ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 138.

Pale Phoenix

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Quote from: Rival on August 23, 2013, 09:33:13 AM

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

Great point. Of course, the problem is that it's very difficult to predict which horse might stumble, especially among the newcomers. All manner of problems could derail any of them, which is why the most logical bet has to be a company that has proven it can deliver, and there is only one of those open to public investment.

Which brings us to valuation. I don't think anyone can reasonably argue that margins aren't going to fall across the board, so picking a profitable entry / exit point may be just as important as the horse you choose to bet on.

Rival

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Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

velacreations

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Labcoin up, AM down, same pattern we have seen for a few weeks, now.

VeeMiner

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bitcoin hodler

Quote from: stripykitteh on August 23, 2013, 01:22:53 AM

Bitfury's private pool has tossed another 7TH/s on the barbie since yesterday. Up to ~77TH/s:

https://ghash.io/

AM have never had a 3-day or 7-day average over 60TH/s:

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

obviously, the competition is getting stronger and there is nothing wrong with that. My faith in friedcat and his team is not lessened though. I just expect they will double the effort at creating more efficient chips.

stripykitteh

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Bitfury's private pool has tossed another 7TH/s on the barbie since yesterday. Up to ~77TH/s:

https://ghash.io/

AM have never had a 3-day or 7-day average over 60TH/s:

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

lophie

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Unlimited Free Crypto

Quote from: velacreations on August 22, 2013, 12:55:17 AM

Quote from: freedomno1 on August 22, 2013, 12:52:52 AM

I agree with you on that but spec wise they are pretty competitive found an interesting data piece comparing units

I wish I could sort that for "actual devices that exist"

+1, the only thing I am sad about that this happened while I need to sell a few shares for some "temporarily" cash flow....

mechs

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Quote from: binaryFate on August 22, 2013, 05:03:48 PM

Quote from: mechs on August 22, 2013, 04:55:01 PM

Also, more Avalon chips and BFLs will come online before ASICMiner puts their new hashing tech online and our hashrate will likey slowly decline over the next month - this will further scare out the speculators.

They don't need the new tech to increase their hashrate. The current chips could mine for a long time still before electricity bills would make it problematic wrt competitors. I don't think we will see the hashrate decreasing over the next month. Remember the +200TH/s order? That would be close to 50% of the network right now, and some of it is ready already (as the new hw sales demonstrate).

The hashrate # will go up but what is importat is total % of network hashrate which I think will trend slowly down

binaryFate

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Still wild and free

Quote from: mechs on August 22, 2013, 04:55:01 PM

Also, more Avalon chips and BFLs will come online before ASICMiner puts their new hashing tech online and our hashrate will likey slowly decline over the next month - this will further scare out the speculators.

They don't need the new tech to increase their hashrate. The current chips could mine for a long time still before electricity bills would make it problematic wrt competitors. I don't think we will see the hashrate decreasing over the next month. Remember the +200TH/s order? That would be close to 50% of the network right now, and some of it is ready already (as the new hw sales demonstrate).

mechs

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I am not seeing any support or btct until 2.85BTC which we will probably get to and hang out around until next Wednesday.
New prediction: we will see 2.5BTC before we see 3.7BTC
I am actually short-term bearish but mid-term bullish. I think FC will deliver before the competition and this will see mid-4s by year end. But we are in for a couple disappointing dividend payments as short sighted investors fret about the cashflow going towards R&D and the dividend suffering. Also, more Avalon chips and BFLs will come online before ASICMiner puts their new hashing tech online and our hashrate will likey slowly decline over the next month - this will further scare out the speculators.

Vycid

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♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: BitCsByBit on August 22, 2013, 12:52:22 AM

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward? Grin

Irrational sentiment, Exhibit A.

You guys are so used to incompetence in the ASIC industry you conflate competence with infallibility.

Competent competition is coming, unless you think the free market doesn't apply to Bitcoin mining.

Lohoris

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Bitgoblin

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: btcbot on August 22, 2013, 08:41:15 AM

I began to wonder if Friedcat was some type of fanatic about profit-sharing and wasn't creating a diligent safety net and setting aside BTC for inevitable down days and unforseen costs. This is the best possible explanation I could have seen.

Freidcat owns almost 200k shares, so that is not the case at all.

All of them himself?
Source?
Aren't you getting confused with the Bitfountain's shares?

btcbot

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: btcbot on August 22, 2013, 08:41:15 AM

I began to wonder if Friedcat was some type of fanatic about profit-sharing and wasn't creating a diligent safety net and setting aside BTC for inevitable down days and unforseen costs. This is the best possible explanation I could have seen.

Freidcat owns almost 200k shares, so that is not the case at all.

I understand what you're getting at, but it still doesn't prove that the gigantic dividends weren't some form of egalitarian experiment which could lead to disaster.

EDIT: One thing that has led to price volatility, enhanced by a market made of n00bs, is the differences in weekly divs. It might be preferable to create an expectation of steadily increasing, or mildly fluctuating divs than these mountains and valleys of 'success.'

btcbot

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Quote from: velacreations on August 22, 2013, 12:56:50 AM

Quote from: BitCsByBit on August 22, 2013, 12:52:22 AM

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward? Grin

maybe not just extra hash rate, but extra hardware, too. It's good to see reinvestment, and in the past, very little reinvestment meant BIG payoffs later.

