Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 737. (Read 3917468 times)

With the price of shares of AM so closely tied to the btc/fiat rate, it is becoming difficult to calculate the correct ROI, and to determine if it is in fact positive.

At $90 per bitcoin, AM shares averaged around 4.5 each. 4.5 * 90 = $405.

At $120 per bitcoin, AM shares averaged around 3.3 each. 3.3 * 120 = $396.

At $130 per bitcoin, AM shares average around 2.9 each. 2.9 * 130 = $377.

Today:

At $140 per bitcoin, AM shares average around 2.5 each. 2.5 * 140 = $350.


This apparent loss of fiat purchasing power as the price of btc increases may be replaced by the dividends. They are only a few dollars at best per week, but  there are multiple dividends per price period so the accumulation of dividends might offset most of it. Of course, there are other factors such as other IPO, breaking news, FUD, etc. But a clear pattern is establishing itself. Could it be possible that, just like buying an asic (in most cases anymore), you are better off just sitting on your BTC than you are in investing? Help me out here and show me what I am missing.

Yeah, there will always be some ways to trick the system... That is why franchising works only within a "continued" relationship, with trust and/or collaterals involved.

    So then my dream for ASICMINER can't come true   Thank sucks. There's no way to develop a chip that would share it's hash power with the operator and ASICMINER? If someone could figure out away to do this it would not only be good for the producer of them but it would be great for the network as a whole.
     Anyway thanks for the critique guys guess i gotta put more thought into it, i just don't get how else you franchise mining? How do you think he plans on keeping his franchisees honest and paying him for running the hardware?  

    So then my dream for ASICMINER can't come true   Thank sucks. There's no way to develop a chip that would share it's hash power with the operator and ASICMINER? If someone could figure out away to do this it would not only be good for the producer of them but it would be great for the network as a whole.
     Anyway thanks for the critique guys guess i gotta put more thought into it, i just don't get how else you franchise mining? How do you think he plans on keeping his franchisees honest and paying him for running the hardware?  

Or even simpler: fake the ASICMINER pool. The software think it's mining for AM but it's actually mining for you.

They're developing new hardware. No reason to add more old hardware. My guess is that they will deploy it while selling the older one (which actually might be profitable for buyers, as it could be sold at a low price without causing a loss to AM - they paid for themselves already).

Or even simpler: fake the ASICMINER pool. The software think it's mining for AM but it's actually mining for you.

     Well i dont know much about designing chips or programming software but couldn't they just make chips that only worked with a ASICMINER mining program that they wrote. That way the miner program could dedicate 95% of the hash work to one pool that paid out to ASICMINER and the other 5% would go to the person running it.

I understood franchising the same way you did, including the fact that it allows to expand the AM network hash rate without threatening the network.
I think for the franchisee, it allows to mine without supporting the risk of not breaking-even. AM will ensure that somehow.

Where I don't follow you that much, is about the free USBs. Technically, I don't see a way to ensure that mining hardware are going to share revenue with AM.
I think AM only franchise with people that they trust, and that have collateral (shares, btc?) to ensure they are not going to run away with the hardware and keep all revenues for themselves. And I don't believe this type or relationship can scale to thousands of people around the globe easily. If there would be a technical way to make something as spread as you describe feasible, it would be truly awesome.

Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts.  But really you aren’t thinking critically enough.

1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general.  At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people.  But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent.  But really that is not the case at all.  Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts.  On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways.  Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity...  Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity.  People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?

Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening  

Wow, 4 people that think they know statistics because they know what a distribution is and can google simple statistics concepts.  But really you aren’t thinking critically enough.

1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

You guys are really my major problem with the bitcoin community in general.  At first it seems like a community full of really intelligent people.  But the more time you spend, you realize its actually full of condescending people that are pseudo-intellectuals.

You guys think that because you have tons of posts that you are intelligent.  But really that is not the case at all.  Just because you took intro to stats you think that you know probabilities well, but you guys are misapplying the concepts.  On top of that you act like egotistical dbags to people that are trying to help you see the error in your ways.  Really concerns me about this community, and bitcoins' longevity...  Especially you members with a ton of posts and activity.  People assume that you guys are intelligent and know things--couldn't you at least take a little bit of responsibility?

Sorry for ranting, but it really is saddening  

I do not really get the whole point of franchising here. Presently ASICminer has only a small fraction of the network power. And the reason for this that it was much more profitable for them to sell the mining equipment than to run it. It was (and is) a simple calculation: for a couple of months it is easy to estimate how the hash rate will grow (preorders) and if you adjust the price accordingly...so that is what they did and did it right. I think that most people focus too much only on mining.

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...