OMG! Thief! They're takin' our jerbs!!! err.. bitcoins!
Sarcastic fear aside, it struck me again how smoothly this has gone. Here we have 100 virtual strangers who've made a promise in an anonymous forum to make a purchase worth $200-$4000+, a promise that 95% of have followed through and immediately paid up. I don't know how many of you have tried this before in other group buy contexts, but that just does not happen.
We're also collectively trusting two other virtual strangers with the equivalent of $100,000. Next, we're trusting a tiny, relatively unproven company to deliver us an in-development product that nobody outside that company has ever seen function. We do this knowing that even if things go incredibly smoothly with manufacture/delivery, and the difficulty ramp is better than expected, none of us will see our ROI for at least 6 months, likely longer.
Pundits on either side of the 'will bitcoin last' argument need look no further.
We are far from out of the woods, but I to am blown away by how well things seem to have gone so far. I never would have guessed that this high a percentage of participant paid up this quickly. And it looks from what we can tell from my vantage point like Arklan and JohnK have been performing well.
Looks like the biggest risk point now is Friedcat coming trough, but he seems like the kind of person who gets things done.
Another big risk point is caprice on the part of the authorities when it comes to shipping. Bitcoin is, I'm sure, ever more on people's radar, and that likely includes customs agents.
Lastly, there will be a point (I guess) where Arklan has box with $100,000 worth of equipment under his control. Someone elses' $100k. He could walk off with it at that point. I very much doubt it, particularly as it is a pretty blatant and physical world crime, but at a systems level that is a weak point. He could always say 'I was robbed.' In fact, he could be robbed for that matter.
I've not seen and 'bonding' show up yet, but I'm guessing that someone who had done a couple of these deals successfully could obtain a $100k bond for a reasonable price if/when some person or organization specializing in bonding in Bitcoin-land evolves. Or $1M. More and more I'll be looking for such a thing as bonding to cover the system level loose ends in deals like this.