[Aug 2022] Mempool empty! Use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! - page 19.

stompix

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 08, 2024, 10:55:45 AM

I do not think on chain fees under 10 sats will happen very much anymore.

There is simply no demand to keep them afloat once all the consolidation for 6 months of pain and the ordinals are gone!
Look right now at the blocks, it's 1/3 consolidations and 1/3 ordinals, actual demand for transactions outside those two is minimal, and consolidations can't keep it up since you need first the tx splitting the inputs first!

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 08, 2024, 10:55:45 AM

as there are unstoppable methods large farms can do to make their profits higher.
you can not stop a 30% pool from down clocking and slowing blocks to clog the mempool then once the mempool is clogged bump hash up to grab high fee blocks...

And you can't force people to make transactions either!
It's pretty simple, they can reduce the chain capacity to 10blocks a day, if there is no demand for space as ordinals hype dies and most action happens anyhow on CEX and even off blockchain completely like ETFs there is nobody who will pay you three times the fees. Of course here I ignore the misconfigured bots that pay even now 450sat/vb.

Think of it as a toll tax, once you make it worth 10 gallons of gas people will just drive around it!

Quote from: bitmover on March 08, 2024, 11:51:03 AM

We just saw 8 sat vB about 2 weeks ago.

We're in a middle of a bullrun and we're still at 12sat/vb, I don't see where any extra traffic going to come from, I think feebudy is going to need counselling soon.

AB de Royse777

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Quote from: LoyceV on March 08, 2024, 03:10:46 AM

Quote

Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

Was it wrong, or did something unexpected happen? Like: mempool suddenly grows, or the block time is far from 10 minutes?

I don't know what sorts of unexpected things can happen. Usually when the mempool is congested too much, fees require too high then sometimes it gives wrong calculation for vMB.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 08, 2024, 10:55:45 AM

I do not think on chain fees under 10 sats will happen very much anymore.

This 2024 1/2 ing will be more like a 35-40% ing. not a 1/2 ing.

as there are unstoppable methods large farms can do to make their profits higher.

you can not stop a 30% pool from down clocking and slowing blocks to clog the mempool then once the mempool is clogged bump hash up to grab high fee blocks... We should see real evidence of this happening after this 1/2 ing

We just saw 8 sat vB about 2 weeks ago.

I do not think miner will refuse low fee rate transactions and mine empty blocks.
If some pools decide to do so, there will always be pools That will clear the mempool and mine full blocks, no matter the fee rate.

For now, there are 130000 transactions in the mempool. But that is quite unusual and ordinals and the bull market won't last forever..

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Quote from: Cricktor on March 08, 2024, 10:36:40 AM

Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 09:34:08 AM

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. ...

In the bear market, ordinals will disappear, ...

Fees would probably be lower in a bear market if there wasn't this blockchain spamming. Unfortunately I'm not so confident that ordinals spam will disappear with a bear market. Blockchain spammers are likely to produce a lot of noise for nothing (translate it to overly filled mempools) to rip off gullible victims.

I got pessimistic as long as this massive blockchain spam isn't prevented by technical and/or protocol means. Some bubbles will burst over time, but spammers are creative as long as there's enough "loose" money to collect.

I do not think on chain fees under 10 sats will happen very much anymore.

This 2024 1/2 ing will be more like a 35-40% ing. not a 1/2 ing.

as there are unstoppable methods large farms can do to make their profits higher.

you can not stop a 30% pool from down clocking and slowing blocks to clog the mempool then once the mempool is clogged bump hash up to grab high fee blocks... We should see real evidence of this happening after this 1/2 ing

Cricktor

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Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 09:34:08 AM

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. ...

In the bear market, ordinals will disappear, ...

Fees would probably be lower in a bear market if there wasn't this blockchain spamming. Unfortunately I'm not so confident that ordinals spam will disappear with a bear market. Blockchain spammers are likely to produce a lot of noise for nothing (translate it to overly filled mempools) to rip off gullible victims.

I got pessimistic as long as this massive blockchain spam isn't prevented by technical and/or protocol means. Some bubbles will burst over time, but spammers are creative as long as there's enough "loose" money to collect.

stompix

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Quote from: LoyceV on March 08, 2024, 03:10:46 AM

Quote from: AB de Royse777 on March 07, 2024, 04:00:27 PM

Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

Was it wrong, or did something unexpected happen? Like: mempool suddenly grows, or the block time is far from 10 minutes?

