is.
I thought FC's estimate cited here was forward-looking to the scaled-up 200 TH production run (which has since completed) - i.e. he expected to spend less than $2M more to make that hardware.
That was just my interpretation, though. The word "final" makes me think you might be correct.
September 16, 2013, 02:19:33 PM
Well, if you want to ramp up production with more than one manufacturing line, you might need a second mask set. For FC's volume that should be totally unnecessary, even for Gen 2.
Marginal costs shouldn't change much for the same process unless you make a new deal with the foundry.
Anyway, after actually MAKING the hardware (and doubtless encountering some speedbumps), I do wonder how accurate that estimate is.
As I understand it it's not an estimate. That comment about $10k per TH was posted in the beginning of May. ASICMiner started hashing i February. Or am I misunderstanding you? Marginal costs shouldn't change much for the same process unless you make a new deal with the foundry.
Anyway, after actually MAKING the hardware (and doubtless encountering some speedbumps), I do wonder how accurate that estimate is.
September 16, 2013, 02:05:08 PM
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
I wonder if that price is still accurate. He made that statement in May, and since then, he's supposedly purchased like 200TH or more worth of chips (or maybe more)https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
Those are rather initial costs since volume and mask process changed since then.
I think he is referring to the NRE for the Gen 1 mask set and is ignoring the Gen 2 NRE on masks.
Well, if you want to ramp up production with more than one manufacturing line, you might need a second mask set. For FC's volume that should be totally unnecessary, even for Gen 2.
Marginal costs shouldn't change much for the same process unless you make a new deal with the foundry.
Anyway, after actually MAKING the hardware (and doubtless encountering some speedbumps), I do wonder how accurate that estimate is.
September 16, 2013, 12:34:46 PM
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
I wonder if that price is still accurate. He made that statement in May, and since then, he's supposedly purchased like 200TH or more worth of chips (or maybe more)https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
Those are rather initial costs since volume and mask process changed since then.
I think he is referring to the NRE for the Gen 1 mask set and is ignoring the Gen 2 NRE on masks.
September 16, 2013, 12:30:40 PM
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
I wonder if that price is still accurate. He made that statement in May, and since then, he's supposedly purchased like 200TH or more worth of chips (or maybe more)https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
Those are rather initial costs since volume and mask process changed since then.
I think he is referring to the NRE for the Gen 1 mask set and is ignoring the Gen 2 NRE on masks.
September 16, 2013, 10:51:36 AM
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
I wonder if that price is still accurate. He made that statement in May, and since then, he's supposedly purchased like 200TH or more worth of chips (or maybe more)https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
Those are rather initial costs since volume and mask process changed since then.
September 16, 2013, 10:36:32 AM
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
I wonder if that price is still accurate. He made that statement in May, and since then, he's supposedly purchased like 200TH or more worth of chips (or maybe more)https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
Those are rather initial costs since volume and mask process changed since then.
September 16, 2013, 08:44:40 AM
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
I wonder if that price is still accurate. He made that statement in May, and since then, he's supposedly purchased like 200TH or more worth of chips (or maybe more)https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
September 16, 2013, 08:16:08 AM
If this were the case ASICMiner would be selling USB Block Eruptors at a loss for BTC0.1.
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
The point is that Vycid's $1.50/GH estimate is a minimum price, so using this in his calculations is only in favor of ASICMiner.
To me it's very hard to imagine that the cost per GH is less than $1.50. At this price we're talking $15 for a blade:
https://i.imgur.com/Lqepfe3.jpg
Now I'm no expert on the cost of electronics manufacturing, but I'm fairly sure you can't build a board like that including mining chips, PCB, other components, heatsink and labor costs for less than $15.
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
The point is that Vycid's $1.50/GH estimate is a minimum price, so using this in his calculations is only in favor of ASICMiner.
To me it's very hard to imagine that the cost per GH is less than $1.50. At this price we're talking $15 for a blade:
https://i.imgur.com/Lqepfe3.jpg
Now I'm no expert on the cost of electronics manufacturing, but I'm fairly sure you can't build a board like that including mining chips, PCB, other components, heatsink and labor costs for less than $15.
China FTW!
September 16, 2013, 07:31:10 AM
if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH
where does this number come from? I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it. Did FC publish that?
Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.
friedcat has stated that "final margin cost for 1TH/s is less than 10k$":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118
The point is that Vycid's $1.50/GH estimate is a minimum price, so using this in his calculations is only in favor of ASICMiner.
To me it's very hard to imagine that the cost per GH is less than $1.50. At this price we're talking $15 for a blade:
https://i.imgur.com/Lqepfe3.jpg
Now I'm no expert on the cost of electronics manufacturing, but I'm fairly sure you can't build a board like that including mining chips, PCB, other components, heatsink and labor costs for less than $15.
September 16, 2013, 07:19:32 AM
Franchising is already bigger than in-house mining! 
(exaggerating, of course ;-) )
http://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
713,2 BTC in last few hours. Let's say it's for whole difficulty change, so about 1,5% of network (753 / (25*2016))
(exaggerating, of course ;-) )http://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i
713,2 BTC in last few hours. Let's say it's for whole difficulty change, so about 1,5% of network (753 / (25*2016))
Question is how to track the speed od the franchises so we know where are we at with the whole AM hashrate...
Why do you need to keep track of it? So you can panic sell/buy with hash rate swings
?Some of us like information. lol
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