Betting strategy question - page 16.

xSkylarx

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Quote from: Finestream on March 03, 2023, 05:21:57 AM

Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 26, 2023, 08:16:14 AM

That's what we call luck, but you don't have that every time so I can also say that what if you didn't got that chance to win that multiplier? but it's all about how you see your opportunities and how you believe with the strategy that you are using, then plus the luck factor that most of the time gambler always hope that it will back them up.

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.
However, with the strategy used by gamblers, it can at least increase the possibility of generating multiplication with quite a lot of multiples and we get it successfully.
But all of that is only the second factor because as you said that there is still the luck factor that is expected and in every game or bet you can really win because of the main factor, namely luck.

Right. Strategies are nothing when you got no luck, most especially in slot games that are purely luck driven. So even if you make use of potential strategies in gambling, that won’t still work as gambling outcome rely mostly on luck. However, with this betting strategy shared by OP, i can say it’s really tempting to bet but if you keep on betting and chase bigger profits, probably that will only cause you to lose bigger amount of money instead of making it big in gambling.

That is luck base games which you need to luck on that and there are no strategy on it but on those card games others are using strategy as this can be use to increase their winning percentage bug again it is always a luck when it comes to gambling unless in sports betting that you have a high chance to win if you know who will you bet on. Also chasing your losses makes you lose more unless you have a ton of money to cover those loses even if you are in lose streak.

Fredomago

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Quote from: Finestream on March 03, 2023, 05:21:57 AM

Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 26, 2023, 08:16:14 AM

That's what we call luck, but you don't have that every time so I can also say that what if you didn't got that chance to win that multiplier? but it's all about how you see your opportunities and how you believe with the strategy that you are using, then plus the luck factor that most of the time gambler always hope that it will back them up.

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.
However, with the strategy used by gamblers, it can at least increase the possibility of generating multiplication with quite a lot of multiples and we get it successfully.
But all of that is only the second factor because as you said that there is still the luck factor that is expected and in every game or bet you can really win because of the main factor, namely luck.

Right. Strategies are nothing when you got no luck, most especially in slot games that are purely luck driven. So even if you make use of potential strategies in gambling, that won’t still work as gambling outcome rely mostly on luck. However, with this betting strategy shared by OP, i can say it’s really tempting to bet but if you keep on betting and chase bigger profits, probably that will only cause you to lose bigger amount of money instead of making it big in gambling.

Luck and good money management. I mean, when luck is backing you up and you know how to limit both your winning amount and losing amount, the chance of making money is not by far. The matter here is how you'll going to control yourself when executing your strategy and waiting for some good luck to give you decent earnings.

You can play long time period or you can ride for a quick outcome if you feeling lucky in that particular time.

348Judah

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Have you ever been given a particular strategy to use in gambling which eventually does not work for you and you regret later, that's why we need to think and rethink over any decision we are making before taking further steps of action when it comes to gambling strategies, there are sometimes we may see what others aren't, and that small mistake cab ruine a bet, not everything thing we received should be directly applicable to gambling when we are about taking an action, ours can work and blended up with the ones received from others for complementation.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 28, 2023, 06:04:59 PM

Quote from: nullama on February 28, 2023, 05:16:18 PM

If someone is saying to you that they're winning constantly, it probably means that they are not disclosing their losses.

That's a very common thing among gamblers, they forget how much they've lost, and only remember how much they've "won".

In most cases, specially in the long run, every gambler will have paid more to the casino than what the casino paid to them.

That's true, I don't think people are necessarily lying, it's more about genuinely not being able to keep proper track of the results. Or maybe it's just the wins are more strongly engraved in memory than losses.

I believe that most of gamblers are deluded into thinking they're somehow in a break-even position. I was like that years ago, but luckily the site I was playing provided profit/loss stats, which got me disillusioned.

