ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 775.

runeks

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1008

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 01:29:20 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 21, 2013, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before... Roll Eyes

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

Will you reveal how many put options you own?

Vycid

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: velacreations on August 21, 2013, 01:58:49 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 01:46:57 PM

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in. The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

Denial is the first stage.

Anger soon.

bobboooiie

hero member

Activity: 656

Merit: 500

Quote from: velacreations on August 21, 2013, 01:58:49 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 01:46:57 PM

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in. The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

Yeah you said that 4-5 times already, WE GOT IT by now. But I know you are long on AM so you are trying to pump it up. The true value will be shown by market and its not undervalued by any means at 3, unless you are blind and dont see what is happening in mining BTC world you should see it too.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 01:46:57 PM

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

yeah, but then you get a fast recovery when those bull coins get in. The delay has to do with confirmation times, too.

The market has shown us twice this morning that AM at 3 is undervalued.

DeathAndTaxes

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1079

Gerald Davis

Quote from: gramma on August 21, 2013, 12:47:27 PM

Sure I wish I had sold near the high - who doesn't? But also wishing I hadn't just slept through the mid-2s dip.

The power of limit orders.

Vycid

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: velacreations on August 21, 2013, 01:40:36 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

so, let me get this straight, the big drop was because of the USD/BTC rate and nothing to do with the low dividend this week or the whale that has been keeping the price at 3.5 for several days?

interesting theory.

Uh, no. I guess this needs explaining.

For people who are on the fence about AM, a drop prompts them to sell. This is easy, shares -> BTC.

But people who are bullish on AM likely don't have enough BTC sitting around to buy in lots at the low price. They have to buy BTC from USD first. USD is illiquid in the context of AM, not to mention it takes much longer to move BTC into an exchange than click 'sell'.

The bears react instantly and the bulls are delayed. So you get a cliff in the share price because resistance is anemic.

Don't trust the spikes. The trend is real, not the sudden movement. For a stock, value is equal to sentiment (look at Tesla), and eventually sentiment comes to match fundamentals. The technicals are noise. We will be below 2 in due time.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

so, let me get this straight, the big drop was because of the USD/BTC rate and nothing to do with the low dividend this week or the whale that has been keeping the price at 3.5 for several days?

interesting theory.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 01:29:20 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 21, 2013, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before... Roll Eyes

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

I guess you missed the massive rally a few hours ago, but hold on, cause another one is forming. There's about 40 shares between here at 3.4

Other people like cheap AM shares, too.

Vycid

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: velacreations on August 21, 2013, 01:14:10 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before... Roll Eyes

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Indeed I will, I need them to exercise my put options.

At this point I think I'm the only one buying AM.

Rebelution

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: Panterino on August 21, 2013, 01:11:03 PM

Quote from: SebastianJu on August 21, 2013, 01:09:43 PM

Quote from: runeks on August 21, 2013, 08:22:34 AM

Imagine a company having to expand its operation by 80% each month! That's been the reality for ASICMiner the past month: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/diff.txt

The difficulty has risen by an average of 25% per adjustment for the past month. That's 80% per month!

Its 94%. You cant simply summarize the percents. Though one diff adjustment now jumped out of the 30 day window it looks less. But im very sure it will be above 100% next diff update. It went 46% then 71% and now 94%. So the difficulty rise is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is even rising exponential.

We need the next-gen chips

It would be nice, but producing and mining with the current gen chips will still be profitable for a long time. Hardware sales are just a great bonus. I am loving this panic sell, I have greatly increased my position. I just hope it remains at this price for the next few weeks so I can continue to load up. Nom nom nom!

AMuppInTime

donator

Activity: 290

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@canth
I'm loving the shakeup. I got back onboard at 3.7 - and after seeing everyone freak out about low divs or other IPOs, I am glad to see the weak hands leave the boat.
In the end, some play it speculatively, others invest.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

right, we've never seen a recovery from levels like this before... Roll Eyes

sell Vycid your cheap shares, he'll be glad to take them off your hands.

Panterino

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: SebastianJu on August 21, 2013, 01:09:43 PM

Quote from: runeks on August 21, 2013, 08:22:34 AM

Imagine a company having to expand its operation by 80% each month! That's been the reality for ASICMiner the past month: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/diff.txt

The difficulty has risen by an average of 25% per adjustment for the past month. That's 80% per month!

Its 94%. You cant simply summarize the percents. Though one diff adjustment now jumped out of the 30 day window it looks less. But im very sure it will be above 100% next diff update. It went 46% then 71% and now 94%. So the difficulty rise is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is even rising exponential.

We need the next-gen chips

SebastianJu

legendary

Activity: 2674

Merit: 1083

Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile

Quote from: runeks on August 21, 2013, 08:22:34 AM

Imagine a company having to expand its operation by 80% each month! That's been the reality for ASICMiner the past month: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/diff.txt

The difficulty has risen by an average of 25% per adjustment for the past month. That's 80% per month!

Its 94%. You cant simply summarize the percents. Though one diff adjustment now jumped out of the 30 day window it looks less. But im very sure it will be above 100% next diff update. It went 46% then 71% and now 94%. So the difficulty rise is not only rising exponentially, the prozentual rise is even rising exponential.

gramma

full member

Activity: 194

Merit: 100

Quote from: ajolly on August 21, 2013, 01:07:30 PM

Vycid has been transparent about him profiting by a lower AsicMiner share price...

Agreed. He didn't mention it in that post, but has mentioned it in many posts.

ajolly

newbie

Activity: 58

Merit: 0

Vycid has been transparent about him profiting by a lower AsicMiner share price...

Progressive

full member

Activity: 181

Merit: 100

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

Quote from: therustytrombone on August 21, 2013, 11:48:46 AM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:47:04 AM

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Cut your damn losses before the whales start cashing out.

Seriously.

Did I just log on to Investorshub? LOL

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

I think that some of your posts are great Vycid.
But maybe it would be fair to mention that you are holding put options for ASICMINER, therefore you will lose if price will go up and you will gain if the price will fall (as you are preaching).
Am I wrong?

gramma

full member

Activity: 194

Merit: 100

USD is illiquid relative to where it was a year ago, or even six months ago, true. But not completely illiquid, and hard as it may be to believe, there are other major world currencies out there, and Germany's recent action comes to mind as a positive. Between today's div and changing market, I am not surprised at a drop. The rising price of BTC may have people cashing out as well, even into relatively illiquid USD. Fun times ahead, not for the faint of heart. I picked some up in the mid-high 3s, but I also have some from back @ 0.69.

Sure I wish I had sold near the high - who doesn't? But also wishing I hadn't just slept through the mid-2s dip.

Panterino

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

Quote from: therustytrombone on August 21, 2013, 11:48:46 AM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:47:04 AM

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Cut your damn losses before the whales start cashing out.

Seriously.

Did I just log on to Investorshub? LOL

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

You don't think USD-BTC will become more accessible in the future?

Mnw

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 1

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:49:41 AM

Quote from: therustytrombone on August 21, 2013, 11:48:46 AM

Quote from: Vycid on August 21, 2013, 11:47:04 AM

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Cut your damn losses before the whales start cashing out.

Seriously.

Did I just log on to Investorshub? LOL

I've been prognosticating this for ages, at about this timeframe. Few listened. Here it is.

The huge drop was because USD-BTC is illiquid. The adjustment will be a continuing trend as sentiment shifts, not a vertical line.

HW sales competition is growing, mining difficult is rising.. I see a steady profits decline in the near future

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