[Aug 2022] Mempool empty! Use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! - page 19.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: LoyceV on March 08, 2024, 03:10:46 AM

Quote from: AB de Royse777 on March 07, 2024, 04:00:27 PM

Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

Was it wrong, or did something unexpected happen? Like: mempool suddenly grows, or the block time is far from 10 minutes?

For a moment I thought Royse hit exactly the one bump yesterday like I did, we had a few hours of next blocks not being below 30sat/b but his message is a few hours older that that, it could be the March 5h bump, 6AM would have shown you a few blocks over 60sat adn your tx at 30 being buried under 25 blocks, but at 10AM you could get confirmation for the same 30sat/b.

Quote from: LoyceV on March 08, 2024, 03:10:46 AM

How cool is this:
Image loading...

Late February, I don't remember the date, but at least 24th:

LoyceV

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Quote from: AB de Royse777 on March 07, 2024, 04:00:27 PM

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2h,weight

The site, do they still provide correct data?

It's correct, although I prefer the 24h view. But you have to realize what you're looking at: you're looking at the past, which you use to predict the future.

Quote

Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

Was it wrong, or did something unexpected happen? Like: mempool suddenly grows, or the block time is far from 10 minutes?

How cool is this:
Image loading...

Those consolidations are transactions made in the past 1-2 weeks, that are now very likely to be confirmed.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: AB de Royse777 on March 07, 2024, 04:00:27 PM

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2h,weight

The site, do they still provide correct data? Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

I have not found them to be wrong but shifts can happen in under 10 minutes. 3 quick blocks and you look likely over paid.

or 2 slow blocks and it looks like you underpaid.

AB de Royse777

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Hire Bitcointalk Camp. Manager @ r7promotions.com

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2h,weight

The site, do they still provide correct data? Sometimes I find their graph gives wrong information and then I had to bump the tx or find out I paid too much fees.

dkbit98

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Quote from: LoyceV on March 07, 2024, 04:04:52 AM

Watching Mempool.space's Mempool Goggles is mesmerizing

Goggles are really cool and I really like Mempool.space website for checking bitcoin fees, they are accurate with predictions most of the times.
I don't know if you noticed goggles button with many filters, you can only pick coinjoins, taproot, consolidation, etc.

Recently there was a new alternative tool released called NextBlock Fee Estimator, but it's still basic for now:
https://nextblock.is/

LoyceV

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Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021

Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 11:11:42 AM

Fees are getting lower, I made a 15 sat VB tx today

I did 14

And at the moment that should still be possible.

bitmover

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bitcoindata.science

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 07, 2024, 10:29:36 AM

why do you say the bear comes in 2024 or 2025

it should come in 2026

fees will suck for the next 18-20 months

Nobody knows. It should, but what if we have some new war around the globe?
What if a new virus comes in? What if binance fails like FTX?

Nobody knows... all this optimism about BTC price and cycles makes me affraid some times, especially in bull markets. I just made a small sell today...

Anyway, we are a bit off topic here. Sorry LoyceV

Fees are getting lower, I made a 15 sat VB tx today

LoyceV

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 07, 2024, 10:29:36 AM

Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 09:34:08 AM

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. And the bear market will come in the next months/year, we all should be prepared for it.

why do you say the bear comes in 2024 or 2025

it should come in 2026

Based on historic data, I don't expect a bear market within the first year (up to 18 months) after the halving. But after the last halving I felt like: "it is too round, it needs to be pointy" (kuddos if you know the quote), so what do I know. If too many people expect something, it's going to influence the outcome anyway.

Quote

fees will suck for the next 18-20 months

At the moment, it's "not great, not terrible" (again: kuddos if you know the quote). But I don't feel like consolidating my 63 uncompressed Legacy inputs yet.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: bitmover on March 07, 2024, 09:34:08 AM

Quote from: LoyceV on March 07, 2024, 04:04:52 AM

All in all, the last chance for cheap consolidations was in Oktober last year. Currently, it costs about 10 times more. The spam attack got less, but as shown above, people still waste massive amounts of money on wasting block space. Add the bull run and it's very hard to predict how fees will develop in the future.

Nobody can predict when will the fees get lower. This is a fact, as the price volatility is very high now.

