ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 971.

empoweoqwj

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Quote from: aahzmundus on June 18, 2013, 08:56:30 AM

Ok so we should have at minimum 100th in blades not sold, with 100 more that should have been part way through production, and honestly done with production by now... right?

I did some math and added up the difference between expected divs and actual divs for the last 5 weeks (the weeks since hardware sales, and also the weeks were SimiGuel's estimates first started being off). I got a total of .085 per share from mining hardware sales over that time. Take that times 400,000 and you get 34,024 bitcoins of profit. Divide that by 50 and you get 680 blades. Take that and multiply by 12gh and you get 8165gh sold.

NOTE this assumes we NEVER sold ANY USB miners, and I think most of us know the USB miners were the MAIN source of HW sales profit. Basically the th sold in blades is a massive over-estimate. So... knowing this... where are the rest of the blades? Are they held for deployment? Or like I keep hope, did some HUGE player just buy out all of ASICMINERS backstock?

Please check my math, tear my argument to pieces, come up with other ideas.. but try and help me answer this question. How the hell are we out of blades with how many we have sold?

Why not ask the only person who knows?

aahzmundus

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Invest & Earn: https://cloudthink.io

Ok so we should have at minimum 100th in blades not sold, with 100 more that should have been part way through production, and honestly done with production by now... right?

I did some math and added up the difference between expected divs and actual divs for the last 5 weeks (the weeks since hardware sales, and also the weeks were SimiGuel's estimates first started being off). I got a total of .085 per share from mining hardware sales over that time. Take that times 400,000 and you get 34,024 bitcoins of profit. Divide that by 50 and you get 680 blades. Take that and multiply by 12gh and you get 8165gh sold.

NOTE this assumes we NEVER sold ANY USB miners, and I think most of us know the USB miners were the MAIN source of HW sales profit. Basically the th sold in blades is a massive over-estimate. So... knowing this... where are the rest of the blades? Are they held for deployment? Or like I keep hope, did some HUGE player just buy out all of ASICMINERS backstock?

Please check my math, tear my argument to pieces, come up with other ideas.. but try and help me answer this question. How the hell are we out of blades with how many we have sold?

SmiGueL

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Quote from: aahzmundus on June 18, 2013, 08:08:09 AM

So... this thought came to me.

Previously Friedcat stated we had several 100's of TH on the way. When it came clear that deploying all of that would make ASICMINER control too much of the hash power, they started selling hardware. Current hash rate estimates show us maybe near 40th? So we should have had at least 200th to sell. How many blades do we think we have sold? From my previous ballparks we were never close to selling 100th of power... can anyone come up with a good estimate?

Yet we ran out of blades to sell? I think we should still have a bunch of blades... So a) Asicminer maybe has those blades deployed, yet not on... which would explain how we can easily add more hashing power quickly. b) those blades are in storage for later deployment c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.

But really... anyone care to go back and see how many TH of blades should have been produced by now, estimate how many we sold, estimate how many we are using, and then figure out how many are in limbo?

First batch was ~12 TH/s, ~7 TH/s came online
Second batch was ~50 TH/s, big part is online, and partly sold.

friedcat only mentioned the first 100TH/s of the 200TH/s third batch came from the fab. _{(unassembled, only the chips)}

Quote from: friedcat on June 06, 2013, 10:23:38 AM

The wafer of the first half (100TH/s) of next batch is to be out of fab.

aahzmundus

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Invest & Earn: https://cloudthink.io

So... this thought came to me.

Previously Friedcat stated we had several 100's of TH on the way. When it came clear that deploying all of that would make ASICMINER control too much of the hash power, they started selling hardware. Current hash rate estimates show us maybe near 40th? So we should have had at least 200th to sell. How many blades do we think we have sold? From my previous ballparks we were never close to selling 100th of power... can anyone come up with a good estimate?

Yet we ran out of blades to sell? I think we should still have a bunch of blades... So a) Asicminer maybe has those blades deployed, yet not on... which would explain how we can easily add more hashing power quickly. b) those blades are in storage for later deployment c) some large player put in an EPIC buy order and bought ASICMINER out of blades, and this weeks div will be the most amazing thing ever.

But really... anyone care to go back and see how many TH of blades should have been produced by now, estimate how many we sold, estimate how many we are using, and then figure out how many are in limbo?

VeeMiner

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bitcoin hodler

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on June 18, 2013, 05:49:52 AM

Quote from: Nullrisk on June 18, 2013, 03:29:03 AM

Well, they are well below the estimated 20%!
I'm not sure how to prove it statistically, but it surely looks like variance is not the sole responsible for the deviation...

Yeah, I don't think it's just luck now. Regardless, I'm sure everything will be OK in max of 48 hours.

it's true, there must be some problem because no blocks were found in a long time now. Anyway I'm also sure that the problem will be solved momentarily

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

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👻

Quote from: Nullrisk on June 18, 2013, 03:29:03 AM

Well, they are well below the estimated 20%!
I'm not sure how to prove it statistically, but it surely looks like variance is not the sole responsible for the deviation...