For a moment I thought Royse hit exactly the one bump yesterday like I did, we had a few hours of next blocks not being below 30sat/b but his message is a few hours older that that, it could be the March 5h bump, 6AM would have shown you a few blocks over 60sat adn your tx at 30 being buried under 25 blocks, but at 10AM you could get confirmation for the same 30sat/b.

Quote from: LoyceV on March 08, 2024, 03:10:46 AM

How cool is this:
Image loading...

Late February, I don't remember the date, but at least 24th:

LoyceV

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on March 07, 2024, 04:00:27 PM

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2h,weight

The site, do they still provide correct data?

It's correct, although I prefer the 24h view. But you have to realize what you're looking at: you're looking at the past, which you use to predict the future.

Quote

Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

Was it wrong, or did something unexpected happen? Like: mempool suddenly grows, or the block time is far from 10 minutes?

How cool is this:
Image loading...

Those consolidations are transactions made in the past 1-2 weeks, that are now very likely to be confirmed.

philipma1957

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on March 07, 2024, 04:00:27 PM

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2h,weight

The site, do they still provide correct data? Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

I have not found them to be wrong but shifts can happen in under 10 minutes. 3 quick blocks and you look likely over paid.

or 2 slow blocks and it looks like you underpaid.

AB de Royse777

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https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2h,weight

The site, do they still provide correct data? Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

dkbit98

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Quote from: LoyceV on March 07, 2024, 04:04:52 AM

Watching Mempool.space's Mempool Goggles is mesmerizing

Goggles are really cool and I really like Mempool.space website for checking bitcoin fees, they are accurate with predictions most of the times.
I don't know if you noticed goggles button with many filters, you can only pick coinjoins, taproot, consolidation, etc.

Recently there was a new alternative tool released called NextBlock Fee Estimator, but it's still basic for now:
https://nextblock.is/

LoyceV

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Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 11:11:42 AM

Fees are getting lower, I made a 15 sat VB tx today

I did 14

And at the moment that should still be possible.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 07, 2024, 10:29:36 AM

why do you say the bear comes in 2024 or 2025

it should come in 2026

fees will suck for the next 18-20 months

Nobody knows. It should, but what if we have some new war around the globe?
What if a new virus comes in? What if binance fails like FTX?

Nobody knows... all this optimism about BTC price and cycles makes me affraid some times, especially in bull markets. I just made a small sell today...

Anyway, we are a bit off topic here. Sorry LoyceV

Fees are getting lower, I made a 15 sat VB tx today

LoyceV

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 07, 2024, 10:29:36 AM

Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 09:34:08 AM

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. And the bear market will come in the next months/year, we all should be prepared for it.

why do you say the bear comes in 2024 or 2025

it should come in 2026

Based on historic data, I don't expect a bear market within the first year (up to 18 months) after the halving. But after the last halving I felt like: "it is too round, it needs to be pointy" (kuddos if you know the quote), so what do I know. If too many people expect something, it's going to influence the outcome anyway.

Quote

fees will suck for the next 18-20 months

At the moment, it's "not great, not terrible" (again: kuddos if you know the quote). But I don't feel like consolidating my 63 uncompressed Legacy inputs yet.

philipma1957

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Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 09:34:08 AM

Quote from: LoyceV on March 07, 2024, 04:04:52 AM

All in all, the last chance for cheap consolidations was in Oktober last year. Currently, it costs about 10 times more. The spam attack got less, but as shown above, people still waste massive amounts of money on wasting block space. Add the bull run and it's very hard to predict how fees will develop in the future.

Nobody can predict when will the fees get lower. This is a fact, as the price volatility is very high now.

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. And the bear market will come in the next months/year, we all should be prepared for it.

In the bear market, ordinals will disappear, exchanges will have lower volume (which means less people sending coins), etc...

I will save my consolidations for the bear market. I will make only transactions that I really need now.

why do you say the bear comes in 2024 or 2025

it should come in 2026

fees will suck for the next 18-20 months

bitmover

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Quote from: LoyceV on March 07, 2024, 04:04:52 AM

All in all, the last chance for cheap consolidations was in Oktober last year. Currently, it costs about 10 times more. The spam attack got less, but as shown above, people still waste massive amounts of money on wasting block space. Add the bull run and it's very hard to predict how fees will develop in the future.

