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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 707. (Read 3917531 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

It could be, but guess what? All this would make per-GH costs higher, not lower.

I've established a best-case scenario for AM and it STILL appears significantly overvalued. Thus my short position.
Cool for you, but your maths is wrong everywhere, even at $15/GH profit margin is better than 75%

You fundamentally misunderstand. That 75% is the average projected over the next year.

If Cointerra is selling at $3/GH, do you see the issue with AM producing at $15?
No, I just wanted to see how you'd react to something completely made up.

So, I show you the income statement and explain the methodology, and you continue to imply the $1.50/GH figure is "completely made up"?

Please explain your investment thesis, I'm dying to know.


Your choice of cointerra is not a good sample choice it may be profitable in January but that is a long wait in bitcoin and delays are very common.
http://decentralizedhashing.com/bitcoin-mining-equipment-table/


The fact that the stiffest competition doesn't deliver until January is the rationale behind a profit margin as high as 75%.

You must understand - all of my estimates are very conservative to offset the factors I may be missing. Yet, with those conservative estimates, the conclusion is still quite clear.

That is why I have such a high degree of certainty while everyone else appears to be purely speculating. It is extremely rare for a situation like this to appear in a market. I suspect it is a result of the bizarre wealth distribution. Many (most?) of AM's shareholders do not really understand finance.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.




If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.


No one with exception to a private rig  http://organofcorti.blogspot.ca/2013/08/151-semi-private-mining-pool.html
has anything on the market and I'm skeptical with the estimated releases from other companies at this point.
https://ghash.io/

Your choice of cointerra is not a good sample choice it may be profitable in January but that is a long wait in bitcoin and delays are very common.
http://decentralizedhashing.com/bitcoin-mining-equipment-table/

That said I will let you choose your poison if we are going by price per G/H as you will note only AM delivers even with the current timelines of other companies any that can actually make the schedule will become interesting.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100

It could be, but guess what? All this would make per-GH costs higher, not lower.

I've established a best-case scenario for AM and it STILL appears significantly overvalued. Thus my short position.
Cool for you, but your maths is wrong everywhere, even at $15/GH profit margin is better than 75%

You fundamentally misunderstand. That 75% is the average projected over the next year.

If Cointerra is selling at $3/GH, do you see the issue with AM producing at $15?
No, I just wanted to see how you'd react to something completely made up.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

It could be, but guess what? All this would make per-GH costs higher, not lower.

I've established a best-case scenario for AM and it STILL appears significantly overvalued. Thus my short position.
Cool for you, but your maths is wrong everywhere, even at $15/GH profit margin is better than 75%

You fundamentally misunderstand. That 75% is the average projected over the next year.

If Cointerra is selling at $3/GH, do you see the issue with AM producing at $15?

Even if AM's margins stay near 100 for the near future, if they drop below 50 later in the year the average could easily dip below 75%.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100

It could be, but guess what? All this would make per-GH costs higher, not lower.

I've established a best-case scenario for AM and it STILL appears significantly overvalued. Thus my short position.
Cool for you, but your maths is wrong everywhere, even at $15/GH profit margin is better than 75%
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2788821

Using the sale price of the hardware (which was known), it is possible to determine how many blades were manufactured for sale based on the sale proceeds. Hardware deployed is known: 50 TH (FC did disclose this number, look through his post history). Summing these two and dividing by manufacturing cost gets you a cost per hash figure.

I have no interest in finding the scratch paper where I did this nor in typing it up. Do it yourself.

As mentioned, USBs are a confounding variable and require some guesswork. If their manufacturing cost was significant, then $1.50 is too low an estimate, which I am obviously comfortable with.
So do we take mining income as displayed on Friedcat's July 23 Update as being profit after expenses too?
You have no way of relating expenses listed on that update to the expenses directly related to the hardware sold over that period.
You also dont know what price some of the hardware was sold at, for example, cost to resellers and direct bulk buys.
This 1.50/GH number that your calculations rely on could be out by some order of magnitude.

Obviously mining income is ignored, we already know the size of the farm. We are only interested in the total hashrate produced in order to determine a cost per gigahash.

It could be off, but guess what? All this would make per-GH costs higher, not lower.

I've established a best-case scenario for AM and it STILL appears significantly overvalued. Thus my short position.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2788821

Using the sale price of the hardware (which was known), it is possible to determine how many blades were manufactured for sale based on the sale proceeds. Hardware deployed is known: 50 TH (FC did disclose this number, look through his post history). Summing these two and dividing by manufacturing cost gets you a cost per hash figure.

I have no interest in finding the scratch paper where I did this nor in typing it up. Do it yourself.

As mentioned, USBs are a confounding variable and require some guesswork. If their manufacturing cost was significant, then $1.50 is too low an estimate, which I am obviously comfortable with.
So do we take mining income as displayed on Friedcat's July 23 Update as being profit after expenses too?
You have no way of relating expenses listed on that update to the expenses directly related to the hardware sold over that period.
You also dont know what price some of the hardware was sold at, for example, cost to resellers and direct bulk buys.
This 1.50/GH number that your calculations rely on could be out by some order of magnitude.
hero member
Activity: 525
Merit: 500
Right. Intelligent conversation like the pages and pages of "TO THE MOON!" and "when are we going to hit 10 BTC??", followed by "WHY DID THE SHARE PRICE DROP???"

The appearance of a contrarian opinion was a warning sign to those who weren't keeping their heads in the sand.
More lies easily disproved with a simple search.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?


Sale profits.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2788821

Using the sale price of the hardware (which was known), it is possible to determine how many blades were manufactured for sale based on the sale proceeds. Hardware deployed is known: 50 TH (FC did disclose this number, look through his post history). Summing these two and dividing by manufacturing cost gets you a cost per hash figure.

I have no interest in finding the scratch paper where I did this nor in typing it up. Do it yourself.

As mentioned, USBs are a confounding variable and require some guesswork. If their manufacturing cost was significant, then $1.50 is too low an estimate, which I am obviously comfortable with.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?


Sale profits.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!
Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?



I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.
No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

Right. Intelligent conversation like the pages and pages of "TO THE MOON!" and "when are we going to hit 10 BTC??", followed by "WHY DID THE SHARE PRICE DROP???"

The appearance of a contrarian opinion was a warning sign to those who weren't keeping their heads in the sand.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

+1

He's trying WAY too hard to be taken seriously. Ignored.

+1 for Vycid starting his own thread....

By the way networks probably passed 1petahash. Celebration time!
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.

+1

He's trying WAY too hard to be taken seriously. Ignored.
hero member
Activity: 525
Merit: 500
$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!
Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?



I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.
No, not mad. There used to be lot's of intelligent conversation here, but now it's just littered with your FUD. You might as well have your own thread.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
Is anyone else tempted to buy up the exchanges to ruin Vycid's day?

Be my guest. Hope you have deep pockets and no regard for the money in them.

I frequently am told that "2 BTC is a bargain and I'm buying up as much as I can!", so frankly I don't see why you shouldn't hop on board!
FNG
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Is anyone else tempted to buy up the exchanges to ruin Vycid's day?
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever



sounds like my kind of party

how did he get filled on those puts?
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!
Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?



I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.
hero member
Activity: 525
Merit: 500
nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!
Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.
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