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Topic: Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 63. (Read 141540 times)

sr. member
Activity: 315
Merit: 250
Official sponsor of Microsoft Corp.
May 12, 2013, 05:03:02 PM
I have a dream that Sunday, May 19 Yifu Guo will come to the people at Bitcoin-2013 conference and say that Avalon team have re-designed chips for better energy efficiency (hence the delay) and batch #2 and batch #3 customers will get 20% more performance from their machines.
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
May 12, 2013, 04:26:24 PM
With it being the start of the "second week of May" tomorrow, hopefully we'll see some orders start to ship out, or at the very least, an update on what's going on.

[edit] Wait a sec, we're actually going into the third :|
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
May 12, 2013, 04:04:13 PM
Supposedly they are honoring Batch 2 prices since that was the stipulation they made previously, and the reason why many of us chose to forgo what we presumed to be one week of Icarus profits, but has turned into nearly four weeks of lost profits. It's difficult for me to explain to investors why I am no longer making them money, but I am promising them the hope of making even more in the future.
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 255
May 12, 2013, 01:08:07 PM
New Question...

As Avalon has moved to only BTC, will trade-in orders be priced in BTC at Batch3 prices or Batch 2 prices (with trade-in value in BTC)?
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
May 12, 2013, 01:02:38 PM
Someone please ask him if he will give the tracking numbers! Nobody wants to have his package stolen or lost.

I think the best questions would be:  1.  We have not heard anything new on batch #2 trade-ins, Can you provide a status update on that?
2.  Its now approximately 7 days past when batch #3 was supposed to ship.   Can you also provide updated shipping dates for Batch #2 and Batch #3?
3.  A business is a business.   Is there going to be any compensation for the delays?

On a sidenote it costs 2.6btc to goto bitcoin 2013 conference or $300; located in San Jose.
hero member
Activity: 486
Merit: 500
May 11, 2013, 06:04:17 PM
so End of May?
vip
Activity: 756
Merit: 503
May 11, 2013, 05:17:14 PM
Batch #2 wasn't more expensive than batch #1. $1500 including shipping vs $1299 + shipping.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 100
May 11, 2013, 05:15:25 PM
Interesting to see what will happen with batch 2 and batch 3 or what the return on investment will be for batch 2 or more importantly batch 3.

This is probably not true but batch 1 could have been a giant trust scam to increase prices for batches 2 & 3 and collect much more money, this company has received millions of dollars from batches 2 & 3.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
Circle gets the Square
May 11, 2013, 05:13:07 PM
Someone PLEASE ask him when Batch #2 is actually going to arrive at our doors! PLEASE!

 Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 298
Merit: 250
May 11, 2013, 05:04:44 PM
Someone please ask him if he will give the tracking numbers! Nobody wants to have his package stolen or lost.
hero member
Activity: 631
Merit: 500
sr. member
Activity: 298
Merit: 250
May 11, 2013, 01:41:59 AM
Yifu's speaking at bitcoin 2013 in a week. We could lay out the welcome mat for him...

When exactly?
legendary
Activity: 1600
Merit: 1014
May 11, 2013, 12:41:41 AM
who exactly is responsible for shipping delays?

It is not Avalon's primary goal to deliver batch 2 as fast as possible, so they didn't outsource pretty much anything I guess and decided to do that on their own production line. Of course ramping up production always means delay and trouble.
legendary
Activity: 1848
Merit: 1001
May 10, 2013, 10:06:16 PM
who exactly is responsible for shipping delays?

i have no issue with things being slow if there is a valid reason,  but if that reason is merely so someone can mine as much as they can until the difficulty makes it almost not worth mining....

i hear these 'names' time and again but i dont even know if they are real names, real people or anything...

when new projects are announced we see the community dig deep and expose what is what and who is who no matter how much hiding and distorting they do, is this not possible with the receivers of millions of usd worth of btc?

do any of you buyers really want to pay another penny towards what could well be redundant tech by the time it arrives?
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
May 10, 2013, 04:17:36 PM

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? Tongue)

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

Money changes people. It is nothing to blame them for. Just try to think of yourself in that position, 1 year earlier just a regular student with some bitcoins, right now you are a millionair on paper and can make some million a month by simply delaying a product. This is a once in a lifetime chance for you.

Better be thankful that they dont scam us.

IMHO, this is one hell of a short shighted point of view. why make money while burn you reputation with the people that made you rich? the delay maybe because  another uncontrolable forces. if you got the skills and resources that allow you to live confortably, with the right mindset the future can be much more brighter than one account full of money.
hero member
Activity: 631
Merit: 500
May 10, 2013, 12:21:37 PM

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? Tongue)

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

Money changes people. It is nothing to blame them for. Just try to think of yourself in that position, 1 year earlier just a regular student with some bitcoins, right now you are a millionair on paper and can make some million a month by simply delaying a product. This is a once in a lifetime chance for you.

Better be thankful that they dont scam us.


thank you thank you thank you for not taking a dump in my mouth. you're too kind.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
May 10, 2013, 10:52:34 AM
Sure, but once you got your first million you want more. Dont judge them. Also, our ROI will be in the worst case something about 1year(talking about batch 3, batch 2 has no reason to cry at all).

The idea that batch 2 was cheap is not correct. Early batch 2 orders(2/2 - 2/3) paid the same for their purchases as batch 3 orders did. The rapidly rising exchange rate would've had little effect on batch 2 pricing if a competent payment processor had been employed, but that wasn't the case. As a result later batch 2 orders got a 33%+ discount. Early batch 2 customers have every right to complain about these delays.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
May 10, 2013, 09:25:13 AM
They where already millionaires (batch 3/chips). There was no need to scam us and force their investors to lose money.
Sure, but once you got your first million you want more. Dont judge them. Also, our ROI will be in the worst case something about 1year(talking about batch 3, batch 2 has no reason to cry at all).
Batch 2 was paid more than 75btc so I don't see how we should not be "crying"... Your 1 year estimates are fairly optimistic. I should not judge them for wanting to have more than a miserable million? Really?
We will see who was right.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 262
May 10, 2013, 09:20:04 AM
They where already millionaires (batch 3/chips). There was no need to scam us and force their investors to lose money.

Sure, but once you got your first million you want more. Dont judge them. Also, our ROI will be in the worst case something about 1year(talking about batch 3, batch 2 has no reason to cry at all).
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
May 10, 2013, 09:15:58 AM
They where already millionaires (batch 3/chips). There was no need to scam us and force their investors to lose money.
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