Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 52.

abracadabra

hero member

Activity: 956

Merit: 1001

Quote from: organofcorti on May 19, 2013, 05:29:30 PM

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

Now you're just throwing crazy words out there left and right! Do you realize how much time it would take someone to google all these words?

non-homogenous
Poisson processes
geometric distribution
Variance

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: josh_nc on May 19, 2013, 04:57:50 PM

[ ... ]
Yes, I see what you mean. There are several peaks and valleys in any given month if you look at it on a day-to-day. I wonder what causes them... Likely the FPGAs going on and off.

No. The problem is that we don't actually know what the hashrate is, we can only estimate it. There are various methods this can be done, but all of them are affected by "luck". You can estimate hashrate from the number of blocks solved in a given (constant) period of time, or from the amount of time it takes to solve a given number of blocks. Either way this result varies significantly - the 10 minute hashrate varies from 0 Thps to a few hundred 0 Thps. |There's no way to determine the actual hashrate from the chart you posted, unfortunately - it's just affect too much by "luck".

Quote from: josh_nc on May 19, 2013, 04:57:50 PM

If all you had were ASICs I'd imagine people would not be turning them off as much. So, as time goes by and more ASICs come online this variance should reduce significantly, wouldn't you agree?

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

josh_nc

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Quote from: organofcorti on May 19, 2013, 01:21:10 AM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 08:57:08 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 18, 2013, 08:08:48 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

~101 THash/sec down to ~76 THash/sec between May 13 and May 16. That's the ~25 THash/sec drop.

No, that's variance. The estimate you link to is affected by variance significantly. Try using the 14 day estimate on bitcoin.sipa.be. I also make an estimate for my own uses:

From both sources it's pretty obvious that a 25Ghps drop in three days is incorrect, or at least extremely unlikely.

Yes, I see what you mean. There are several peaks and valleys in any given month if you look at it on a day-to-day. I wonder what causes them... Likely the FPGAs going on and off. If all you had were ASICs I'd imagine people would not be turning them off as much. So, as time goes by and more ASICs come online this variance should reduce significantly, wouldn't you agree?

cosurgi

sr. member

Activity: 298

Merit: 250

Quote from: kaerf on May 11, 2013, 01:57:11 AM

Quote from: cosurgi on May 11, 2013, 01:41:59 AM

Quote from: Aseras on May 07, 2013, 06:04:06 PM

Yifu's speaking at bitcoin 2013 in a week. We could lay out the welcome mat for him...

When exactly?

sunday @1:30p

http://www.bitcoin2013.com/uploads/1/4/9/4/14946598/bitcoin_2013_schedule_updated_5-8-13.pdf

That's today!

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 08:57:08 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on May 18, 2013, 08:08:48 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

~101 THash/sec down to ~76 THash/sec between May 13 and May 16. That's the ~25 THash/sec drop.

No, that's variance. The estimate you link to is affected by variance significantly. Try using the 14 day estimate on bitcoin.sipa.be. I also make an estimate for my own uses:

From both sources it's pretty obvious that a 25Ghps drop in three days is incorrect, or at least extremely unlikely.

greaterninja

hero member

Activity: 924

Merit: 1000

Quote from: shmadz on May 18, 2013, 09:11:15 PM

@ Bowjob: sorry to hear of your problems. Without knowing the location and condition/details of your parents house it is difficult to know what your best course of action might be.

(my parents are in a similar position, with a large amount still owing on their property, and approaching retirement (and the fixed "income" that entails) luckily for us, their house has not dropped in value, (yet) and they are doing massive renovations to try to increase value before they sell and move into something more modest)

best of luck, and "may your avalons arrive soon and hash promptly"

if his parents paid 500k, maybe they should just walk away from the house...hate to say it but many people in north america buy houses they cannot afford. they live above their means.

shbtc

member

Activity: 60

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: pikeadz on May 17, 2013, 06:54:11 PM

Quote from: snaxion on May 17, 2013, 06:20:50 PM

If they did mine with them before shipping (which I doubt slightly), I don't see a blatant breach of contract. Those units will be leaving the network anyway. I think the month delay is more serious, which if you compare to BFL is almost laughable.

Anyway, good luck to us all batch2-ers! Hoping for the best.

BTW, is anyone else sweating this miners "being a money-transmitter" business? I have a pretty face and wouldn't fare well in the pen.

You're only a MSB if you transact more than $1,000 in a day. You can mine all you want in bitcoins. You can even convert $999 a day and you won't be a MSB. That is an amount most people should be able to live off of. Mining coins is not a transaction unless you were to receive the proceeds in dollars. Stay in bitcoin and you will be fine.

Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer and this is not legal advice. You can read the official version here though: http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/definitions/msb.html

If I'm wrong, I have an ugly face so perhaps I would do quite well in the pen.

I believe a "money transmitter" is different than a MSB. You can be a transmitter without being an MSB so you still have to follow the transmitter rules ... I think.

FinCEN’s regulations, as amended, define the term “money transmitter” to
include a person that provides money transmission services, or any other person engaged
in the transfer of funds. The term “money transmission services” means the acceptance
of currency, funds, or other value that substitutes for currency from one person AND the
transmission of currency, funds, or other value that substitutes for currency to another
location or person by any means.3
The regulations also stipulate that whether a person is
a money transmitter is a matter of facts and circumstances, and enumerates business
models where a person’s activities would not make such person a money transmitter.
Generally, the acceptance and transmission of funds only integral to the sale of goods or
the provision of services, other than money transmission services, will not cause the
person that is accepting and transmitting the funds to be a money transmitter.”4

http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/rulings/pdf/FIN-2012-R004.pdf

I'm no lawyer but I think it could be easily argued that these miners don't transmit money, only verify financial transactions. But with this Mt. Gox investigation, there's no telling what they'll do next. Fortunately for us, this is not a fight the gov can win.

shmadz

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

@theshmadz

@ Bowjob: sorry to hear of your problems. Without knowing the location and condition/details of your parents house it is difficult to know what your best course of action might be.

