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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 76. (Read 808905 times)

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
October 31, 2013, 03:47:54 PM
Announcing G.ASICMINER, AM100, and TAT.ASICMINER temporary conversion services:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3452278
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
October 31, 2013, 12:44:58 PM
anyone know the total amount of dividends paid out per share since the start?

thanks

It's a total payout of 0.5941/share, a profit of 0.4941/share (removing the 0.1 initial investment).

So board members from the early hour made at least BTC2470.5 in dividends in only 14 months if they held on to their shares. AM must be one of the best investments ever (for the people who got in early).


This is undisputed. If you bought at the IPO price and sold this summer, while Bitcoin itself climbed by 10-20x in value, you made the one of best investments in human history.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 501
October 31, 2013, 12:32:57 PM
anyone know the total amount of dividends paid out per share since the start?

thanks

It's a total payout of 0.5941/share, a profit of 0.4941/share (removing the 0.1 initial investment).

So board members from the early hour made at least BTC2470.5 in dividends in only 14 months if they held on to their shares. AM must be one of the best investments ever (for the people who got in early).
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
October 31, 2013, 12:19:16 PM
anyone know the total amount of dividends paid out per share since the start?

thanks

It's a total payout of 0.5941/share, a profit of 0.4941/share (removing the 0.1 initial investment).
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
October 31, 2013, 05:50:36 AM
  I'm panic buying while it's cheap... because when bitcoin is $400+, I can still count on divs, even if I cant afford shares.

QFT.
KS
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
October 31, 2013, 01:22:48 AM
I'm sure he has done the maths, but I wonder if 28 nm was excluded because he couldn't attract the talent? Why did 3 other startups choose 28 nm? Are they all wrong and FC is right?

It could be both, but the poor 28nm design from KFC vs the good 55nm BitFury design shows that 28nm is not necessarily the best choice. There is another problem: you can't flood the network with ultra fast miners unless you want to kill it. That means slow deployment. If it means slow deployment, why spend millions on a process you can't use before everybody else has caught up? Stick with cheap and iterate. Next year 28nm will cheaper than this year, etc.

28nm looks cool, but is it really useful (right now) for mining? I don't think so.

full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 100
October 31, 2013, 12:03:48 AM
Then... at least I didn't bet on labcoin Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
October 31, 2013, 12:00:39 AM
And what if asicminer decides to quit the race?
full member
Activity: 146
Merit: 100
October 30, 2013, 11:48:34 PM
I'm sure he has done the maths, but I wonder if 28 nm was excluded because he couldn't attract the talent? Why did 3 other startups choose 28 nm? Are they all wrong and FC is right?

 
 I think you are right...   (even bitfury had the right approach imho..)  When you look at the increased performance of .28 and the huge NRE cost vs the cost of actual chip production, and the cost of per-chip cooling systems with fans and what-not..   
 
   It makes a lot of sense.   If 40nm gives him access to foundry production faster than 28nm, and he can deploy and mine with immersion cooling, densely packing boards that don't require any fancy fans/heat-pipes/etc..    He can mine and wait for all the other manufacturers to bleed to death when they can't afford a 2nd wafer run and 28nm sales dry up.

He can sell blades with decent hashrates, and fairly densely populated boards that can still be stacked and air or immersion cooled cheaper than a 4U Enclosure thats mostly cooling with 2-4 chips.

 tl;dr; -   Sometimes it's not the fastest horse that wins but the smartest that pacesthemselves over the long term.   
 
  I'm panic buying while it's cheap... because when bitcoin is $400+, I can still count on divs, even if I cant afford shares.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1026
October 30, 2013, 08:10:30 PM
Doesn't it have a much higher NRE?

Yes. Ken from ActM mentioned NRE costs of $1m for the structured ASIC from eASIC (which is like "half FPGA - half ASIC" and thus much cheaper), CoinTerra needs to raise $5m for their full custom 28nm ASIC, if I'm not mistaken..

If the NRE costs listed in the report are indeed for the 40 nm line, then it's only $210,119.50.
hero member
Activity: 630
Merit: 500
Bitgoblin
October 30, 2013, 06:25:48 PM
I'm sure he has done the maths, but I wonder if 28 nm was excluded because he couldn't attract the talent? Why did 3 other startups choose 28 nm? Are they all wrong and FC is right?
Doesn't it have a much higher NRE?
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
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October 30, 2013, 05:35:42 PM
Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

I second Rival's statement. Those chips will probably be super cheap to produce. And what may needs to be repeated: compare BitFury's 55 nm chips to KnCMiner's 28 nm. When it comes down to efficiency, BF still wins, so I have high hopes in AM.