I also believe that many people may not intentionally lie about their gambling results, but rather may struggle to keep accurate track of their wins and losses. This can be due to a variety of factors, such as forgetting losses, only remembering big wins, or simply not keeping a detailed record of their gambling activity.

But I believe that it's important for individuals to make a concerted effort to keep track of their gambling results because it can provide valuable insights into their overall profitability and help them make better decisions about their gambling activity. And in my case, I think significant losses are more likely to get engraved in my memory than wins.

Finestream

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Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 26, 2023, 08:16:14 AM

That's what we call luck, but you don't have that every time so I can also say that what if you didn't got that chance to win that multiplier? but it's all about how you see your opportunities and how you believe with the strategy that you are using, then plus the luck factor that most of the time gambler always hope that it will back them up.

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.
However, with the strategy used by gamblers, it can at least increase the possibility of generating multiplication with quite a lot of multiples and we get it successfully.
But all of that is only the second factor because as you said that there is still the luck factor that is expected and in every game or bet you can really win because of the main factor, namely luck.

Right. Strategies are nothing when you got no luck, most especially in slot games that are purely luck driven. So even if you make use of potential strategies in gambling, that won’t still work as gambling outcome rely mostly on luck. However, with this betting strategy shared by OP, i can say it’s really tempting to bet but if you keep on betting and chase bigger profits, probably that will only cause you to lose bigger amount of money instead of making it big in gambling.

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Quote from: goldkingcoiner on March 02, 2023, 11:24:57 AM

I don't think this math checks out unless you have many rolls, not just the one. You cannot really calculate the statistical sum of the profits with a single dye roll. Just like you cannot calculate the average mean with only a single number as that would make the number the average mean itself and calculating it has no point. That just seems a bit silly, to be honest.

There is no need to calculate EV here. Its a one time thing, so either you win or you lose. The chances of winning is around 17%.

I would take the bet with twice the amount as a regular dice game. That seems like a reasonable amount. But I would be wary of betting more, as the large winnings do not have any effect on the probability. Its still the same chance of winning as in a regular dice game.

This was already discussed earlier in this thread, i.e. >here<

EV is a wider concept than just calculating long-run winnings. Quick explanation:

- you would take a one-time coin-flip bet when for $1 wager you could win $100
- you wouldn't take such bet if for $1 wager you could only win $0.10

Why? You'd assess its EV, probably without realising it. All the relevant factors that you need to make a decision are the same as those used in the EV formula.

And, as also discussed, even with millions of bets, the actual result can deviate from the EV quite significantly.

CryptoHeadlineNews

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Quote from: len01 on March 02, 2023, 10:30:30 AM

I mean the slot machine has been set at what round it will usually bring up free spins or a large multiplier will appear. but depending on how much capital we survive to get to that round.

Yes, I totally agree with you on this very statement of yours, because the worst thing a user will do is to continue gambling simply because he/she wants to hit that jackpot of a slot machine, because speaking from experience, it may seems like a mission impossible, since unlike football whereby a user can predict the outcome of a game, slot is different, such as it works with numbers 0 and 1 and designed in such a way casinos will always be at advantage.

Solosanz

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Quote from: len01 on March 02, 2023, 10:30:30 AM

slot strategy or what is commonly called a slot game pattern is like a myth and it won't be of any use if we're unlucky. I mean the slot machine has been set at what round it will usually bring up free spins or a large multiplier will appear. but depending on how much capital we survive to get to that round.

You're correct for saying slot game is really unpredictable and it all depends on luck, but you're wrong if you think slot game has been set up which round it will bring the free spins or large multipliers, that's a rigged game because the slot game isn't provably fair. This is why you need to gamble on slot game where you can verify your own bet. However the problem of machine slot in offline gambling is the problem where you have no way to verify it and only trust the system.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 05:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?

Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.

