ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 159.

culexevilman

legendary

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Bitcoin is too valuable to be used as a currency

Quote from: Transisto on August 08, 2013, 02:54:44 AM

I think the main reason why the share is tanking is because there are 13 500 share stuck into BitFunder.
For the last 10+ days I've been told there is still a huge mess with Friedcat accounting (him crediting the wrong people with shares) and that's why DeadTerra has halted all shares transfer in/out while this is solved.

To be honest, I am not surprised, initially I had clearly asked my share to be moved to Deadterra on BitFunder but they ended up to Burnside at BTCT.co.

This is the reason colored coin or openTransaction should have been used for managing shares transfers !!!

If thats true then its truly fucked up...

Transisto

donator

Activity: 1731

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I think the main reason why the share is tanking is because there are 13 500 share stuck into BitFunder.
For the last 10+ days I've been told there is still a huge mess with Friedcat accounting (him crediting the wrong people with shares) and that's why DeadTerra has halted all shares transfer in/out while this is solved.

To be honest, I am not surprised, initially I had clearly asked my share to be moved to Deadterra on BitFunder but they ended up to Burnside at BTCT.co.

This is the reason colored coin or openTransaction should have been used for managing shares transfers !!!

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 07:13:25 PM

This is quite intuitive, but what about the reverse scenario where the BTC price climbs by a few orders of magnitude? I have a hard time imagining what effect that would have on BTC denominated stock prices for mining companies. It can't have NO effect...

Ok I'm not saying it doesn't have effects, I'm trying to say that USD exchange rate appreciation or depreciation shouldn't be taken into account into determining how much you gained or lost.
Because you would have gained or lost the exact same % if you just hold the BTC without investing them.

Lohoris

hero member

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Bitgoblin

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Lohoris on August 07, 2013, 06:22:04 PM

Again, the BTCUSD exchange rate is completely irrelevant if you calculate share price / dividends, since you would make theoretical gains even just holding BTC.
How many times will I have to repeat that? Will people never learn?
Shouldn't be difficult...

Well, I wouldn't say completely irrelevant. Since we're speculating long term here, a scenario where BTC/fiat begins a decline towards zero

Even in that case, it does not matter if you just hold BTC or if you hold BTC-denominated shares: it goes to 0 either case.

chriswilmer

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Lohoris on August 07, 2013, 06:22:04 PM

Again, the BTCUSD exchange rate is completely irrelevant if you calculate share price / dividends, since you would make theoretical gains even just holding BTC.
How many times will I have to repeat that? Will people never learn?
Shouldn't be difficult...

Well, I wouldn't say completely irrelevant. Since we're speculating long term here, a scenario where BTC/fiat begins a decline towards zero will probably see share prices of all these mining outfits also follow towards zero (especially if a decline continued after the next block reward halving). In this scenario, it's likely some kind of competitor to bitcoin itself overtakes bitcoin, uses a different method that can't use the bitcoin ASICs, and makes a whole lot of of these chips just landfill. This will likely happen if demand for bitcoin falls enough so that they don't really have value and you're spending 10,000BTC on a pizza again while only needing CPU mining.

I think much of the current bitcoin value is speculation that the BTC/fiat ratio will continue to rise in the future.

But I'm no expert, I just enjoy the speculating and the discussions.

This is quite intuitive, but what about the reverse scenario where the BTC price climbs by a few orders of magnitude? I have a hard time imagining what effect that would have on BTC denominated stock prices for mining companies. It can't have NO effect...

Lohoris

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

Bitgoblin

Again, the BTCUSD exchange rate is completely irrelevant if you calculate share price / dividends, since you would make theoretical gains even just holding BTC.
How many times will I have to repeat that? Will people never learn?
Shouldn't be difficult...

Quote from: Rival on August 07, 2013, 11:57:39 AM

“The Alydian team has worked diligently over the past year and we are excited to be the first in this industry to offer multi-terahash-speed turnkey mining systems available for delivery this month,” said Vessenes.

Sounds like a bigger unicorn has been imagined into existence. I wonder where these magic beans... I mean CHIPS are coming from?

I misread "turkey".

chriswilmer

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I'll throw in a crazy speculation... hey, wouldn't it be crazy if ASICMiner ran a steady business for the next 10 years? Everyone here casually assumes, understandably, that the risk is high and everything that exists today could be gone in a year or two, but what if it didn't? Can you imagine collecting 10 years of dividends from ASICMiner if they held onto 10% of the hashrate? What if bitcoins are worth a $10,000 USD each? That would be crazy. Not impossible though... consider that although many competitors are emerging, electricity and labor is still (almost) the cheapest in China. After everyone gets to the 15nm process (or whatever), the price of electricity/labor/taxes will pretty much determine who the major players are.

