Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 162. (Read 808847 times)

well, the cutting of the tress is regulated, here, by a natural limitation: difficulty.  So, the important thing is really not hash rate, but your percentage of the network.  If AM is able to maintain 10-30% into the future, they will maintain mining dividend levels.  Of course, selling their hardware let's them have a bigger chunk of the network percentage, effectively.  Also, leasing hardware has the same result.  

So, at some point, AM might have 20% of the network mining themselves, 20% mining using their hardware, and 20% mining, but leased to other entities.

By my calculations, AM has at least 180 TH/s they have yet to deploy, so just for maintaining their percentage, they should be good until the network passes the PT/s milestone (triple the current hash).  And, I expect they will have more hardware in the works by that time.

That is a nice chart. It does indeed look like they are keeping up. But I can't help but be reminded of the tragedy of the commons. Everyone is rushing to cut down the forest as fast as they can before someone else comes along and cuts it down. Eventually you run out of trees. Now, I know we will not in our lifetime run out of trees (bitcoins to mine), but we may well get to the point that it is no longer profitable for anyone anywhere to make, sell, or buy ASICs. There are two things that can prevent this: increased adoption leading to higher transaction fees in blocks, and increased value of BTC (which would essentially go hand in hand). I look forward to seeing how ASIC development and economic growth struggle to keep an equilibrium. If it works, it will prove once again that free markets actually work efficiently.

Consider that in the forest it may become unprofitable to make saws, even as the price of firewood goes through the ceiling.

well, if 10 Th/s is actually coming online every day, then AM should be putting up 1-2 TH/s a day to keep up.

Look at AM's hash increase.  I think they have things under control:

With over 10 Th/s coming online daily, 60 Th/s will be run over in no time. We need to see Ph/s and soon.

I think AM is addressing this increase in hash.  The AM has is increasing, as well.  It's currently over 60 TH/s

By the way, BFL has been shipping 10's of Th/s every single day. I know they have been the hated stepchild for over a year, but those units are arriving en mass daily, and the effect BFL is having on global hash cannot be ignored. The swelling of hash in the major mining pools may soon be problematic to AM shareholders if not addressed.

I know.. "BFL blah, blah, scammers, blah, blah, a year behind schedule, blah blah...". Say what you want, their hash is coming online across the world in a rather big way, and it is showing up in the global hash.

well, at this time yesterday, BTCT was in the 3.8's.  It is now over 4.  So, yes, it did rise.

I have been thinking a bit about bitcoin investments, and about AM in particular. I think there is a common misconception that fails to take into account the Observer Effect.

Suppose I decide to purchase a 50Gh/s miner from BFL today. Most people would base this decision in large part by when they expected to receive it. Once ordered, they are in a great hurry for it to arrive, trying to get it up and running before the difficulty gets insane. The problem is, from a certain perspective, it matters less when they get it than they think. The reason is, there are already thousands of people ahead of them in the queue. The very fact that their miner arrives means that all of these others have been delivered, guaranteeing the very difficulty increases they are racing against. They were doomed before they ever made the purchase. Of course, there are other factors, such as the possibility of other companies delivering additional hash. Getting your hash on line before theirs is certainly advantageous. But If I were to bring online a hashing power equivalent to the current global hash tomorrow, I would effectively double the difficulty, devaluing the very hashes I want to profit from.

For companies in the business of hashing (or at least the prospect of hashing someday) the Observer Effect if ignored can dash any potential they may have of surviving. As I noted in a previous post if one would add up the projected hash totals of all of the mining outfits on BTC-TC, it would equal more than 200% of the global hash. Most of these outfits will fail miserably to obtain their projected percentages of global hash, and they most certainly will drive the difficulty through the roof, making it even harder for themselves to attain the percentages they desire. They are all in effect eating their tails.

It has been almost axiomatic that early adopters pay the development costs. The first guy who bought a cell phone paid thousands and thousands, today they can be had for free. A successful venture in the bitcoin mining space must certainly avoid this. It was easy initially, when there was no real competition, and AM was able to claim a large chunk of hash for himself and his shareholders. The profits available just from being the hash bully were easily able to recoup development costs. Once other players arrived, FC shifted strategies, and sold large hash in small packages to the public in general, and as usual the early adopters shouldered the weight of development costs. Just look at those who paid 1.99 btc per USB a scant few months ago. If FC was a fool, that added global hash distributed across the world would have beaten down his share of global mining hash. But it did not. It did not because he held more in reserve in anticipation of the Observer Effect. I think it is safe to believe that FC accounts for this, and accounts for it quite well.

When I see other groups projecting target percentages of 20% or 30% of the global hash, I have to wonder if these projections are even remotely based upon the inclusion of their own hash's contribution to the difficulty. Perhaps they just see an infinite number of chips pouring off assembly lines into their farms, never realizing that every chip they produce devalues the one before it. They are constantly in the process of making their own equipment worthless. I am looking forward to seeing how FC perseveres in this new environment where the "first mover" power factors less.  

Think again.

Nope.  Shares at 380 at havelock and bitfunder.  It seems to be going down.

it seems like they are getting some of the issues sorted out with the mining operation, and I expect the new hardware will be quick to follow.  In fact, some of the new hash rate might be new hardware, which means FC will likely start selling it, soon.

dividends should be pretty sweet this week eh?

I'm very impressed that AM has been able to increase it's hashing power in somewhat lock-step with the network hashrate. It's at a 24h average of ~60GH, which would have blown us out of the water 2-4 weeks ago.

Looks like a significant increase in just the past few day for the network overall.

Seems a part of the sales went in early this week still it looks impressive

I agree, we might even hit 4.5 before dividend.

Well a return to 4.3X shouldn't be out of the picture

I think this means that AM is going to rise, today.

As i know, dividend prediction does not include sales at all - so it's just the mining revenue

you guys better move those sell orders, the crowd's coming in...