-----------------------

Simulation for BTC1 bet:

EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04

Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup

Edit2:
A somewhat related video on a subject on unreasonable risk aversion. Good watch and not very long:

I don't think this math checks out unless you have many rolls, not just the one. You cannot really calculate the statistical sum of the profits with a single dye roll. Just like you cannot calculate the average mean with only a single number as that would make the number the average mean itself and calculating it has no point. That just seems a bit silly, to be honest.

There is no need to calculate EV here. Its a one time thing, so either you win or you lose. The chances of winning is around 17%.

I would take the bet with twice the amount as a regular dice game. That seems like a reasonable amount. But I would be wary of betting more, as the large winnings do not have any effect on the probability. Its still the same chance of winning as in a regular dice game.

len01

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Quote from: masulum on February 28, 2023, 09:50:43 AM

Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.

For me there is no strategy whatsoever that can be done to play slots, because its works by the machine, not our brains. We only bet, the rest is machines or programs (online slots).

it's true that in slot games we are the same as playing against a machine that has been set in such a way and we only need to press the spin button without using any strategy.
as far as I know, slot strategy or what is commonly called a slot game pattern is like a myth and it won't be of any use if we're unlucky. I mean the slot machine has been set at what round it will usually bring up free spins or a large multiplier will appear. but depending on how much capital we survive to get to that round.
but the real fact is that if we spend too long in slot games it will make us lose and that is what I mean by slot machines that have been set will continue to win and we will lose.

xSkylarx

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Quote from: Fredomago on March 02, 2023, 12:58:57 AM

Quote from: Bushdark on February 28, 2023, 03:37:08 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 28, 2023, 01:39:22 PM

Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.
However, with the strategy used by gamblers, it can at least increase the possibility of generating multiplication with quite a lot of multiples and we get it successfully.
But all of that is only the second factor because as you said that there is still the luck factor that is expected and in every game or bet you can really win because of the main factor, namely luck.

You can quit with decent winning when luck permits, though what you said is true, there's also strategy aside from luck, things that you already familiarize yourself from your past sessions, strategy that being developed coming from your experienced that adds up to how you base your bets.

Both sports and casino base game there's strategy that each gambler used to find some edge when executing what they've thing that will bring the win that they are aiming.

For me luck is the ultimate and I see it as a sole reason why many persons keep having consistent winning over the time. If we have a good strategy and we don't have a luck, we might be missing opportunities that would make us winning or something might keep making us not to bet on games we have predicted or we got from a good source. I can't count how many games I have missed that was given to me to bet on but I could not bet on them because I was somehow afraid to bet on those games, rather I amended the games and I became the loser because I could not bet on them with my clear eyes.

For sure, there are other people who feel the same way, not confident if luck will permit them to win and instead of taking the risk, they pause for a while and decided not to place their bets. Only to find out that the game wins and if they place some bets, they might be enjoying the winning amount, but it's gambling and you don't have any control over the outcome.

Take the risk and wait for the outcome. Win or lose, no one can decide aside from luck that will bring you the win.

It is always 50/50 whether you win or lose, but as long as you are enjoying it, it doesn't matter what the result is, as we know that we gamble for fun unless we gamble for profit, in which case we should be expecting to win. Though if luck struck us and mostly we don't notice this unless we are on a winning streak, then for sure that is the time we are glad and accumulating winnings, but again it is a very rare occurrence so we should not be dependent on it.

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Quote from: Mauser on March 02, 2023, 03:13:34 AM

Quote from: pawel7777 on February 28, 2023, 06:04:59 PM

Quote from: nullama on February 28, 2023, 05:16:18 PM

If someone is saying to you that they're winning constantly, it probably means that they are not disclosing their losses.

That's a very common thing among gamblers, they forget how much they've lost, and only remember how much they've "won".

In most cases, specially in the long run, every gambler will have paid more to the casino than what the casino paid to them.

That's true, I don't think people are necessarily lying, it's more about genuinely not being able to keep proper track of the results. Or maybe it's just the wins are more strongly engraved in memory than losses.