There, that's some pie-in-the-sky speculation for you.

hak8or

full member

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Merit: 100

Seeing as this is the speculation thread but I do not really see any speculation about the price, are there are opinions on why share price is dropping for the past few weeks? Is it other IPO's causing the very limited supply of BTC to move out of AsicMiner and into alternative companies, chasing more gains? Has faith been lost in AsicMiner, in part due to Freidcat seemingly releasing information on Chinese forums, most of which us non Mandarin/Cantonese speakers can't find or read? I personally think it is all of the above.

chriswilmer

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Quote from: Rival on August 07, 2013, 02:14:33 PM

TAT shares paid out promptly as usual. Good job!

Yes, thank you TAT!

Rival

hero member

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TAT shares paid out promptly as usual. Good job!

velacreations

sr. member

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Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:51:56 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 07, 2013, 01:49:00 PM

I guess I should have quoted just your last line. You are saying Alydian is expensive compared to upcoming devices, but that statement is only true if upcoming devices actually deliver. If they don't deliver, then the point is moot.

Basically, same ol' story people have been talking about for months. Promises are cheap, delivery costs more.

The same is also true of Alydian. Why assume that they will deliver but nobody else will?

I don't assume they deliver, and I assume they are buying hardware from upcoming providers. But, that price is only expensive if there is a surplus of hardware on the market and some options to choose from.

That remains to be seen.

The Alydian price is not bad, if it's your only choice.

Mabsark

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Quote from: velacreations on August 07, 2013, 01:49:00 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:45:29 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 07, 2013, 01:36:21 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:12:33 PM

I'd expect it to be price competitive with hardware that it's time competitive with. I've said many times here that AM's pricing is due to them basically currently having a monopoly on off the shelf devices.

The point I was making is that it is expensive compared to upcoming devices. That's because they will be using those upcoming devices and simply adding a bit extra to the price to make a profit.

provided that they actually deliver on time...

Your comment makes no sense. I'm saying AM will be price competitive with anyone who is actually shipping off the shelf. The reason AM's devices are overpriced is because they are basically the only company currently shipping off the shelf. I though that was pretty clear.

I guess I should have quoted just your last line. You are saying Alydian is expensive compared to upcoming devices, but that statement is only true if upcoming devices actually deliver. If they don't deliver, then the point is moot.

Basically, same ol' story people have been talking about for months. Promises are cheap, delivery costs more.

The same is also true of Alydian. Why assume that they will deliver but nobody else will?

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:45:29 PM

Quote from: velacreations on August 07, 2013, 01:36:21 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:12:33 PM

I'd expect it to be price competitive with hardware that it's time competitive with. I've said many times here that AM's pricing is due to them basically currently having a monopoly on off the shelf devices.

The point I was making is that it is expensive compared to upcoming devices. That's because they will be using those upcoming devices and simply adding a bit extra to the price to make a profit.

provided that they actually deliver on time...

Your comment makes no sense. I'm saying AM will be price competitive with anyone who is actually shipping off the shelf. The reason AM's devices are overpriced is because they are basically the only company currently shipping off the shelf. I though that was pretty clear.

I guess I should have quoted just your last line. You are saying Alydian is expensive compared to upcoming devices, but that statement is only true if upcoming devices actually deliver. If they don't deliver, then the point is moot.

Basically, same ol' story people have been talking about for months. Promises are cheap, delivery costs more.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: velacreations on August 07, 2013, 01:36:21 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:12:33 PM

I'd expect it to be price competitive with hardware that it's time competitive with. I've said many times here that AM's pricing is due to them basically currently having a monopoly on off the shelf devices.

The point I was making is that it is expensive compared to upcoming devices. That's because they will be using those upcoming devices and simply adding a bit extra to the price to make a profit.

provided that they actually deliver on time...

Your comment makes no sense. I'm saying AM will be price competitive with anyone who is actually shipping off the shelf. The reason AM's devices are overpriced is because they are basically the only company currently shipping off the shelf. I though that was pretty clear.

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: PeterB on August 07, 2013, 01:21:51 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 12:45:16 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 12:25:49 PM

Quote from: KS on August 07, 2013, 12:17:44 PM

www.alydian.co

Quote

Alydian’s turnkey Bitcoin mining solutions can be deployed in our datacenter or customer datacenters.