Nobody can predict when will the fees get lower. This is a fact, as the price volatility is very high now.

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. And the bear market will come in the next months/year, we all should be prepared for it.

In the bear market, ordinals will disappear, exchanges will have lower volume (which means less people sending coins), etc...

I will save my consolidations for the bear market. I will make only transactions that I really need now.

LoyceV

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Watching Mempool.space's Mempool Goggles is mesmerizing:
Image loading...

On the live site, the rectangles move all the time.

In this case, the biggest transaction is this one: someone pays $800 to spam 80,000 vbytes.
The highlighted rectangles are consolidations. This one (I don't think it shows in the screenshot above) pays $850 to consolidate 887 inputs into one. According to Walletexplorer, it belongs to Kraken.

Johoe's 2 week overview shows a build up of 12 sat/vbyte transactions. I think those are planned consolidations:
Image loading...

All in all, the last chance for cheap consolidations was in Oktober last year. Currently, it costs about 10 times more. The spam attack got less, but as shown above, people still waste massive amounts of money on wasting block space. Add the bull run and it's very hard to predict how fees will develop in the future.

LoyceV

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Quote from: NotATether on February 29, 2024, 01:54:59 AM

Bitcoin Core by default only keeps your transaction in its mempool for 336 hours (14 days) before kicking it out:

Quote

-mempoolexpiry=
Do not keep transactions in the mempool longer than hours (default:
336)

But I'm sure you already knew that.

I knew that for other transactions, but I meant a transaction made by my own wallet in Bitcoin Core. Did that change? I remember (years ago) I had an unconfirmed zero-fee transaction for months, until I double spent it. I don't think it ever stopped broadcasting it.

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Quote from: LoyceV on February 29, 2024, 01:47:16 AM

Quote

If someone is owning a too heavy wallet to move it the worst that can happen is that the transactions get canceled after 14 days! Roll Eyes

Transactions don't "get canceled". Once broadcasted, each node can do whatever they want with it. Some will drop it, and your own wallet may drop it (depending on it's default, Bitcoin Core for instance keeps it). But some nodes may keep your transaction forever, which means as long as all the inputs are valid, it can eventually get confirmed.

Bitcoin Core by default only keeps your transaction in its mempool for 336 hours (14 days) before kicking it out:

Quote

-mempoolexpiry=
Do not keep transactions in the mempool longer than hours (default:
336)

But I'm sure you already knew that.

The chance that you'll find a node with a custom -mempoolexpiry is very low. But that's a good thing actually, because the sooner your low-fee transaction gets evicted, the sooner you can use the inputs to create a better transaction.

LoyceV

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Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 02:22:37 PM

Anyway it worth to give it a try !

You'd be wasting your time.

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 08:06:56 PM

I don't think so as the transaction would be mainly ignored.. and at the worst as the TXs will still remain unconfirmed you could just spend it again when you want!

Spending at least one of the inputs is the only way to make sure your older transaction becomes invalid.

Let's stop giving incorrect advice in my thread. Miners don't fall for the "trick" to apply CPFP on a large low-fee transaction if the effective fee is low. There's no point trying.

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Quote from: Cricktor on February 28, 2024, 05:49:13 PM

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 02:22:37 PM

Anyway it worth to give it a try !

If someone is owning a too heavy wallet to move it the worst that can happen is that the transactions get canceled after 14 days! Roll Eyes

No, if you insist in what you proposed, you're simply wasting some coins that could've been better invested in a more successful fee level for just one transaction only. A CPFP chain, smallest be just two transactions as you suggested, will always be more expensive than a single transaction with proper fees.

If someone owns a too heavy wallet he'd be smart enough to pay a fee level that has at least a reasonable chance to be taken by a miner. There's no guarantee a transaction gets purged after 14 days. I could've configured my own node to use a mempool size of 3GB and a transaction keep period of 12 months in my mempool. Dooh!

I don't think so as the transaction would be mainly ignored.. and at the worst as the TXs will still remain unconfirmed you could just spend it again when you want!

Topic: [Aug 2022] Mempool empty! Use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! - page 19. (Read 88507 times)