Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 80. (Read 808905 times)
fuckin hate bots. always undercutting you. within seconds. bastards
guy is buying up shares .88 - 1.1 and the lowest bid is .86. Then instantly a bid is posted at .95 range... obviously not trying to buy shares a good price. Its artificial pumping and his bids are getting sold to nearly as fast.
I've been watching Havelock really closely (too closely, really) for quite some time as I'm into quite a few of their offerings, and this is something I've noticed in most of the securities outside of ASICminer too. NEOBEE for sure it happens. No mater what the most recent sell is, almost immediately bids and asks right around that fill in the gap. Within milliseconds. Which leads me to believe that it's a program someone's running, rather than a person manually entering bids and asks. Havelock's API is available. It wouldn't be too hard to write a program that sets bids and asks around a given price.
It's just bots. "Normal" bot behavior can trick suspicious people like talnted into thinking other meta trends are related. The simple answer here is that the price is volatile and can be moved 10-30% with relatively low volume. Put more orders on the books and this will be mitigated.
guy is buying up shares .88 - 1.1 and the lowest bid is .86. Then instantly a bid is posted at .95 range... obviously not trying to buy shares a good price. Its artificial pumping and his bids are getting sold to nearly as fast.
I've been watching Havelock really closely (too closely, really) for quite some time as I'm into quite a few of their offerings, and this is something I've noticed in most of the securities outside of ASICminer too. NEOBEE for sure it happens. No mater what the most recent sell is, almost immediately bids and asks right around that fill in the gap. Within milliseconds. Which leads me to believe that it's a program someone's running, rather than a person manually entering bids and asks. Havelock's API is available. It wouldn't be too hard to write a program that sets bids and asks around a given price.
The profit is with low volume in bids and asks they can move the price and manipulate, you can profit doing it either direction. You try and have the public gap fill and sell high or buy low. its super easy if there are only 20 or so shares seperating .88 and 1.15 on the ask side.
It's not that easy. You always run the risk that someone with high volume undercuts you and then you're screwed. Especially when your avg share price can be calculated.I am saying the price movement is easy... not profiting.. I made the point that it won't work and is a bad idea.
According to my calculations (@30%apr) asicminer should be hashing at around 250 th/s to be valued at 1btc/share (currently at 50th/s). And for that to be true we would need to expect constant hash rate growth along with the difficulty increase which doesn't seem to be happening.
The 30 % rule seems to provide a good approximation, but "currently at 50th/s" is probably too low. erpao.info shows only 47 TH/s, but that's just the air cooling data center, I think. This was posted on Oct 9:
Self-retained (not sold) Hashrate distribution:
Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.
Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.
If this is accurate, AM should have a combined hashrate of 126 TH/s or 122,2 TH/s, if franchising is factored with 0.8. But even this is not really accurate, because it doesn't include hardware sales, which seems to be a significant factor.
I hope the report tomorrow brings some transparency..
The profit is with low volume in bids and asks they can move the price and manipulate, you can profit doing it either direction. You try and have the public gap fill and sell high or buy low. its super easy if there are only 20 or so shares seperating .88 and 1.15 on the ask side.
It's not that easy. You always run the risk that someone with high volume undercuts you and then you're screwed. Especially when your avg share price can be calculated. 
This does look like a classic case of pump and dump. The interview really didn't say anything new that was unknown but people took the news as "asicminer is going to have 1000th/s solo mining" instead of "asicminer will have sold a total of 1000th/s"
According to my calculations (@30%apr) asicminer should be hashing at around 250 th/s to be valued at 1btc/share (currently at 50th/s). And for that to be true we would need to expect constant hash rate growth along with the difficulty increase which doesn't seem to be happening.
According to my calculations (@30%apr) asicminer should be hashing at around 250 th/s to be valued at 1btc/share (currently at 50th/s). And for that to be true we would need to expect constant hash rate growth along with the difficulty increase which doesn't seem to be happening.
The profit is with low volume in bids and asks they can move the price and manipulate, you can profit doing it either direction. You try and have the public gap fill and sell high or buy low. its super easy if there are only 20 or so shares seperating .88 and 1.15 on the ask side.
No rational person posts a bid .05 - .1 btc higher than the next lowest bid. I hold ASICMINER shares so I would love to see them go up. I have just seen these movements before and they don't amount to anything real. Its one person.
Watch... havelock has almost no activity, so its easy to spot
So about 450BTC in 24h is almost no activity? Watch... havelock has almost no activity, so its easy to spot. it happens at the same time. guy is buying up shares .88 - 1.1 and the lowest bid is .86. Then instantly a bid is posted at .95 range... obviously not trying to buy shares a good price. Its artificial pumping and his bids are getting sold to nearly as fast.
But still, why do that if it's one person? Even if you are able to sell at .95, if you bought at 1.1, where's the profit in that?
Not saying you're wrong, I just don't get why someone would do that. I think it's a few people jockeying for position.
Plus, isn't Havelock at the highest volume it's seen in weeks?
unfortunately for him the strategy doesn't do anything and he is just throwing away btc. currently a .3 btc spread between bid and asks..
Watch... havelock has almost no activity, so its easy to spot. it happens at the same time. guy is buying up shares .88 - 1.1 and the lowest bid is .86. Then instantly a bid is posted at .95 range... obviously not trying to buy shares a good price. Its artificial pumping and his bids are getting sold to nearly as fast.
I thought the chinese lady said nothing new, only confirmed what was already on the table?
well it was at least a bit more positive words about 3rd gen development.
until the interview i don't recall reading any more precise info about when or even if it's gonna be released.
Its one person pumping the price... low volume. Buying up and immediately putting in bids trying to gap fill. Artificial but wish it was real..
How can you tell? Serious question, I'm genuinely curious.
I guess what I'm asking is, what would be their motivation for doing that? There's quite a big spread so buying high, they would have to sell at a loss.
Its one person pumping the price... low volume. Buying up and immediately putting in bids trying to gap fill. Artificial but wish it was real..
I thought the chinese lady said nothing new, only confirmed what was already on the table?
That's true.
AM1 on Havelock touched 1 BTC by the way.
I thought the chinese lady said nothing new, only confirmed what was already on the table?
Everyone else didn't know until after the price-rise.
Not entirely true. I saw it on this forum, went and bought and the price was only up a bit by that point. It doubled once people from here were moving in large numbers. You just had to be quick.
I know what you mean, though. It shouldn't be given out to some people and not others.
+1 one to me. Held shares for 3/4 months. Sold my shares after losing 4/5ths of their value. Day after I sell the video comes out and the shares just about double. I'm not bitter or crying over it but ya, would be nice if everyone had the same info on which to base decisions.
But that's a big part of why I got out. There has been many plans announced but only some of them seem to get followed through, and most of the time, shareholders are in the dark. Lol and Asicminer is one of the better of the companies available to invest in, on Havelock.
Is there a more recent version of this?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9
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