Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 42.

Matthew N. Wright

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Quote from: jspielberg on May 27, 2013, 03:33:17 PM

Quote from: Anenome5 on May 27, 2013, 03:21:56 PM

Quote from: Rampion on May 27, 2013, 10:14:33 AM

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)

jspielberg

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Quote from: Anenome5 on May 27, 2013, 03:21:56 PM

Quote from: Rampion on May 27, 2013, 10:14:33 AM

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

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Quote from: Rampion on May 27, 2013, 10:14:33 AM

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

Rampion

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Quote from: WinTame2012 on May 27, 2013, 09:58:18 AM

Quote from: Rampion on May 27, 2013, 09:03:07 AM

Batch #3 pricing:

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 03:10:33 PM

Quote from: Rampion

Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).

If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.

ROI is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_Investment. You want to use "break even" term instead to avoid confusion

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

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Quote from: Rampion on May 27, 2013, 09:03:07 AM

Batch #3 pricing:

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 03:10:33 PM

Quote from: Rampion

Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).

If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.

ROI is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_Investment. You want to use "break even" term instead to avoid confusion

Rampion

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Batch #3 pricing:

Quote from: BitSyncom on March 20, 2013, 03:10:33 PM

Quote from: Rampion

Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).

If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.

watertech666

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don't be urgent to order chips! Avalon batch 2# still not be dispatched. we shall see if they are reliable.

SolarSilver

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Quote from: yocko06 on May 27, 2013, 01:26:24 AM

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.

Why the 19th of June?

Quote

I think my bfl orders may never come now.

Then get a refund and put your money to good use buy investing into something more useful

It amazes me that some people still keep clinging to those... you know that the equipment, if ever delivered late this summer will be not according to specs like power consumption.

You might as well put your money into one of the open hardware projects around the Avalon chips. Probably get your working equipment earlier than with BFL :-)

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Quote from: yocko06 on May 27, 2013, 01:26:24 AM

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.

really?

yocko06

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1Kgyk4nQSzb3Pm9E9vWiGVyJ6jpPwripKf

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.

watertech666

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batch 2# is not reach yet. How about batch 3#? waiting waiting waiting till ngzhang make enough BTC Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2279573

Wayne_Chang

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Quote from: kefky on May 24, 2013, 03:12:25 AM

My orders status are still "processing".
Does anyone has anything else?

Keep waiting. My batch #2 parts are still "processing".

kefky

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My orders status are still "processing".
Does anyone has anything else?

grue

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so batch 3 will be finished shipping sometime in june?

Matthew N. Wright

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Quote from: GodfatherBond on May 17, 2013, 09:33:18 AM

Great if all are delivered by end of june!
btw from where this Yifu quote is ...irc?

Edit: I'll be migrating from Skype soon having learned recently that the government is *admittedly* logging everything without warrants. Buggy Pidgin, here we come.

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Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on May 17, 2013, 09:11:09 AM

Quote from: batman, not crabman on May 17, 2013, 09:09:43 AM

Quote from: glendall on May 17, 2013, 08:56:39 AM

Hey crabm -- sorry batman, batch 2 has now (at least begun) shipping. So we can rejoice a bit.... yeeha!

I'm going to guess there won't be a huge delay between the shipping of batches 1 and 2, but on the down side, it's going to be overall a somewhat slow process to get all of batch 1 , then batch 2, shipped.

But all good. Super stoked. And I think lateness should be well within my personal acceptable range of 1/10th of late as BFL, so I'm happy.

Sweet!

Thanks for the update but how do you know? Their site still says 'production' for Batch 2.

I assume you mean batches 2 & 3 above?

Quote

[5/16/2013 9:44:37 AM] Yifu Guo [USA]: they are starting to ship out now, i expect batch three to finish some time around june

Great if all are delivered by end of june!
btw from where this Yifu quote is ...irc?

Matthew N. Wright

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Quote from: batman, not crabman on May 17, 2013, 09:09:43 AM

Quote from: glendall on May 17, 2013, 08:56:39 AM

Hey crabm -- sorry batman, batch 2 has now (at least begun) shipping. So we can rejoice a bit.... yeeha!

I'm going to guess there won't be a huge delay between the shipping of batches 1 and 2, but on the down side, it's going to be overall a somewhat slow process to get all of batch 1 , then batch 2, shipped.

But all good. Super stoked. And I think lateness should be well within my personal acceptable range of 1/10th of late as BFL, so I'm happy.

Sweet!

Thanks for the update but how do you know? Their site still says 'production' for Batch 2.

I assume you mean batches 2 & 3 above?

Quote

[5/16/2013 9:44:37 AM] Yifu Guo [USA]: they are starting to ship out now, i expect batch three to finish some time around june

batman, not crabman

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Quote from: glendall on May 17, 2013, 08:56:39 AM

Hey crabm -- sorry batman, batch 2 has now (at least begun) shipping. So we can rejoice a bit.... yeeha!

I'm going to guess there won't be a huge delay between the shipping of batches 1 and 2, but on the down side, it's going to be overall a somewhat slow process to get all of batch 1 , then batch 2, shipped.

But all good. Super stoked. And I think lateness should be well within my personal acceptable range of 1/10th of late as BFL, so I'm happy.

Sweet!

Thanks for the update but how do you know? Their site still says 'production' for Batch 2.

I assume you mean batches 2 & 3 above?

glendall

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Hey crabm -- sorry batman, batch 2 has now (at least begun) shipping. So we can rejoice a bit.... yeeha!

I'm going to guess there won't be a huge delay between the shipping of batches 1 and 2, but on the down side, it's going to be overall a somewhat slow process to get all of batch 1 , then batch 2, shipped.

But all good. Super stoked. And I think lateness should be well within my personal acceptable range of 1/10th of late as BFL, so I'm happy.

batman, not crabman

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I can only hope.

A quick eyeball of the network hash rate graph indicates it's gone down by ~6 TH/s or ~92 * 65GH/s Avalons (The real number is probably ~80 as some people ordered the 4 module version). Given batch 2 hasn't started shipping yet and some people haven't received their batch 1 orders (apparently) it's progress but everyone's a way off getting anything.

Even if it takes a couple of months to pay for itself it's a massive ROI compared to anything else out there so we should try and keep things in perspective here

Topic: Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 42. (Read 56672 times)