Yeah, I don't think it's just luck now. Regardless, I'm sure everything will be OK in max of 48 hours.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: tkone on June 18, 2013, 05:29:13 AM

btc on the rise 104 each, i think it might be a drop or an incline ahead, i dont think 104 is stable

wrong thread, no one here cares about 4 btc price changes

Just repost this every once in a while for people who don't check the old pages

ASICMINER Speculation thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2507875

Also reminder send investor questions to TAT and others

tkone

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btc on the rise 104 each, i think it might be a drop or an incline ahead, i dont think 104 is stable

SmiGueL

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Quote from: JordanL on June 18, 2013, 04:37:22 AM

Wouldn't that take BTC28,000?

Well, at least it's cheaper than candoo's idea of boosting the divs

Quote from: candoo on June 17, 2013, 10:43:30 AM

Did anyone hear the rumours about a forced buyback for 3.64 btc per share? So he ill pay uy 3.64 btc per share as a dividend and thats all forever.

Would cost them around $60M to do....

NOT gonna happen Tongue

JordanL

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on June 18, 2013, 03:18:16 AM

Some malicious attacker should send out a 0.07 BTC/share dividend to ASICMINER share addresses, and dump their shares as people panic buy on PTs Grin

tries to do the math Cry

Wouldn't that take BTC28,000?

SmiGueL

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on June 18, 2013, 03:18:16 AM

Some malicious attacker should send out a 0.07 BTC/share dividend to ASICMINER share addresses, and dump their shares as people panic buy on PTs Grin

Why not send out 0.007 and wait for panic sells? Wink

Will be about 10x cheaper for the attacker and have the same effect..

TsuyokuNaritai

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on June 18, 2013, 03:18:16 AM

Some malicious attacker should send out a 0.07 BTC/share dividend to ASICMINER share addresses, and dump their shares as people panic buy on PTs Grin

That's the crazy way round! I'm going to set up some buy walls tomorrow & send everyone 1 Satoshi. Tongue

Nullrisk

newbie

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Well, they are well below the estimated 20%!
I'm not sure how to prove it statistically, but it surely looks like variance is not the sole responsible for the deviation...

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

vip

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1043

👻

Some malicious attacker should send out a 0.07 BTC/share dividend to ASICMINER share addresses, and dump their shares as people panic buy on PTs Grin

SmiGueL

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Activity: 322

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100% agree, Blockchain.info still didn't fix their API and can only go back (almost) 2 days..
_{(Thats why the 48 hours pie is the same as the 4 days pie)}

The dotted-line gives a nice visualisation of the last 100 found blocks by Asicminer:)

VeeMiner

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bitcoin hodler

Quote from: JordanL on June 18, 2013, 12:41:10 AM

Quote from: CanadianGuy on June 18, 2013, 12:26:46 AM

wtf, hash rate is purely hardware based, and is not affected by the bitcoin/mining economy at all. Or I've had it all wrong this entire time Shocked

Hash rate is purely hardware based. ASICMINER (probably) knows their exact hash rate at all times, but the charts we have access to are all estimates of ASICMINER's hash rate, based on the blocks they find and the total bitcoin network difficultly. Since the amount of blocks a solo-miner (like ASICMINER) actually solves is based to some degree on luck, the hashrate we see in the charts is likely to have a great deal more variance than the true ASICMINER hash rate.

At least that's my understanding of it.

you are right. The approximation for three days or a week week should be pretty exact, but 24 hour aproximation is very dependent on luck...

JordanL

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Quote from: CanadianGuy on June 18, 2013, 12:26:46 AM

wtf, hash rate is purely hardware based, and is not affected by the bitcoin/mining economy at all. Or I've had it all wrong this entire time Shocked

Hash rate is purely hardware based. ASICMINER (probably) knows their exact hash rate at all times, but the charts we have access to are all estimates of ASICMINER's hash rate, based on the blocks they find and the total bitcoin network difficultly. Since the amount of blocks a solo-miner (like ASICMINER) actually solves is based to some degree on luck, the hashrate we see in the charts is likely to have a great deal more variance than the true ASICMINER hash rate.

At least that's my understanding of it.

notme

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Quote from: CanadianGuy on June 18, 2013, 12:26:46 AM

wtf, hash rate is purely hardware based, and is not affected by the bitcoin/mining economy at all. Or I've had it all wrong this entire time Shocked

"Hash rate estimate"

It is estimate based on blocks found.

CanadianGuy

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wtf, hash rate is purely hardware based, and is not affected by the bitcoin/mining economy at all. Or I've had it all wrong this entire time Shocked

dhenson

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Ah, duh... It hadn't occurred to me that the hash rate was an estimate based on total network hash power and blocks found.

Consider me enlightened, thanks.

Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 971. (Read 3917058 times)