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Topic: Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 50. (Read 141540 times)

legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
May 20, 2013, 07:56:23 AM
Or maybe the old smt line is busy?

I don't think that there is an old SMT line.
I guess production was outsourced so far, that's common and doesn't make too much trouble.
So whats the problem with using the old outsourced smt line after 2 months of delays?

The production line being first priority, delivering second?
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
May 20, 2013, 07:54:52 AM
Or maybe the old smt line is busy?

I don't think that there is an old SMT line.
I guess production was outsourced so far, that's common and doesn't make too much trouble.
So whats the problem with using the old outsourced smt line after 2 months of delays?
I'm tired of these delays... I didn't have the time to listen to the interview, but if the transcript is correct, they basically announced another "few weeks" delay... That can't seriously be correct.
Also, they managed to explain the lack of replies to the tickets? Seriously? How?
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
May 20, 2013, 07:53:37 AM
Or maybe the old smt line is busy?

I don't think that there is an old SMT line.
I guess production was outsourced so far, that's common and doesn't make too much trouble.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
May 20, 2013, 07:50:33 AM
Or maybe the old smt line is busy?

In a competitive business where timing is crucial (ask any BFL customer), this would sound like very bad planning...
Busy doing something they want that smt line to do... Something that fits perfectly with the hashrate increase...
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
May 20, 2013, 07:46:35 AM

Alt coins don't pay and FPGAs are no longer worth it since ASICS.


It is no longer cost-effective to BUY FPGAs. Running them is still OK.

Even the most power inefficient FPGA (the BFL single) is still worth it to run. For me it still makes around 10x the electricity it uses and my electric rates are pretty high.

You may want to check into mining Terracoins. It seems to be going into a boom right now and you should get 2.4 times more than with btc. Apparently (just found all this out), fpga miners are all flocking to trc.

Terracoin difficulty adjusts very quickly, so it is unlikely that someone would be able to take advantage of this temporary "boom". Those who mine Terracoin because of the potential for high profitability are going to be disappointed when the difficulty adjusts up within minutes.
legendary
Activity: 1112
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2013, 07:46:24 AM
Or maybe the old smt line is busy?

In a competitive business where timing is crucial (ask any BFL customer), this would sound like very bad planning...
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
May 20, 2013, 07:42:23 AM
I would appreciate them outsourcing this step, as they already did in the past.

Building production can take time, make problems and deadlines are hardly met - even by professionals which do it all the time. And for this guys it's the first time, no offence.

I don't understand how they can't use the old setup, unless the installation of the new SMT line makes the whole area unusable.
Or maybe the old smt line is busy?

So the new smt line will be ready in a few weeks, and they plan to finish shipping batch 3 sometime next month... Something doesent add up...
legendary
Activity: 1112
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2013, 07:34:48 AM
I would appreciate them outsourcing this step, as they already did in the past.

Building production can take time, make problems and deadlines are hardly met - even by professionals which do it all the time. And for this guys it's the first time, no offence.

I don't understand how they can't use the old setup, unless the installation of the new SMT line makes the whole area unusable.
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
May 20, 2013, 07:29:55 AM
5:10 "our new SMT line production bla bla in a few weeks from now"

That's really really bad news.
I would appreciate them outsourcing this step, as they already did in the past.

Building production can take time, make problems and deadlines are hardly met - even by professionals which do it all the time. And for this guys it's the first time, no offence.
legendary
Activity: 1112
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2013, 06:59:00 AM
any ideas about the rest of Q&A - maybe parts 2 & 3?

I did not make the video or upload it, I just searched for it.

If you look at the digitalmagus7 history, he posted a whole bunch of Bitcoin 2013 video, perhaps more is to follow.

https://www.youtube.com/user/digitalmagus7/videos

As for the info in the video, I have a hard time transcribing it but

4:12 "We are just going to sell chips" (then at least they don't have to deal with customers, shipping, customs)

4:40 "A slight sabotage issue" (about the units that arrived broken, more at 9:08)

5:10 "And after we double check our new SMT line production bla bla in a few weeks from now, ship them out in pockets"

6:20 "Q: Are you mining with batch #2 or not mining? We are not mining"

So no explanation why they missed batch #2 shipping date, no explanation why some units arrived 'used'. No fixed shipping date for batch #2, except for "in a few weeks"

So... June?
newbie
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
May 20, 2013, 06:02:21 AM
OK, back to topic please

has anybody talked to Yifu at the Bitcoin 2013 conference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaZPnHCHnNQ

Still waiting for news on shipping...

thanks for the link / video.

any ideas about the rest of Q&A - maybe parts 2 & 3?
legendary
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
May 20, 2013, 05:11:21 AM
OK, back to topic please

has anybody talked to Yifu at the Bitcoin 2013 conference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaZPnHCHnNQ

Still waiting for news on shipping...
Anyone have or can make shorthand report of this video's? Too much talker echo, difficult to understand for foreign listener.

+1. report please  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
Etherscan.io
May 20, 2013, 05:06:34 AM
OK, back to topic please

has anybody talked to Yifu at the Bitcoin 2013 conference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaZPnHCHnNQ

Still waiting for news on shipping...

That was a good video, thanks for posting the link (or whoever the original author) was. Cleared up a lot of stuff (about the reason for them not answering tickets and all) and Yifu does seem like a real decent guy.