I believe that most of gamblers are deluded into thinking they're somehow in a break-even position. I was like that years ago, but luckily the site I was playing provided profit/loss stats, which got me disillusioned.

I agree, people are overstating their winnings and forgetting their losses faster not because they want to lie about it, but rather it's our brain that tries to hold on to happy memories over bad memories. It's just in human nature to focus more on the good things than the bad ones. That is why I think it's important to keep some form of summary on how much money we win and lose in gambling. This doesn't mean that we should record every bet, in my case I try to write down my weekly balances and every time I deposit or withdraw money. It's getting a bit complicated when using multiple casinos, but it will help us in the long run to stay on top of our finances. Also when talking with friends about gambling profits and losses I am always a bit cautious to blindly trust them everything they tell me. In a conversation when drinking some alcohol you always want to look a bit cooler than in reality. It's like when telling people about our weight, we will always take a few kilos off to make the world seem a bit better. The same is when it comes to profit in gambling, that is why don't trust other people blindly when they want to share their winning strategy in gambling.

I get where you're coming from, but I don't believe that the fact that our brains have a propensity toward powerful thought is the only explanation. People tend to keep their cool and continue being who they always have been, even when things are going swimmingly. In order to avoid making hasty decisions, I think it's a good idea to maintain score of how we're doing in games. We should also consider the opinions of our gaming companions, even if we don't always agree with them. Most people are honest when asked about their financial gains or losses. In the end, we must select for ourselves which facts to accept and which to dismiss. Let's exercise good judgment and indicate that we have faith in our close companions.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on February 28, 2023, 06:04:59 PM

Quote from: nullama on February 28, 2023, 05:16:18 PM

If someone is saying to you that they're winning constantly, it probably means that they are not disclosing their losses.

That's a very common thing among gamblers, they forget how much they've lost, and only remember how much they've "won".

In most cases, specially in the long run, every gambler will have paid more to the casino than what the casino paid to them.

That's true, I don't think people are necessarily lying, it's more about genuinely not being able to keep proper track of the results. Or maybe it's just the wins are more strongly engraved in memory than losses.

I believe that most of gamblers are deluded into thinking they're somehow in a break-even position. I was like that years ago, but luckily the site I was playing provided profit/loss stats, which got me disillusioned.

I agree, people are overstating their winnings and forgetting their losses faster not because they want to lie about it, but rather it's our brain that tries to hold on to happy memories over bad memories. It's just in human nature to focus more on the good things than the bad ones. That is why I think it's important to keep some form of summary on how much money we win and lose in gambling. This doesn't mean that we should record every bet, in my case I try to write down my weekly balances and every time I deposit or withdraw money. It's getting a bit complicated when using multiple casinos, but it will help us in the long run to stay on top of our finances. Also when talking with friends about gambling profits and losses I am always a bit cautious to blindly trust them everything they tell me. In a conversation when drinking some alcohol you always want to look a bit cooler than in reality. It's like when telling people about our weight, we will always take a few kilos off to make the world seem a bit better. The same is when it comes to profit in gambling, that is why don't trust other people blindly when they want to share their winning strategy in gambling.

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Quote from: Bushdark on February 28, 2023, 03:37:08 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 28, 2023, 01:39:22 PM

Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.
However, with the strategy used by gamblers, it can at least increase the possibility of generating multiplication with quite a lot of multiples and we get it successfully.
But all of that is only the second factor because as you said that there is still the luck factor that is expected and in every game or bet you can really win because of the main factor, namely luck.

You can quit with decent winning when luck permits, though what you said is true, there's also strategy aside from luck, things that you already familiarize yourself from your past sessions, strategy that being developed coming from your experienced that adds up to how you base your bets.

Both sports and casino base game there's strategy that each gambler used to find some edge when executing what they've thing that will bring the win that they are aiming.

