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Topic: Avalon batch [2] countdown! - page 64. (Read 141540 times)

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 262
May 10, 2013, 09:14:30 AM

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? Tongue)

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

Money changes people. It is nothing to blame them for. Just try to think of yourself in that position, 1 year earlier just a regular student with some bitcoins, right now you are a millionair on paper and can make some million a month by simply delaying a product. This is a once in a lifetime chance for you.

Better be thankful that they dont scam us.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1020
Be A Digital Miner
May 10, 2013, 09:11:15 AM

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? Tongue)

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
May 10, 2013, 08:57:12 AM

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?


ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.
Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

So what are you implying? Maybe avalon just ships when all batch 2 units are build and running.

I believe he is implying that avalon is mining with customers' units.  Which would not surprise me at all, seeing as several customers of batch one complained that their units appeared used and had fans coated in dust. I believe that the community consensus is that mining with customers' unit on the network is unethical and I would venture a guess that it is tantamount to theft.

But they clearly stated you are not customers. You are whiney miners who want something for nothing. Suck it up.
That is the main reason I never pulled the trigger on any batches with them. I just could not send my money to people
who had such a crappy attitude and service.

In the end I lost out due to not ordering batch #1 (i think) but the amount of stress saved was worth it. Sometimes trying
to make a few bucks is not worth the bother when you have to place all the trust on people who do not care about you
as a customer.
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
May 10, 2013, 08:42:10 AM

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?


ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.
Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

So what are you implying? Maybe avalon just ships when all batch 2 units are build and running.

I believe he is implying that avalon is mining with customers' units.  Which would not surprise me at all, seeing as several customers of batch one complained that their units appeared used and had fans coated in dust. I believe that the community consensus is that mining with customers' unit on the network is unethical and I would venture a guess that it is tantamount to theft.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 262
May 10, 2013, 03:53:01 AM

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?


ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.
Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

So what are you implying? Maybe avalon just ships when all batch 2 units are build and running.
legendary
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1851
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
May 10, 2013, 03:35:11 AM

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?


ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.
Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 262
May 10, 2013, 02:40:40 AM

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?


ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.
donator
Activity: 1419
Merit: 1015
May 10, 2013, 01:30:22 AM
No news to add to my thread in my signature as well. I'm relatively certain that I was one of the first trade-ins cause I shipped them back and they were signed for on the Friday after the Monday when we were told to ship them back in.

I'm not gonna lie. I'm regretting having sent something that was making me money for four lost weeks of mining profits.

It would seem to me we're owed some sort of notification or something, but whatever, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

As ngzhang once said, "BFL's business flow is: announce dreamlike specs -> taking pre-orders -> find people to development -> if succeed, release and shipment. if fail, run. BFL sell products at super low price because their customer take all risks."

My response would be, "Avalon's business flow is: deliver promised ASICs from first batch -> take two new batches of pre-orders -> spend one month waiting -> ask customers to send in FPGAs -> wait one more month. Avalon bases price on one month ROI because customer takes all risks."

I'm more than happy to work with Avalon, but they should not have asked us to send in our trade-ins one month prior to shipping, IMHO. I suppose this is a difference between Eastern culture and Western culture. In China, people owe their entire lives to their employer. Whenever there is a suicide at a Foxconn plant, it speaks ill of the employer. That's why you hear about that in the news coming out of Asia. In the US, no one commits suicide, because employers here are far too lax, and the unions have all the control. In China, the company has control, and their customers know it and respect them for allowing them to have the product. This seems so contrary to all of Western civilization, but it's just how business is done.

I don't fault the Avalon team or BitSyncom for respecting their employees over their customers, it's just really hard to adapt to this as someone living in the West.

Eagerly awaiting my chance to pay the difference for my Icarus trade-in towards a new Avalon...
legendary
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1851
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
May 10, 2013, 12:50:48 AM
I, for one, would appreciate Kano posting any evidence (even circumstantial) that would lead one to believe that Avalon has been mining with the Batch II units that they do not own.  
As to how Yifu spends his own money, I do not care.   If someone is using (or stealing) my money, then I do care and will take action.  
So Kano, come on, prove that you are not just a scorned troll and post something with meat.

