ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 155.

Rannasha

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Quote from: tinus42 on August 10, 2013, 11:58:17 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: btcbot on August 10, 2013, 10:52:08 AM

When they're more than 5% cheaper than the full shares, more shares/divs...

Exactly.
It looks like people can't into math. Or they're in for the other benefits of full shares, of course.

From Havelock, yields:
AM1 32.76%
AM100 33.53%

In the near future AM1 shares should be convertible to direct shares. Maybe that explains the slight difference. AM100 shares should be multiplied by 100 x (100/95) for comparison as the 5% fee is priced in. That currently gives 3.789 vs 3.9 for AM1.

There will be additional buying pressure for AM100, since it's easier to get into as you don't need almost 4 BTC to get a single share. This makes AM100 much more attractive for smaller investors, which translates into increased demand.

tinus42

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: btcbot on August 10, 2013, 10:52:08 AM

When they're more than 5% cheaper than the full shares, more shares/divs...

Exactly.
It looks like people can't into math. Or they're in for the other benefits of full shares, of course.

From Havelock, yields:
AM1 32.76%
AM100 33.53%

In the near future AM1 shares should be convertible to direct shares. Maybe that explains the slight difference. AM100 shares should be multiplied by 100 x (100/95) for comparison as the 5% fee is priced in. That currently gives 3.789 vs 3.9 for AM1.

btcbot

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Quote from: tinus42 on August 10, 2013, 10:50:58 AM

Quote from: talz0r on August 09, 2013, 08:19:05 PM

Does anyone care about the fractional shares offered on Havelock? (ASICM100)

What are the advantages of having one over the other?

Pro: you can buy them when you don't have enough for a full share (and are a good target for reinvesting divs)
Contra: you only get 95% of divs, TAT takes 5% for "management fees".

When they're more than 5% cheaper than the full shares, more shares/divs...

tinus42

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Quote from: talz0r on August 09, 2013, 08:19:05 PM

Does anyone care about the fractional shares offered on Havelock? (ASICM100)

What are the advantages of having one over the other?

Pro: you can buy AM100 shares when you don't have enough for a full share (and they are a good target for reinvesting divs)
Contra: you only get 95% of divs, TAT takes 5% for "management fees". AM1 shares pay out 100%

btcbot

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Quote from: Rannasha on August 10, 2013, 10:08:34 AM

Quote from: btcbot on August 10, 2013, 09:58:10 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:48:31 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 24, 2013, 09:17:08 AM

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that. I typically see a rise right before dividend...

I've been seeing Tuesdays as down days, too. Any source of historical data available?

http://www.coinflow.co/chart/ASICMINER-PT has a historical graph.

The BTCT API also willingly spits out the entire trade history if you want to run your own analysis.

Right... would be nice if I didn't have to login to look at the API. Roll Eyes

https://btct.co/api/ticker/ASICMINER-PT

I'll do a dump sometime this week...

Rannasha

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Quote from: btcbot on August 10, 2013, 09:58:10 AM

Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:48:31 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 24, 2013, 09:17:08 AM

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that. I typically see a rise right before dividend...

I've been seeing Tuesdays as down days, too. Any source of historical data available?

http://www.coinflow.co/chart/ASICMINER-PT has a historical graph.

The BTCT API also willingly spits out the entire trade history if you want to run your own analysis.

btcbot

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Quote from: velacreations on June 24, 2013, 09:48:31 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 24, 2013, 09:17:08 AM

Yah, although traditionally it has dropped the half a day before the dividend because the sell off earns more.

I don't see that. I typically see a rise right before dividend...

I've been seeing Tuesdays as down days, too. Any source of historical data available?

kleeck

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https://karatcoin.co

Quote from: JordanL on August 10, 2013, 06:54:12 AM

To the moon folks, to the moon.

Those who were/are shares for under 4BTC last week are insane.

It's still under 4. I'm thinking it probably won't hit/pass 4 until Monday or Tuesday.

velacreations

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Quote from: JordanL on August 10, 2013, 06:54:12 AM

To the moon folks, to the moon.

Those who were/are shares for under 4BTC last week are insane.

yes, I agree. We may see .04+ dividend in the coming weeks, and I expect share price to top 5 in August.

JordanL

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To the moon folks, to the moon.

Those who were/are shares for under 4BTC last week are insane.

btcbot

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Quote from: talz0r on August 09, 2013, 08:22:43 PM

Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 04:21:12 PM

I'll throw in a crazy speculation... hey, wouldn't it be crazy if ASICMiner ran a steady business for the next 10 years? Everyone here casually assumes, understandably, that the risk is high and everything that exists today could be gone in a year or two, but what if it didn't? Can you imagine collecting 10 years of dividends from ASICMiner if they held onto 10% of the hashrate? What if bitcoins are worth a $10,000 USD each? That would be crazy. Not impossible though... consider that although many competitors are emerging, electricity and labor is still (almost) the cheapest in China. After everyone gets to the 15nm process (or whatever), the price of electricity/labor/taxes will pretty much determine who the major players are.

There, that's some pie-in-the-sky speculation for you.

hehehe

This is pretty much how I look at it too.