For me luck is the ultimate and I see it as a sole reason why many persons keep having consistent winning over the time. If we have a good strategy and we don't have a luck, we might be missing opportunities that would make us winning or something might keep making us not to bet on games we have predicted or we got from a good source. I can't count how many games I have missed that was given to me to bet on but I could not bet on them because I was somehow afraid to bet on those games, rather I amended the games and I became the loser because I could not bet on them with my clear eyes.

For sure, there are other people who feel the same way, not confident if luck will permit them to win and instead of taking the risk, they pause for a while and decided not to place their bets. Only to find out that the game wins and if they place some bets, they might be enjoying the winning amount, but it's gambling and you don't have any control over the outcome.

Take the risk and wait for the outcome. Win or lose, no one can decide aside from luck that will bring you the win.

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Quote from: Maslate on February 22, 2023, 05:53:25 AM

Quote from: btc78 on February 22, 2023, 05:48:08 AM

Hunting big amount meaning you are risking that same amount also , and the games created specifically for the owner to win and just the piece of cake that is for the players.

It's not really that straightforward. While the owners may have the edge and ultimately win in the long run, not all gamblers are losers. In other words, while the majority of gamblers lose money, there are some exceptional gamblers who make money in gambling, especially in games with less or no house edge, such as sports betting and card games.

Quote from: btc78 on February 22, 2023, 05:48:08 AM

in this case? we are totally engaging in something that we cannot assure so with those chances ? we understand that winning is the least to happen and losing is what we always get.

No one is assured of their chances, which is why the word 'risk' exists.

lol gambling ahs never give an assurance as there are news that even fixed games bringing losses to those who bets upon so indeed that risk is what gambling accompanied forever.
either we accept defeat or chase losses ? the end will always the same and that is the higher chance of losing than winning.
this is what gambling moves and what we must understand and accept.

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Quote from: nullama on February 28, 2023, 05:16:18 PM

If someone is saying to you that they're winning constantly, it probably means that they are not disclosing their losses.

That's a very common thing among gamblers, they forget how much they've lost, and only remember how much they've "won".

In most cases, specially in the long run, every gambler will have paid more to the casino than what the casino paid to them.

That's true, I don't think people are necessarily lying, it's more about genuinely not being able to keep proper track of the results. Or maybe it's just the wins are more strongly engraved in memory than losses.

I believe that most of gamblers are deluded into thinking they're somehow in a break-even position. I was like that years ago, but luckily the site I was playing provided profit/loss stats, which got me disillusioned.

Smartvirus

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Quote from: redsun114 on February 28, 2023, 02:42:32 PM

Quote from: death69 on February 23, 2023, 02:49:54 PM

I'm all about the small bets when it comes to gamblin. As a sports bettor myself, I always gotta remind myself not to go nuts and stick to my budget. Its so easy to get caught up in the moment, but a reel baller knows when to cashout. One little trick I got is to keep it interesting without breakin' the bank by placing small bets on crazy long-shot outcomes. You know what I'm sayin? Like, I might throw down on some team with crazy odds to win it all, just for the kicks. Its a little game that can pay of bigg time if the stars align. But remember, homie, gamblin's all about the fun and games, not about makin' a livin'. So let's roll the dice and enjoy the ride!!!!

That's not a bad strategy at all, betting small amounts on teams with high odds. If you win only a few of the bets that you've made, you will still be in profit taking out your initial betting amounts from each game you've bet on so far. I will definitely give that a go on sports betting next time I go for it.

This won't have been a bad strategy except for the fact that, the chances of big odds playing out is always very slim. You very much can't have the thought except for cases where, your pretty sure the team has qualified and have got some other top game in some top league to reserve players for and even in such cases, you would find managers trying out there new guys and second eleven and also, the bookmakers would do just by reducing the odds on the part of the mid tier team. It's a game of xhnaces really and you never can have enough.

