Agreed --- I believe that Yifu is a pretty stand up guy.
I also think, the people who receive their avalons will have no issues making back their BTC (and I personally think it will take less than 4 months).
Topic: Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 42. (Read 56642 times)
I'm going to donate the first 10BTC I mine, to bitcointalk forum, if I get my Avalon ASIC batch #3 before 30/6/2013. I will be really happy if I need to donate.
I hope Yifu read this!
I hope Yifu read this!
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?
Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)
About a month according to this:
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator
But the difficulty will be higher once you get yours, so maybe a little longer. Even if difficulty quadruples, so you pay it off after 4 months. Everything else after that is profit. 4 months is not unreasonable to see a profit in any investment. I personally think it will be closer to 2 months ROI assuming they start shipping batch 3s in June, right after batch 2. That's just taking yifu at his word which I have no reason to doubt.
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?
Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)
I am being optimistic and thinking 90 days.... but that is partially wishful thinking and partially the fact that there are too many unknowns to model anything close to accurate (by me) more than 45 days out.
I take place here, waiting for my Avalon batch #3.
I start to be desesperate
I start to be desesperate
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Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?
Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
Batch #3 pricing:
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).
If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.
ROI is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_Investment. You want to use "break even" term instead to avoid confusion Quote from: Rampion
Two questions:
- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?
- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).
If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
Batch #3 pricing:
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).
If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.
ROI is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_Investment. You want to use "break even" term instead to avoid confusion Quote from: Rampion
Two questions:
- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?
- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).
If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.
Batch #3 pricing:
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).
If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.
Quote from: Rampion
Two questions:
- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?
- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?
- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.
Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.
I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).
If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.
don't be urgent to order chips! Avalon batch 2# still not be dispatched. we shall see if they are reliable.
after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
Why the 19th of June?
Quote
I think my bfl orders may never come now.
Then get a refund and put your money to good use buy investing into something more useful
It amazes me that some people still keep clinging to those... you know that the equipment, if ever delivered late this summer will be not according to specs like power consumption.
You might as well put your money into one of the open hardware projects around the Avalon chips. Probably get your working equipment earlier than with BFL :-)
after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.
really?
after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.
batch 2# is not reach yet. How about batch 3#? waiting waiting waiting till ngzhang make enough BTC 
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2279573
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2279573
My orders status are still "processing".
Does anyone has anything else?
Keep waiting. My batch #2 parts are still "processing". Does anyone has anything else?
My orders status are still "processing".
Does anyone has anything else?
Does anyone has anything else?
so batch 3 will be finished shipping sometime in june?
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Great if all are delivered by end of june!
btw from where this Yifu quote is ...irc?
btw from where this Yifu quote is ...irc?
Edit: I'll be migrating from Skype soon having learned recently that the government is *admittedly* logging everything without warrants. Buggy Pidgin, here we come.
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