When we were getting those dividends close to .04 a month or so ago, I found it kind of frightening. I began to wonder if Friedcat was some type of fanatic about profit-sharing and wasn't creating a diligent safety net and setting aside BTC for inevitable down days and unforseen costs. This is the best possible explanation I could have seen.

velacreations

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Quote from: BitCsByBit on August 22, 2013, 12:52:22 AM

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward? Grin

maybe not just extra hash rate, but extra hardware, too. It's good to see reinvestment, and in the past, very little reinvestment meant BIG payoffs later.

velacreations

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Quote from: freedomno1 on August 22, 2013, 12:52:52 AM

I agree with you on that but spec wise they are pretty competitive found an interesting data piece comparing units

I wish I could sort that for "actual devices that exist"

freedomno1

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Quote from: velacreations on August 22, 2013, 12:49:21 AM

Quote from: mechs on August 22, 2013, 12:42:47 AM

The truth is these are all short-term educated trading guesses based on unknowable future events. Long-term (well long-term being 4-6 months which us long term in bitcoin world) this stock will either be below 2BTC or above 6BTC by January. If they crank out some 22nm tech ahead of the competition, they will shoot up exponentally - 8BTC even possible. If competitors such as cointerra, hashfast, BFL (yeah right!) release their tech earlier or even at the same time, ASICMiner will drop like a rock with support being potentially very low - below 2BTC.

I think the next phase of bitcoin mining will have more to do with cost than first mover or fancy tech, to be honest. The market here is the hobby/individual miner, not huge mining farms (though that can be lucrative, too). For that market, it's cost per hashrate. Power is less of an issue, because of scale. As long as USD/BTC maintains a decent value, I think the market will value cost over efficiency, leading edge, and first availability.

If AM can beat the competition in terms of availability AND cost, then nothing can stop them.

FC just said that they have been withholding profits for production in Sep/Oct of lots of units. To me, that means AM is focused on volume, which should make the cost attractive to the market.

I agree with you on that but spec wise they are pretty competitive found an interesting data piece comparing units
It is missing a few companies though but specs aren't out yet I believe regarding those companies

Quote from: BitCsByBit on August 22, 2013, 12:52:22 AM

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward? Grin

One of us needs to play Devils Advocate now and then

BitCsByBit

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So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward? Grin

velacreations

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Quote from: mechs on August 22, 2013, 12:42:47 AM

The truth is these are all short-term educated trading guesses based on unknowable future events. Long-term (well long-term being 4-6 months which us long term in bitcoin world) this stock will either be below 2BTC or above 6BTC by January. If they crank out some 22nm tech ahead of the competition, they will shoot up exponentally - 8BTC even possible. If competitors such as cointerra, hashfast, BFL (yeah right!) release their tech earlier or even at the same time, ASICMiner will drop like a rock with support being potentially very low - below 2BTC.

I think the next phase of bitcoin mining will have more to do with cost than first mover or fancy tech, to be honest. The market here is the hobby/individual miner, not huge mining farms (though that can be lucrative, too). For that market, it's cost per hashrate. Power is less of an issue, because of scale. As long as USD/BTC maintains a decent value, I think the market will value cost over efficiency, leading edge, and first availability.

If AM can beat the competition in terms of availability AND cost, then nothing can stop them.

FC just said that they have been withholding profits for production in Sep/Oct of lots of units. To me, that means AM is focused on volume, which should make the cost attractive to the market.

freedomno1

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Quote from: eb3full on August 22, 2013, 12:34:44 AM

I'm the one who's out 25% of what I sold today and I still feel bad for Vycid. ahahahahahahaha

Ah eb3 + 1 + 1

mechs

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Quote from: velacreations on August 22, 2013, 12:27:25 AM

Quote from: mechs on August 22, 2013, 12:18:12 AM

I posted 2 week ago we would see 3 before 5 and we did. Now my guess, we stay between 2.6 - 3.4 until next Wednesday. Too many speculator under-water who will keep this stock down by selling on any move up without real news.
Good news is that ASICMiner no longer priced for perfection. Next dividend or some news on impressive new hardware before next wednesday only things to move this stock significantly either way. I cannot guess where it will go at this point. However, if no news by next wednesday and a another dividend under .02 and we will see 2.5BTC. A strong dividend close to .03 will push us to 3.6 - 3.8.

I agree, you were right on the 3 vs 5 prediction.

The only places I disagree here are the following:

1. News was literally just posted by FC.

2. If we have a .03 div, we'll pass 4.

The truth is these are all short-term educated trading guesses based on unknowable future events. Long-term (well long-term being 4-6 months which us long term in bitcoin world) this stock will either be below 2BTC or above 6BTC by January. If they crank out some 22nm tech ahead of the competition, they will shoot up exponentally - 8BTC even possible. If competitors such as cointerra, hashfast, BFL (yeah right!) release their tech earlier or even at the same time, ASICMiner will drop like a rock with support being potentially very low - below 2BTC.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 138. (Read 808905 times)