In a lot of ways Friedcat himself seems to take a long view, too... good customer service, over-delivering, hefty dividends, never over-promising. I suspect we'd get bought out before 10 years is up, though...

talz0r

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Quote from: chriswilmer on August 07, 2013, 04:21:12 PM

I'll throw in a crazy speculation... hey, wouldn't it be crazy if ASICMiner ran a steady business for the next 10 years? Everyone here casually assumes, understandably, that the risk is high and everything that exists today could be gone in a year or two, but what if it didn't? Can you imagine collecting 10 years of dividends from ASICMiner if they held onto 10% of the hashrate? What if bitcoins are worth a $10,000 USD each? That would be crazy. Not impossible though... consider that although many competitors are emerging, electricity and labor is still (almost) the cheapest in China. After everyone gets to the 15nm process (or whatever), the price of electricity/labor/taxes will pretty much determine who the major players are.

There, that's some pie-in-the-sky speculation for you.

hehehe

This is pretty much how I look at it too.

ahbartsch

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Quote from: talz0r on August 09, 2013, 08:19:05 PM

Does anyone care about the fractional shares offered on Havelock? (ASICM100)

What are the advantages of having one over the other?

Versus AM1? It's if you can't afford full shares.

talz0r

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Does anyone care about the fractional shares offered on Havelock? (ASICM100)

What are the advantages of having one over the other?

bbxx

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cryptoshark

dont worry, real price of AM shares is in Economy Marketplace Auctions

way above 4 now

btcbot

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Quote from: AMuppInTime on August 09, 2013, 11:51:01 AM

Quote from: btcbot on August 09, 2013, 11:00:38 AM

Yeah, I think it just should have stalled at 4.00 for a while, but this looks like a planned range dump. He'll try and raise the range over the next few days. Between this and the Coinbase outage... wish I had a few more coins!

If the dude knew what he was doing, he'd just put a big 100+ sell at 4.10 and wait the world to come to him... the whole scene is amateur hour...

but right after there was a matching move down:

2013-08-09 16:23:42   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:41   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.802   ฿ 38.02
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.801   ฿ 11.403
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   2   ฿ 3.853   ฿ 7.706
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.85   ฿ 11.55
2013-08-09 16:23:38   Market Sell   1   ฿ 3.854   ฿ 3.854

what does range dump mean? making the spread wider?

I'm just talking out of my ass as a penny stock loser, but it looks like this guy knows how to get orders filled but doesn't know how to take advantage of momentum. He's gone and fuckin' destroyed all the hype from the announcement. He throws out a sell and it doesn't get filled and then another and another... it's idiotic.

AMuppInTime

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Quote from: btcbot on August 09, 2013, 11:00:38 AM

Yeah, I think it just should have stalled at 4.00 for a while, but this looks like a planned range dump. He'll try and raise the range over the next few days. Between this and the Coinbase outage... wish I had a few more coins!

If the dude knew what he was doing, he'd just put a big 100+ sell at 4.10 and wait the world to come to him... the whole scene is amateur hour...

but right after there was a matching move down:

2013-08-09 16:23:42   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:41   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.8   ฿ 38
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   10   ฿ 3.802   ฿ 38.02
2013-08-09 16:23:40   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.801   ฿ 11.403
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   2   ฿ 3.853   ฿ 7.706
2013-08-09 16:23:39   Market Sell   3   ฿ 3.85   ฿ 11.55
2013-08-09 16:23:38   Market Sell   1   ฿ 3.854   ฿ 3.854

what does range dump mean? making the spread wider?

btcbot

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Quote from: AMuppInTime on August 09, 2013, 10:50:48 AM

Quote from: btcbot on August 09, 2013, 10:40:57 AM

Th'ar she blows!!!

And the whale is back!

are you talking about
13-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.973   ฿ 7.946
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.974   ฿ 3.974
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   15   ฿ 3.975   ฿ 59.625
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.939   ฿ 3.939
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   3   ฿ 3.944   ฿ 11.832
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.97   ฿ 3.97
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   10   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 39
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 3.9
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.91   ฿ 3.91
2013-08-09 15:48:31   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.899   ฿ 7.798
?

Yeah, I think it just should have stalled at 4.00 for a while, but this looks like a planned range dump. He'll try and raise the range over the next few days. Between this and the Coinbase outage... wish I had a few more coins!

If the dude knew what he was doing, he'd just put a big 100+ sell at 4.10 and wait the world to come to him... the whole scene is amateur hour...

superduh

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baby whale who has $16k worth of coins

AMuppInTime

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Quote from: btcbot on August 09, 2013, 10:40:57 AM

Th'ar she blows!!!

And the whale is back!

are you talking about
13-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.973   ฿ 7.946
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.974   ฿ 3.974
2013-08-09 15:48:34   Market Buy   15   ฿ 3.975   ฿ 59.625
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.939   ฿ 3.939
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   3   ฿ 3.944   ฿ 11.832
2013-08-09 15:48:33   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.97   ฿ 3.97
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   10   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 39
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.9   ฿ 3.9
2013-08-09 15:48:32   Market Buy   1   ฿ 3.91   ฿ 3.91
2013-08-09 15:48:31   Market Buy   2   ฿ 3.899   ฿ 7.798
?

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 155. (Read 808905 times)