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. And the bear market will come in the next months/year, we all should be prepared for it.

In the bear market, ordinals will disappear, exchanges will have lower volume (which means less people sending coins), etc...

I will save my consolidations for the bear market. I will make only transactions that I really need now.

why do you say the bear comes in 2024 or 2025

it should come in 2026

fees will suck for the next 18-20 months

bitmover

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bitcoindata.science

Quote from: LoyceV on March 07, 2024, 04:04:52 AM

All in all, the last chance for cheap consolidations was in Oktober last year. Currently, it costs about 10 times more. The spam attack got less, but as shown above, people still waste massive amounts of money on wasting block space. Add the bull run and it's very hard to predict how fees will develop in the future.

Nobody can predict when will the fees get lower. This is a fact, as the price volatility is very high now.

But as soon as the bear market comes, the fees will most likely get lower again. And the bear market will come in the next months/year, we all should be prepared for it.

In the bear market, ordinals will disappear, exchanges will have lower volume (which means less people sending coins), etc...

I will save my consolidations for the bear market. I will make only transactions that I really need now.

LoyceV

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Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021

Watching Mempool.space's Mempool Goggles is mesmerizing:
Image loading...

On the live site, the rectangles move all the time.

In this case, the biggest transaction is this one: someone pays $800 to spam 80,000 vbytes.
The highlighted rectangles are consolidations. This one (I don't think it shows in the screenshot above) pays $850 to consolidate 887 inputs into one. According to Walletexplorer, it belongs to Kraken.

Johoe's 2 week overview shows a build up of 12 sat/vbyte transactions. I think those are planned consolidations:
Image loading...

All in all, the last chance for cheap consolidations was in Oktober last year. Currently, it costs about 10 times more. The spam attack got less, but as shown above, people still waste massive amounts of money on wasting block space. Add the bull run and it's very hard to predict how fees will develop in the future.

LoyceV

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Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021

Quote from: NotATether on February 29, 2024, 01:54:59 AM

Bitcoin Core by default only keeps your transaction in its mempool for 336 hours (14 days) before kicking it out:

Quote

-mempoolexpiry=
Do not keep transactions in the mempool longer than hours (default:
336)

But I'm sure you already knew that.

I knew that for other transactions, but I meant a transaction made by my own wallet in Bitcoin Core. Did that change? I remember (years ago) I had an unconfirmed zero-fee transaction for months, until I double spent it. I don't think it ever stopped broadcasting it.

NotATether

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bitcoincleanup.com / bitmixlist.org

Quote from: LoyceV on February 29, 2024, 01:47:16 AM

Quote

If someone is owning a too heavy wallet to move it the worst that can happen is that the transactions get canceled after 14 days! Roll Eyes

Transactions don't "get canceled". Once broadcasted, each node can do whatever they want with it. Some will drop it, and your own wallet may drop it (depending on it's default, Bitcoin Core for instance keeps it). But some nodes may keep your transaction forever, which means as long as all the inputs are valid, it can eventually get confirmed.

Bitcoin Core by default only keeps your transaction in its mempool for 336 hours (14 days) before kicking it out:

Quote

-mempoolexpiry=
Do not keep transactions in the mempool longer than hours (default:
336)

But I'm sure you already knew that.

The chance that you'll find a node with a custom -mempoolexpiry is very low. But that's a good thing actually, because the sooner your low-fee transaction gets evicted, the sooner you can use the inputs to create a better transaction.

LoyceV

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Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 02:22:37 PM

Anyway it worth to give it a try !

You'd be wasting your time.

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 08:06:56 PM

I don't think so as the transaction would be mainly ignored.. and at the worst as the TXs will still remain unconfirmed you could just spend it again when you want!

Spending at least one of the inputs is the only way to make sure your older transaction becomes invalid.

Let's stop giving incorrect advice in my thread. Miners don't fall for the "trick" to apply CPFP on a large low-fee transaction if the effective fee is low. There's no point trying.

Danydee

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Quote from: Cricktor on February 28, 2024, 05:49:13 PM

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 02:22:37 PM

Anyway it worth to give it a try !