Hopefully this means we should have our units within the next few weeks  Cheesy


hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2013, 04:25:19 AM
OK, back to topic please

has anybody talked to Yifu at the Bitcoin 2013 conference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaZPnHCHnNQ

Still waiting for news on shipping...
Anyone have or can make shorthand report of this video's? Too much talker echo, difficult to understand for foreign listener.
legendary
Activity: 1112
Merit: 1000
May 20, 2013, 04:11:50 AM
OK, back to topic please

has anybody talked to Yifu at the Bitcoin 2013 conference?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaZPnHCHnNQ

Still waiting for news on shipping...
member
Activity: 95
Merit: 10
May 20, 2013, 03:48:49 AM

Alt coins don't pay and FPGAs are no longer worth it since ASICS.


It is no longer cost-effective to BUY FPGAs. Running them is still OK.

Even the most power inefficient FPGA (the BFL single) is still worth it to run. For me it still makes around 10x the electricity it uses and my electric rates are pretty high.

You may want to check into mining Terracoins. It seems to be going into a boom right now and you should get 2.4 times more than with btc. Apparently (just found all this out), fpga miners are all flocking to trc.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
May 20, 2013, 01:28:56 AM
I believe this would be a better graph to look at. The purple line is the 3-day estimate. For the period I brought up (May 13-16) it is a lot more coherent. The slow decline bet. May 14 and May 19 could be the FPGAs being turned off. Pools like BTC Guild are kicking them all out at this point because they cannot use the stratum servers and they want to switch off their getwork servers (old stuff).
[ ... ]
Even a three day estimate is too short. The 14 day window estimate is more useful.
Thing is, that to create such massive changes in the network you need a large number of people in different timezones to act at exactly the same time. That drop looks to be about 10 Thps - it's more likely that this drop is due at least in part to variance, rather than 12500 800Mhps FPGAs being switched off.
What you say might be possible, but it is by no means even close to being provable.
I do not understand why three days is not enough to account for the variance of block solving times.   It is 336 events no?   Some will be tight together pushing the implied HR higher but some will be further apart?  I could see it being skewed by 30 or 40 events but I am shocked that over 300 is not enough to predict. 


It's not that it won't be accurate, just that there's no confidence interval for it's use. It might be correct, or it might not. The 14 day estimate is closer to my own estimate, and my own estimate is provably a good fit for a time streched Poisson process (essentially a non-homogenous Poisson process transformed using a variable timescale so it becomes a Poisson process). It also allows confidence intervals.

The 3 day estimate is affected far more by variance than my own, and to me the estimate doesn't seem like it would be a good estimate for the mean. If I could access the data set I could find out for sure.

  So, the chart on bitcoincharts is useless?

Depends on what you're using it for. If you want to know the hashrate, then yes, useless. If you want to know how lucky the network has been recently, then it's probably a reasonable indicator.
full member
Activity: 215
Merit: 101
May 20, 2013, 01:13:01 AM

Alt coins don't pay and FPGAs are no longer worth it since ASICS.


It is no longer cost-effective to BUY FPGAs. Running them is still OK.

Even the most power inefficient FPGA (the BFL single) is still worth it to run. For me it still makes around 10x the electricity it uses and my electric rates are pretty high.
member
Activity: 95
Merit: 10
May 19, 2013, 11:52:19 PM
I believe this would be a better graph to look at. The purple line is the 3-day estimate. For the period I brought up (May 13-16) it is a lot more coherent. The slow decline bet. May 14 and May 19 could be the FPGAs being turned off. Pools like BTC Guild are kicking them all out at this point because they cannot use the stratum servers and they want to switch off their getwork servers (old stuff).

[ ... ]

Even a three day estimate is too short. The 14 day window estimate is more useful.

Thing is, that to create such massive changes in the network you need a large number of people in different timezones to act at exactly the same time. That drop looks to be about 10 Thps - it's more likely that this drop is due at least in part to variance, rather than 12500 800Mhps FPGAs being switched off.

What you say might be possible, but it is by no means even close to being provable.


It could be a combination of ASICs coming offline (Avalon mining with batch#2 before shipping them on the 13th), then online (people receiving them and turning them on) and all at the same time FPGAs leaving the pools. Long shot for an explanation but something seems the have been going on in that period.





People mining alt coins?


Alt coins don't pay and FPGAs are no longer worth it since ASICS.

Check this list of all available crypto currencies and the calculator below. Plug in some typical values for alt coins (scrypt) and you will see what I mean. Keep in mind that for scrypt the top miners are in the 1-4 MHash/sec:

http://dustcoin.com/mining

legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1020
Be A Digital Miner
May 19, 2013, 11:48:05 PM
I believe this would be a better graph to look at. The purple line is the 3-day estimate. For the period I brought up (May 13-16) it is a lot more coherent. The slow decline bet. May 14 and May 19 could be the FPGAs being turned off. Pools like BTC Guild are kicking them all out at this point because they cannot use the stratum servers and they want to switch off their getwork servers (old stuff).
[ ... ]
Even a three day estimate is too short. The 14 day window estimate is more useful.
Thing is, that to create such massive changes in the network you need a large number of people in different timezones to act at exactly the same time. That drop looks to be about 10 Thps - it's more likely that this drop is due at least in part to variance, rather than 12500 800Mhps FPGAs being switched off.
What you say might be possible, but it is by no means even close to being provable.
I do not understand why three days is not enough to account for the variance of block solving times.   It is 336 events no?   Some will be tight together pushing the implied HR higher but some will be further apart?  I could see it being skewed by 30 or 40 events but I am shocked that over 300 is not enough to predict.    So, the chart on bitcoincharts is useless?
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