I forgot about this but there is another possibility for why the avalons have been delayed and don't include them just mining with our units and making a killing and thats the phenominon known as "because china"
they sounded pretty adamant that they were shipping 20 out immediately to test shipping and the rest would start "next week".   because china applies to things that are two weeks away not to 20 units that are there and ready to ship.
I want Kano to reply though.   He has made the accusations, so I want him to show some reason to believe him

Well Smiley
Firstly regarding "because china", I presume most know, but they are actually shipping them in a very problematic manner Tongue
That's the truth of the first batch problems (currently ngzhang's last post in the forum over 5 weeks ago)
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1722018
...
why we use such a screwed work flow?

1, save shipment cost.
2, if we go to DHL directly, they didn't accept this device, there is PSU and FANs in it, which is contraband. only these agent can send them out by doing some bribery work. if we tell them we are not satisfied, they simply ask us to deal with DHL ourself instead.

fuck

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? Tongue)

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
May 09, 2013, 06:35:14 PM
Guys, avalon is just as upset as you are. Their hookers and blow is running late too!
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
May 09, 2013, 06:33:05 PM
I'm back to cheering mode lol.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
May 09, 2013, 06:19:05 PM
That wine bottle must surely be empty by now.

He is so drunk right now.

LOL  Cheesy Grin

PS: You guys worry too much. We will all see a decent ROI, just stop worrying and let Avalon do their thing. I'd still much rather be on Avalon's boat than the BFL sinking ship.

Well what is relevant is if you are a business, you should have good communication with your customers.   Avalon's communication to its customers is pretty poor.  Secondly being punctual and on-time is a very good thing to have when doing business.  If you say a deadline, try your best to stick to it.   In this ASIC business, excuses are like assholes, everyone's got at least one and they all stink.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1026
In Cryptocoins I Trust
May 09, 2013, 05:53:38 PM
That wine bottle must surely be empty by now.

He is so drunk right now.

LOL  Cheesy Grin

PS: You guys worry too much. We will all see a decent ROI, just stop worrying and let Avalon do their thing. I'd still much rather be on Avalon's boat than the BFL sinking ship.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1020
Be A Digital Miner
May 09, 2013, 05:27:27 PM
let's keep the thread Relevant
I don't care about kano and Yifu's piss match. That is of no help to customers who are waiting on their shipment.
+1. Report off-topic responses.
Relevant?   You are sitting around saying "anyone hear anything from the guys that said they were shipping three weeks ago?"
If that is the kind of relevant that you are looking for you might as well go to BFL's shoutbox because BFL has now become more communicative than Avalon.
hero member
Activity: 711
Merit: 532
May 09, 2013, 04:49:37 PM
I think Batch 2 and 3 will go out at the same time..just a hunch

Yeah, we know what your hunches are worth.

Aye! Ten more days till shipping time. Let's add more pillars to the BTC network... and get rewarded in doing so. I leave you with this pic, gentlemen.


That wine bottle must surely be empty by now.

He is so drunk right now.
hero member
Activity: 682
Merit: 500
May 09, 2013, 04:25:34 PM
The truth is that this post went through a lot of different phases.

First cheering joy.

Then, doubts start spreading.

After than, burst of irrational anger. Insults and accusations fly all over the place.

Suddenly, denial.

And finally, acceptance  Grin
Speak for yourself, I'm still in denial.

"LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU MY AVALON IS SHIPPING TOMORROW AND I WILL MAKE MANY MILLIONS"

 Grin Grin Grin
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
May 09, 2013, 04:22:44 PM
The truth is that this post went through a lot of different phases.

First cheering joy.

Then, doubts start spreading.

After than, burst of irrational anger. Insults and accusations fly all over the place.

Suddenly, denial.

And finally, acceptance  Grin

Speak for yourself, I'm still in denial.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
May 09, 2013, 04:18:10 PM
The truth is that this post went through a lot of different phases.

First cheering joy.

Then, doubts start spreading.

After than, burst of irrational anger. Insults and accusations fly all over the place.

Suddenly, denial.

And finally, acceptance  Grin
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
May 09, 2013, 04:13:19 PM
I think Batch 2 and 3 will go out at the same time..just a hunch

Yeah, we know what your hunches are worth.

Aye! Ten more days till shipping time. Let's add more pillars to the BTC network... and get rewarded in doing so. I leave you with this pic, gentlemen.


That wine bottle must surely be empty by now.
full member
Activity: 201
Merit: 100
May 09, 2013, 04:13:03 PM
In the meantime I'll just have to settle for watching my kids grow up and kissing my wife....

For the right amount of bitcoins, both of those chores can be outsourced Wink
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