Topic: Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 51. (Read 141540 times)

People mining alt coins?

Are you saying I'm not geek enough? I want satisfaction, sir!

organofcorti.blogspot.com is where I post most of my odds and ends. Unfortunately I don't have sufficient web-fu to make a website that would serve a real time network hashrate chart though.

Even a three day estimate is too short. The 14 day window estimate is more useful.

Thing is, that to create such massive changes in the network you need a large number of people in different timezones to act at exactly the same time. That drop looks to be about 10 Thps - it's more likely that this drop is due at least in part to variance, rather than 12500 800Mhps FPGAs being switched off.

What you say might be possible, but it is by no means even close to being provable.

Geek humor. Never mind any of that.  

Are you posting your graphs somewhere?

Can you explain how the above likelihood function would help? I'm not sure I follow.

Here's how I understand estimates of the network hashrate:

Firstly, if the network hashrate is unchanging then the number of blocks per unit time is Poisson distributed.

Any hash has the same chance of being sufficiently under target to solve a block, the number of hashes per block is geometrically distributed, with p = 1/target. Since p is extremely small we can approximate this quite closely using the exponential distribution. Assuming the hashrate doesn't change, then the amount of time between block solves is exponentially distributed, and thus the block solving process is a Poisson process.

However the block solved rate changes, sometimes significantly, between any two retargets. This makes the process a non-homogenous Poisson process.

So you can calculate the hashrate from the number of blocks per time, or the inverse of the amount time per block/s, and use confidence intervals based on whichever method you used (Poisson distribution for blocks per time, Erlang distribution for amount time per block/s).

My own method is to use a non-parametric smoothing spline. I then time stretch the data so that the smoothing spline is 12 blocks every two hours and optimize such that all of the actual two hourly hashrate are Poisson distributed random variables with a mean rate of 12.

Very simple. I've been looking here for the network hashrate without thinking much of it:

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin

Yeah.  I meant josh_nc.  I'm more interested in why he made his choices, vis-a-vie interpreting such random things as "the hockey stick" than I am a high finess resolution of which model is best.

I believe this would be a better graph to look at. The purple line is the 3-day estimate. For the period I brought up (May 13-16) it is a lot more coherent. The slow decline bet. May 14 and May 19 could be the FPGAs being turned off. Pools like BTC Guild are kicking them all out at this point because they cannot use the stratum servers and they want to switch off their getwork servers (old stuff).

Neither of them should be used. Did you quote the wrong person?

Is there any reason you chose the most extreme values in the red graph, when you also had the choice of some more moderate values in the green graph, when you were trying to understand what was happening?

Corrected above.

Mind you this can always be skewed by tweaking with localization functors and realified global structures... but I wouldn't advise this method as it is prone to cause too much bias from the mean deviation.  

I don't read mathjax or laTeX or whatever - mind rephrasing in something both I and SMF understand?

So, would you say the approach below would be a better way to determine the hash rate?
This of course takes into account the maximum likelihood. L() is in fact the likelihood function. I've always been terrible with statistical models but this one may give you a more coherent distribution than Poisson's which smells really fishy wink wink



 

OMG (mathematics)     

It's actually a 4 part series; the one I linked is part 2. Apparently no one could really understand it either.

My brain started hurting just reading the title on that thing.

You think that's abracadabra.. try this. http://www.kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~motizuki/Inter-universal%20Teichmuller%20Theory%20II.pdf

Apparently he could be Satoshi.

It all sounds like abracadabra to me...... 

Dammit! You caught me out. I was of course pulling all those words out of my butt