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Quote from: nullama on February 28, 2023, 05:16:18 PM

Quote from: Bushdark on February 28, 2023, 03:37:08 PM

~snip~
For me luck is the ultimate and I see it as a sole reason why many persons keep having consistent winning over the time. If we have a good strategy and we don't have a luck, we might be missing opportunities that would make us winning or something might keep making us not to bet on games we have predicted or we got from a good source. I can't count how many games I have missed that was given to me to bet on but I could not bet on them because I was somehow afraid to bet on those games, rather I amended the games and I became the loser because I could not bet on them with my clear eyes.

If someone is saying to you that they're winning constantly, it probably means that they are not disclosing their losses.

That's a very common thing among gamblers, they forget how much they've lost, and only remember how much they've "won".

In most cases, specially in the long run, every gambler will have paid more to the casino than what the casino paid to them.

This is actually true and this is why gambling industry is one of the most profitable and long time running because of these type of gamblers or people who do really keeping up on chasing on winning big.
Its true that on the time that you do have consecutive losses and then suddenly win some considerable amounts then those stress and impulsive emotion would be gone and would really be ending up
on being decisive and continue to play once again and forgot all of those disappointment earlier.

Never ever consider that there's a working strategy that could make you rich.These are only good on making the game longer but doesnt assure out profitability.

nullama

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Quote from: Bushdark on February 28, 2023, 03:37:08 PM

~snip~
For me luck is the ultimate and I see it as a sole reason why many persons keep having consistent winning over the time. If we have a good strategy and we don't have a luck, we might be missing opportunities that would make us winning or something might keep making us not to bet on games we have predicted or we got from a good source. I can't count how many games I have missed that was given to me to bet on but I could not bet on them because I was somehow afraid to bet on those games, rather I amended the games and I became the loser because I could not bet on them with my clear eyes.

If someone is saying to you that they're winning constantly, it probably means that they are not disclosing their losses.

That's a very common thing among gamblers, they forget how much they've lost, and only remember how much they've "won".

In most cases, specially in the long run, every gambler will have paid more to the casino than what the casino paid to them.

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Quote from: Bushdark on February 28, 2023, 03:37:08 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on February 28, 2023, 01:39:22 PM

Quote from: klidex on February 27, 2023, 06:32:48 PM

In fact, a gambler cannot determine and ensure that he really can have a multiplier opportunity like that found in slot games.
However, with the strategy used by gamblers, it can at least increase the possibility of generating multiplication with quite a lot of multiples and we get it successfully.
But all of that is only the second factor because as you said that there is still the luck factor that is expected and in every game or bet you can really win because of the main factor, namely luck.

You can quit with decent winning when luck permits, though what you said is true, there's also strategy aside from luck, things that you already familiarize yourself from your past sessions, strategy that being developed coming from your experienced that adds up to how you base your bets.

Both sports and casino base game there's strategy that each gambler used to find some edge when executing what they've thing that will bring the win that they are aiming.

For me luck is the ultimate and I see it as a sole reason why many persons keep having consistent winning over the time. If we have a good strategy and we don't have a luck, we might be missing opportunities that would make us winning or something might keep making us not to bet on games we have predicted or we got from a good source. I can't count how many games I have missed that was given to me to bet on but I could not bet on them because I was somehow afraid to bet on those games, rather I amended the games and I became the loser because I could not bet on them with my clear eyes.

I agree.If you have not luck by your side you can apply any strategy that you may think it will work for you but when lady luck decides to not knock on your door you are doomed to fail.I have been experiencing this a lot in slot machines where I so call a "strategy" the fact that I double my minimum bet when I reach over 400 spins without getting the bonus round because I think there will be more chances to hit it after such number of spins.Even when this so called strategy works and I get the bonus round with a better bet than the one I played over 400 spins the game to give me empty free spins,free spins without substantial winning and it means that if luck is not by your side you cannot really win in gambling.

Topic: Betting strategy question - page 16. (Read 6114 times)