Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 970. (Read 3917568 times)

Maybe he sold half the farm too, and will be replacing it with the new ones.

Yes, he could. My argument was pure speculation; he must have some good reason for not going that way. A bulk sale to a private buyer sounds plausible but what would I know?

If they wanted to reduce price regularly, they could use a formula that factored current difficulty. This would make it "fair" to previous buyers quite dynamically.

We were speculating some time ago on the best way to decrease hardware price without having customers with past orders pissed off, or without having people holding on to wait for a price decrease...
Stopping blade sells for some time would feet perfectly into this. Then open again with lower price... much better than sharp change all of a sudden!
So, I'm not sure from the hypothesis "blade sells are stopped now" we can derivate the conclusion "they are out of stock" so easily.

I guess we don't know for sure, but Friedcat at least is not selling the hardware, he updated the sales thread for that saying they are out of stock.

I'm optimistic about this...

"The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming..." - Harvey Dent, The Dark Knight

Steady decline over the last 5 days..

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=120,96,72,48,24

I don't think AM is out of blades.

This is just supposition on my part, drawing inferences on how friedcat has behaved so far.

I think friedcat knew that the blades weren't a good deal for buyers anymore at 50BTC so he pulled them and will either sell them in bulk in private at a discount or deploy them to keep the network share up (or a bit of both).

The alternative would have been to drop the price the public pays every time the difficulty went up. The problem with that is that it encourages people to hold off on purchases to wait for a bargain. I think friedcat is a smart enough businessman (smarter than basically everyone, heh) to know that mining is a classic repeat customer business. If you screw over your customers the way some other vendors are doing at the moment, they'll think twice about dealing with you again. However, if you under promise and over deliver, they'll beat a path to your door, again and again.

So he puts blades on sale for a while, then takes them off when they're no longer a good deal. People will learn that if they want AM products, it's best to get in early when the rewards are best, as they'll offer the best return early and won't be on sale forever.

In a few weeks, a refreshed product will come out at a lower price point with better features. Demand will have built up again, and early purchasers will have had a few weeks of less competition from other sales.

EDIT: Dimly recall from some marketing seminars that products are all about a "promise" - shinier hair, whiter teeth, attractive to the opposite sex, etc. Most other vendors doing pre-orders are selling a "gamble". AM is selling (relative) certainty. "Order this product today, have it in 5 days and start using it." That's a clear point of difference that no-one else has yet offered.

EDIT #2: That's also why I've noticed a lot of AM haters coming out of the woodwork. They look at the AM offering and scoff "how can you pay that much per Ghash? I can get xxx Ghash for $yyy from Company ZZZ. AM customers are all stupid." Those people are not in AM's target market (they really want a gamble, or they are possibly just self-deluded about when they will get their hardware) so they mock anyone who doesn't think the same way they do.

any clue why am is 9% as of now ?

No need, but this is entertaining to squeeze any possible information out of what are publicly available facts. 

This, no need to get panties in a bunch because friedcat's not updating on a daily basis. You bought in because you trusted friedcat's decision making, unlike those "other ASIC companies"....

We already know that some blades were sold to distributors, but we don't know the terms of those deals. Last I checked blades can still be purchased via 3rd party.

I recommend just sitting tight a couple days to see how things unfold. Maybe have some relaxing tea

Sorry I miss something, how do we know that we are out of blades?

Why not ask the only person who knows?

Ok so we should have at minimum 100th in blades not sold, with 100 more that should have been part way through production, and honestly done with production by now... right?

I did some math and added up the difference between expected divs and actual divs for the last 5 weeks (the weeks since hardware sales, and also the weeks were SimiGuel's estimates first started being off).  I got a total of .085 per share from mining hardware sales over that time.  Take that times 400,000 and you get 34,024 bitcoins of profit.  Divide that by 50 and you get 680 blades.  Take that and multiply by 12gh and you get 8165gh sold.

NOTE this assumes we NEVER sold ANY USB miners, and I think most of us know the USB miners were the MAIN source of HW sales profit.  Basically the th sold in blades is a massive over-estimate.  So... knowing this... where are the rest of the blades?  Are they held for deployment?  Or like I keep hope, did some HUGE player just buy out all of ASICMINERS backstock?

Please check my math, tear my argument to pieces, come up with other ideas.. but try and help me answer this question.  How the hell are we out of blades with how many we have sold?

First batch was ~12 TH/s, ~7 TH/s came online
Second batch was ~50 TH/s, big part is online, and partly sold.


friedcat only mentioned the first 100TH/s of the 200TH/s third batch came from the fab. _{(unassembled, only the chips)}

So... this thought came to me.

Previously Friedcat stated we had several 100's of TH on the way.  When it came clear that deploying all of that would make ASICMINER control too much of the hash power, they started selling hardware.  Current hash rate estimates show us maybe near 40th?  So we should have had at least 200th to sell.  How many blades do we think we have sold?  From my previous ballparks we were never close to selling 100th of power... can anyone come up with a good estimate?

Yet we ran out of blades to sell?  I think we should still have a bunch of blades... So a) Asicminer maybe has those blades deployed, yet not on... which would explain how we can easily add more hashing power quickly. b) those blades are in storage for later deployment c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.

But really... anyone care to go back and see how many TH of blades should have been produced by now, estimate how many we sold, estimate how many we are using, and then figure out how many are in limbo?

it's true, there must be some problem because no blocks were found in a long time now. Anyway I'm also sure that the problem will be solved momentarily

Yeah, I don't think it's just luck now. Regardless, I'm sure everything will be OK in max of 48 hours.