And consider the NRE for 28nm vs 55nm or 40nm. Given the useful life of the equipment, there is no point in investing in the latest node process when the cost of electricity is offset by a huge margin by the savings on the NRE.

I'm sure FC has done the math.

I'm panic holding Grin


I'm sure he has done the maths, but I wonder if 28 nm was excluded because he couldn't attract the talent? Why did 3 other startups choose 28 nm? Are they all wrong and FC is right?
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 501
October 30, 2013, 04:11:14 PM
Keeping your cards close to your chest may be the best strategy at this point. FC has stated again and again and again that the gen2 stuff is on the way. We will all wake up one day in the near future to an announcement that gen2 is ready for delivery to distributors, and it really will be exponential.

Except gen 2 was stillborn at the lab. It's gen 3 that we place our hopes in.
KS
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
October 30, 2013, 03:21:09 AM
Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

I second Rival's statement. Those chips will probably be super cheap to produce. And what may needs to be repeated: compare BitFury's 55 nm chips to KnCMiner's 28 nm. When it comes down to efficiency, BF still wins, so I have high hopes in AM.

And consider the NRE for 28nm vs 55nm or 40nm. Given the useful life of the equipment, there is no point in investing in the latest node process when the cost of electricity is offset by a huge margin by the savings on the NRE.

I'm sure FC has done the math.

I'm panic holding Grin

legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1006
First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
October 29, 2013, 11:08:02 PM
After this crazyness shakes out the only survivors will be cheap producers of gear.  If AM cost advantage is true then they are well positioned to keep selling for many years not just for now.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1026
October 29, 2013, 10:40:21 PM
Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

I second Rival's statement. Those chips will probably be super cheap to produce. And what may needs to be repeated: compare BitFury's 55 nm chips to KnCMiner's 28 nm. When it comes down to efficiency, BF still wins, so I have high hopes in AM.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
October 29, 2013, 10:08:34 PM
That may be true, but to paraphrase FC:

"AM production cost is invincible".

He may be able to assassinate his competition by providing similar hash at a fraction of the cost. This would not be the first time.

Imagine the chagrin of BFL if next week FC offered 600 Gh/s delivered the next day for $500.00. The gnashing of teeth from every other producer would be... loud.

legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
October 29, 2013, 08:26:05 PM
Keeping your cards close to your chest may be the best strategy at this point. FC has stated again and again and again that the gen2 stuff is on the way. We will all wake up one day in the near future to an announcement that gen2 is ready for delivery to distributors, and it really will be exponential.

FC has a strong history under-promising  and over-delivering. I expect we will be blown away when out of the blue 50 Gh/s usb miners and 2 Th/s blades hit the market or something ridiculous like that. Then people will be scrambling for shares, and the majority opinion will be "How could anyone not have expected this?"

FC has an advantage over other ASIC manufacturers in that he can fund new generations of product out of existing earnings, so he doesn't need to publicize what he is doing. The others are all going down the pre-order route, which means they have to reveal a bit more about their plans.

The difference this time is that other companies will probably have similar product out by the time AM do. Cointerra have a 2TH device coming; HashFast a 1.2TH one. They have an advantage in that they have in-house chip design experts who have commercial experience working at 28nm process sizes. I think FC said a while ago he didn't expect to be able to find such people in China.

Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
October 29, 2013, 08:12:41 PM
Keeping your cards close to your chest may be the best strategy at this point. FC has stated again and again and again that the gen2 stuff is on the way. We will all wake up one day in the near future to an announcement that gen2 is ready for delivery to distributors, and it really will be exponential.

FC has a strong history under-promising  and over-delivering. I expect we will be blown away when out of the blue 50 Gh/s usb miners and 2 Th/s blades hit the market or something ridiculous like that. Then people will be scrambling for shares, and the majority opinion will be "How could anyone not have expected this?"
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
October 29, 2013, 05:13:03 PM
the fees need to pick up at at a good 10% year then people won't depend on newly minted coins for income. that's all.
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