(my parents are in a similar position, with a large amount still owing on their property, and approaching retirement (and the fixed "income" that entails) luckily for us, their house has not dropped in value, (yet) and they are doing massive renovations to try to increase value before they sell and move into something more modest)

best of luck, and "may your avalons arrive soon and hash promptly"

josh_nc

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Quote from: organofcorti on May 18, 2013, 08:08:48 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

~101 THash/sec down to ~76 THash/sec between May 13 and May 16. That's the ~25 THash/sec drop.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

grue

legendary

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1452

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on May 18, 2013, 05:34:49 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

Maybe it's the fact that 380 Avalons stopped mining and are being shipped?

cue conspiracy theories

jspielberg

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 255

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on May 18, 2013, 05:34:49 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

Maybe it's the fact that 380 Avalons stopped mining and are being shipped?

I think I would be fine with them mining with the machines under test while the full batch is being built. Once the full batch is ready to ship... they all ship out in mass, and no one needs to wonder if they are especially lucky or not. It also would put and end date to the test phase. However that isn't what has been communicated.

01BTC10

vip

Activity: 756

Merit: 503

Hope I'm not order #381. Cheesy

tiananmenqian

newbie

Activity: 54

Merit: 0

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on May 18, 2013, 05:34:49 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

Maybe it's the fact that 380 Avalons stopped mining and are being shipped?

we hope so

Matthew N. Wright

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 05:06:34 PM

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

Maybe it's the fact that 380 Avalons stopped mining and are being shipped?

josh_nc

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.

I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

neotrix

sr. member

Activity: 428

Merit: 250

Does batch 2 has started to be shipped ? I still wait 2 of mines, ordered 2 february and for which I'm suppose to pray they arrive to the right adress in Thailand lol...But as not able to have any communication with avalon...I pray.

Anyway if I dont receive it, I will have the right to call avalon a scam then ? If I receive them I will be very happy to post here about.

I understand the delay and anything but with all bugs the shop had for sales of batch2, a case by case support was expected to avoid to send my avalons to another people (We all remind we smetime see the checkout page of other users...)...Let pray...

ProfMac

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1002

Quote from: WinTame2012 on May 18, 2013, 03:41:52 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 03:37:05 PM

Quote from: WinTame2012 on May 18, 2013, 03:33:18 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 03:31:26 PM

Just a quick word on the politics and definition of bitcoins. I believe it would be very wise not to call bitcoin a currency. Bitcoin is a token. You buy this token with currency and in the end it is sold back for currency. It cannot exist without a currency behind it so it is not a currency per se. I think it would be very wise to start thinking of BTC as a TOKEN. Just my 0.002 tokens

Disagree, sorry

Why? I'm being prudent and practical. My reasoning is that as a token bitcoin is not competing with any currency, like gold. You can say gold is a currency but for all practical purposes it is not. You cannot go to any store and buy anything with gold. You can sell your gold for currency and then buy something. Same with btcs. What is your reasoning?

It's been not so long when gold was accepted in stores, at least in US. This simple.

The March 18 FinCEN document called bitcoin a virtual currency. That distinction is enough to keep it separate from USD, Euros, and the like for purposes of regulation and taxation. I think, as a group, we call it digital currency or virtual currency in the majority, and it should not be difficult to adopt the uniform language of virtual currency.

WinTame2012

sr. member

Activity: 315

Merit: 250

Official sponsor of Microsoft Corp.

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 03:37:05 PM

Quote from: WinTame2012 on May 18, 2013, 03:33:18 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 03:31:26 PM

Just a quick word on the politics and definition of bitcoins. I believe it would be very wise not to call bitcoin a currency. Bitcoin is a token. You buy this token with currency and in the end it is sold back for currency. It cannot exist without a currency behind it so it is not a currency per se. I think it would be very wise to start thinking of BTC as a TOKEN. Just my 0.002 tokens

Disagree, sorry

Why? I'm being prudent and practical. My reasoning is that as a token bitcoin is not competing with any currency, like gold. You can say gold is a currency but for all practical purposes it is not. You cannot go to any store and buy anything with gold. You can sell your gold for currency and then buy something. Same with btcs. What is your reasoning?

It's been not so long when gold was accepted in stores, at least in US. This simple.

josh_nc

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Quote from: WinTame2012 on May 18, 2013, 03:33:18 PM

Quote from: josh_nc on May 18, 2013, 03:31:26 PM

Just a quick word on the politics and definition of bitcoins. I believe it would be very wise not to call bitcoin a currency. Bitcoin is a token. You buy this token with currency and in the end it is sold back for currency. It cannot exist without a currency behind it so it is not a currency per se. I think it would be very wise to start thinking of BTC as a TOKEN. Just my 0.002 tokens

Disagree, sorry

Why? I'm being prudent and practical. My reasoning is that as a token bitcoin is not competing with any currency, like gold. You can say gold is a currency but for all practical purposes it is not. You cannot go to any store and buy anything with gold. You can sell your gold for currency and then buy something. Same with btcs. What is your reasoning?

Topic: Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 52. (Read 141540 times)