Topic: Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 41. (Read 56672 times)
Who told you that they would rush shipping?
600 orders at 75 bitcoins today = $5,400,000
600 asics * 68Gh/s each = 40,800 Gh/s
40,800 Gh/s = $160,000 per day at the new 15.6mil difficulty. $200,000 at the previous 12mil difficulty.
I'm willing to bet they've mined close to, if not more than that $5.4mil already!
Why would they rush shipping them at this point?
600 asics * 68Gh/s each = 40,800 Gh/s
40,800 Gh/s = $160,000 per day at the new 15.6mil difficulty. $200,000 at the previous 12mil difficulty.
I'm willing to bet they've mined close to, if not more than that $5.4mil already!
Why would they rush shipping them at this point?
what else can we do?!
What can we do to give Avalon pressure to agree refund?I want to refund my batch#3 order.
At this point it would be more profitable for them to refund all their existing pre-orders and just mine with the equipment themselves, which they're already doing minus the refunds.
what else can we do?!
What can we do to give Avalon pressure to agree refund?I want to refund my batch#3 order.
isnt this the saddest thread in this forum?
anyone wants to talk about the ROI for these machines?
anyone wants to talk about the ROI for these machines?
I admit it sucks sitting on the sidelines watching difficulty skyrocket. Meanwhile paying rent +bills at a commercial property that is empty of any hashing ASICs...
Sad times indeed.
Yet, I still remain optimistic Avalon will deliver soon. Hopefully Batch 3 is well under way by the end of the month.
what else can we do?!
I think we should think what we can do at this point instead of waiting for Avalon's update.
isnt this the saddest thread in this forum?
anyone wants to talk about the ROI for these machines?
anyone wants to talk about the ROI for these machines?
that 30% diff jump was scary.
The hashrate drop makes me think ..... What if this isn't variance but alot of Avalons now getting packed for shipment..!!! B2&B3? Just guessing....
This was actually mentioned by someone else in a different thread. Something about a few THs dropping off the network suddenly.
The fluctuations are greater with ASIC's, because all that power is in one basket. On minute offline is like $100 to a big-rig. lol.
That, plus switching pools, network traffic, dropped packets, orphaned blocks, failed blocks, etc... That happens 100x faster to an ASIC, and 100x more often. Call it a "flaw" of thinking too fast for your own good... Sort of like the ADD of computers.
Ohmygod!! Theres a mining operation pulling in 144,000 if its online for 24 hours!!!!(100$ a minute)
that 30% diff jump was scary.
The hashrate drop makes me think ..... What if this isn't variance but alot of Avalons now getting packed for shipment..!!! B2&B3? Just guessing....
This was actually mentioned by someone else in a different thread. Something about a few THs dropping off the network suddenly.
The fluctuations are greater with ASIC's, because all that power is in one basket. On minute offline is like $100 to a big-rig. lol.
That, plus switching pools, network traffic, dropped packets, orphaned blocks, failed blocks, etc... That happens 100x faster to an ASIC, and 100x more often. Call it a "flaw" of thinking too fast for your own good... Sort of like the ADD of computers.
Personally, I consider break even in USD as 'break even'. It's what I use every day, and over half the cost of mine was in $ as I didn't have the BTC.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.
Then why bother to buy mining equipment? You would have been easier of just buying the BTC and holding it if just the USD gain is what you were after...
Most of us want to grow (and keep growing) our BTC holdings
This.
batman: if you paid your mining rig in USD, then your logic *may* make sense. But as we are discussing about Avalon batch #3, which was paid in BTC, the only breakeven that matters is in BTC terms.
Personally, I consider break even in USD as 'break even'. It's what I use every day, and over half the cost of mine was in $ as I didn't have the BTC.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.
Then why bother to buy mining equipment? You would have been easier of just buying the BTC and holding it if just the USD gain is what you were after...
Most of us want to grow (and keep growing) our BTC holdings
Personally, I consider break even in USD as 'break even'. It's what I use every day, and over half the cost of mine was in $ as I didn't have the BTC.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.
I can see how miners who paid solely in BTC consider that to be break even though.
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
Your calculations are completely wrong.
1) I paid 76.46btc for a 3 modules unit, thus you should put $10,000 as "rig cost". The point is to break even in btc, not in usd
2) the crucial point is that you are considering a constant difficulty of 35m during 46 days, which won't happen. Difficulty retargets every 15 days, so after 30 days of receiving your unit diff may well be 70m.
Summing up, you are not calculating the profitability decline during the analyzed timeframe, which is a huge mistake.
Use bitcoinx.com/profit and insert "0.01" in the "yearly profitability decline" field, which means that in 1 year difficulty will grow x100, and repeat your calculations.
As a rule of thumb: currently you should aim to break even in 1 month if you want to make some good long term profit. If you break even in 2 months it's ok, but if you don't is very likely that you won't b/e at all because of the huge grow in diff. we are witnessing.
after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.
Super!I think my bfl orders may never come now.
Which means that all batch2 and batch2 trade-ins shall be delivered first unless you are "special"
That are good news for all batch2 customers
There are only two weeks left
Agreed --- I believe that Yifu is a pretty stand up guy.
I also think, the people who receive their avalons will have no issues making back their BTC (and I personally think it will take less than 4 months).
I also think, the people who receive their avalons will have no issues making back their BTC (and I personally think it will take less than 4 months).
I'm going to donate the first 10BTC I mine, to bitcointalk forum, if I get my Avalon ASIC batch #3 before 30/6/2013. I will be really happy if I need to donate.
I hope Yifu read this!
I hope Yifu read this!
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?
Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)
About a month according to this:
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator
But the difficulty will be higher once you get yours, so maybe a little longer. Even if difficulty quadruples, so you pay it off after 4 months. Everything else after that is profit. 4 months is not unreasonable to see a profit in any investment. I personally think it will be closer to 2 months ROI assuming they start shipping batch 3s in June, right after batch 2. That's just taking yifu at his word which I have no reason to doubt.
Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.
You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?
Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)
I am being optimistic and thinking 90 days.... but that is partially wishful thinking and partially the fact that there are too many unknowns to model anything close to accurate (by me) more than 45 days out.
I take place here, waiting for my Avalon batch #3.
I start to be desesperate
I start to be desesperate
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