Included:

- One year of hosting
- All energy costs
- All maintenance costs

August Availability:

- 5TH/s: $350k
- 10TH/s: $650k

srsly 65K per TH? WTF!

Isn't that kind of reasonable? My back of the envelope calculation is that it's ~5-10 times more cost efficient ($'s per hash per second) than a current USB ASICMiner block eruptor.

AM devices have always been massively overpriced. Try doing the comparison with KnC Jupiters.

KnC Jupiter
400 Gh/s
6,995 USD
Available September
1 year hosting cost: 3,960 USD

27,387.5 USD per Th/s

How many have they shipped?

How much hashing power has Alydian brought online?

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 01:12:33 PM

I'd expect it to be price competitive with hardware that it's time competitive with. I've said many times here that AM's pricing is due to them basically currently having a monopoly on off the shelf devices.

The point I was making is that it is expensive compared to upcoming devices. That's because they will be using those upcoming devices and simply adding a bit extra to the price to make a profit.

provided that they actually deliver on time...

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Dividend is 0.02457145, or at 3.8, or 33.6% APR

I expect the share price to rise towards 4.25 on a div like this.

PeterB

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 12:45:16 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 12:25:49 PM

Quote from: KS on August 07, 2013, 12:17:44 PM

www.alydian.co

Quote

Alydian’s turnkey Bitcoin mining solutions can be deployed in our datacenter or customer datacenters.

Included:

- One year of hosting
- All energy costs
- All maintenance costs

August Availability:

- 5TH/s: $350k
- 10TH/s: $650k

srsly 65K per TH? WTF!

Isn't that kind of reasonable? My back of the envelope calculation is that it's ~5-10 times more cost efficient ($'s per hash per second) than a current USB ASICMiner block eruptor.

AM devices have always been massively overpriced. Try doing the comparison with KnC Jupiters.

KnC Jupiter
400 Gh/s
6,995 USD
Available September
1 year hosting cost: 3,960 USD

27,387.5 USD per Th/s

How many have they shipped?

Mabsark

legendary

Activity: 826

Merit: 1004

Quote from: binaryFate on August 07, 2013, 12:47:48 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 12:45:16 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 12:25:49 PM

Quote from: KS on August 07, 2013, 12:17:44 PM

www.alydian.co

Quote

Alydian’s turnkey Bitcoin mining solutions can be deployed in our datacenter or customer datacenters.

Included:

- One year of hosting
- All energy costs
- All maintenance costs

August Availability:

- 5TH/s: $350k
- 10TH/s: $650k

srsly 65K per TH? WTF!

Isn't that kind of reasonable? My back of the envelope calculation is that it's ~5-10 times more cost efficient ($'s per hash per second) than a current USB ASICMiner block eruptor.

AM devices have always been massively overpriced. Try doing the comparison with KnC Jupiters.

KnC Jupiter
400 Gh/s
6,995 USD
Available September
1 year hosting cost: 3,960 USD

27,387.5 USD per Th/s

Wait to see the price of AM hardware in September then. Doesn't make sense to compare using different times.

I'd expect it to be price competitive with hardware that it's time competitive with. I've said many times here that AM's pricing is due to them basically currently having a monopoly on off the shelf devices.

The point I was making is that it is expensive compared to upcoming devices. That's because they will be using those upcoming devices and simply adding a bit extra to the price to make a profit.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1003

Still wild and free

Quote from: Mabsark on August 07, 2013, 12:45:16 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 12:25:49 PM

Quote from: KS on August 07, 2013, 12:17:44 PM

www.alydian.co

Quote

Alydian’s turnkey Bitcoin mining solutions can be deployed in our datacenter or customer datacenters.

Included:

- One year of hosting
- All energy costs
- All maintenance costs

August Availability:

- 5TH/s: $350k
- 10TH/s: $650k

srsly 65K per TH? WTF!

Isn't that kind of reasonable? My back of the envelope calculation is that it's ~5-10 times more cost efficient ($'s per hash per second) than a current USB ASICMiner block eruptor.

AM devices have always been massively overpriced. Try doing the comparison with KnC Jupiters.

KnC Jupiter
400 Gh/s
6,995 USD
Available September
1 year hosting cost: 3,960 USD

27,387.5 USD per Th/s

Wait to see the price of AM hardware in September then. Doesn't make sense to compare using different times.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 159. (Read 808757 times)