If someone is owning a too heavy wallet to move it the worst that can happen is that the transactions get canceled after 14 days! Roll Eyes

No, if you insist in what you proposed, you're simply wasting some coins that could've been better invested in a more successful fee level for just one transaction only. A CPFP chain, smallest be just two transactions as you suggested, will always be more expensive than a single transaction with proper fees.

If someone owns a too heavy wallet he'd be smart enough to pay a fee level that has at least a reasonable chance to be taken by a miner. There's no guarantee a transaction gets purged after 14 days. I could've configured my own node to use a mempool size of 3GB and a transaction keep period of 12 months in my mempool. Dooh!

I don't think so as the transaction would be mainly ignored.. and at the worst as the TXs will still remain unconfirmed you could just spend it again when you want!

Cricktor

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Crypto Swap Exchange

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 02:22:37 PM

Anyway it worth to give it a try !

If someone is owning a too heavy wallet to move it the worst that can happen is that the transactions get canceled after 14 days! Roll Eyes

No, if you insist in what you proposed, you're simply wasting some coins that could've been better invested in a more successful fee level for just one transaction only. A CPFP chain, smallest be just two transactions as you suggested, will always be more expensive than a single transaction with proper fees.

If someone owns a too heavy wallet he'd be smart enough to pay a fee level that has at least a reasonable chance to be taken by a miner. There's no guarantee a transaction gets purged after 14 days. I could've configured my own node to use a mempool size of 3GB and a transaction keep period of 12 months in my mempool. Dooh!

Danydee

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Quote from: LoyceV on February 28, 2024, 01:00:00 PM

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 12:41:48 PM

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on February 28, 2024, 12:00:19 PM

Take note that miners would prioritize CPFP transactions based on their effective fee rate, not based on the fee rate used for the child.

Maybe, but I don't think that it will be always the case!

What hosseinimr93 says is correct. If a miner would be dumb enough to to do what you suggested, it would be massively abused. Miners prioritize profit maximization, which means they'll start with the highest number of sats per vbyte (total transaction "up chain" including parents) an go down from there.

Anyway it worth to give it a try !

If someone is owning a too heavy wallet to move it the worst that can happen is that the transactions get canceled after 14 days! Roll Eyes

un_rank

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- Jay -

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 12:41:48 PM

My wondering was about that case where ther'll be too much UXTOs that makes the fees too huge !! Then the UXTO to the scond transaction will count as single input, so the fees would not be too high even if settling at maximum!

Sending multiple UTXOs in different transactions and including outputs of one into the next transaction does not reduce the fees you'll pay. It will still be a cumulative fee based on the total transaction size.
If parent transaction used a very low fee, the child tx will use a much higher fee to supplement it and make it profitable for the miner.

If you have too much UTXOs wait for a time when the feerate I know and consolidate, or use coin control and only spend few UTXOs which has majority of the amount in your wallet.

- Jay -

LoyceV

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Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 12:41:48 PM

Quote from: hosseinimr93 on February 28, 2024, 12:00:19 PM

Take note that miners would prioritize CPFP transactions based on their effective fee rate, not based on the fee rate used for the child.

Maybe, but I don't think that it will be always the case!

What hosseinimr93 says is correct. If a miner would be dumb enough to to do what you suggested, it would be massively abused. Miners prioritize profit maximization, which means they'll start with the highest number of sats per vbyte (total transaction "up chain" including parents) an go down from there.

Danydee

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Quote from: hosseinimr93 on February 28, 2024, 12:00:19 PM

Quote from: Danydee on February 28, 2024, 11:49:07 AM

First transaction fees could be set as low as 1Sat/Byte ... the UXTO on the scond would be from the unconfirmed first Tx, so spending it with high fees is to accelerate and promote its confirmation, and its confirmation will entangle with it the confirmation of the first tx.. as the first is a parent transaction!

But in this way, you would have to pay more fee. It would be better to make a single transaction with high fee.

My wondering was about that case where ther'll be too much UXTOs that makes the fees too huge !! Then the UXTO to the scond transaction will count as single input, so the fees would not be too high even if settling at maximum!

Quote

Take note that miners would prioritize CPFP transactions based on their effective fee rate, not based on the fee rate used for the child.

Maybe, but I don't think that it will be always the case!

Topic: [Aug 2022] Mempool empty! Use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! - page 19. (Read 88277 times)