Betting strategy question - page 13.

klidex

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 16, 2023, 02:14:13 PM

Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

I don't quite agree with your statement. Each of us uses a different strategy in both sports betting and casinos. Think about it - even playing without a strategy is a strategy that ultimately leads to winning or losing. In general, a professional bettor who sticks to his strategy, in the long run will be more productive than a bettor who bets, as he thinks, without any strategy.

In my opinion, it is impossible for gamblers without a strategy and almost all gamblers to get their luck must use their strategy to benefit from every bet.
However, not all gamblers only think about profits but there are also gamblers who bet for fun and they only think about their balance so it doesn't run out quickly and can still be used the next day.
In this case the strategy will definitely be carried out in casinos and in sports betting and that is certain, no gambler will just bet without a strategy base.

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 16, 2023, 02:14:13 PM

Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

I don't quite agree with your statement. Each of us uses a different strategy in both sports betting and casinos. Think about it - even playing without a strategy is a strategy that ultimately leads to winning or losing. In general, a professional bettor who sticks to his strategy, in the long run will be more productive than a bettor who bets, as he thinks, without any strategy.

Whether we are using a strategy or not we can still be making loses that is why winning is not always dependent on the type of strategy we are using but how we are making our bets. Gambling is a bit of competitive and making a winning or consistent winnings could base on luck. If we are lucky enough, we will be making fast profits even though they are not a big as we might need.
There are some gamblers that there strategies are really working for them while others might be struggling to make a small winning to balance the portfolio of loses.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on March 16, 2023, 02:38:04 PM

Quote from: madnessteat on March 16, 2023, 02:14:13 PM

I don't quite agree with your statement. Each of us uses a different strategy in both sports betting and casinos. Think about it - even playing without a strategy is a strategy that ultimately leads to winning or losing. In general, a professional bettor who sticks to his strategy, in the long run will be more productive than a bettor who bets, as he thinks, without any strategy.

You're contradicting yourself a little bit here.
Is playing without a strategy a strategy or not?

And don't conflate strategy with profitability. As mentioned over a million times in this thread already - having a strategy doesn't guarantee profits. In fact, in most cases, it guarantees losses (for classic casino games). With that in mind, I can easily imagine a casual, for-fun gambler outperforming a strategy-focused one in "productivity" (aka losing less money).

Most gamblers that lose are gamblers that apply too much strategy and this is gamblers with low staking strength. Guruz doesn't apply too much strategy, they select a few games and stake a good amount. Gamblers like this don't predict beyond a win, a win or draw (double chance) or a straight draw. And you will see that the fewer the games the fewer the risk, and it works more easily for them than the average gambler with too many predictions and strategies. I think this is where he means, " no strategy is a strategy".

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Quote from: madnessteat on March 16, 2023, 02:14:13 PM

I don't quite agree with your statement. Each of us uses a different strategy in both sports betting and casinos. Think about it - even playing without a strategy is a strategy that ultimately leads to winning or losing. In general, a professional bettor who sticks to his strategy, in the long run will be more productive than a bettor who bets, as he thinks, without any strategy.

You're contradicting yourself a little bit here.
Is playing without strategy a strategy or not?

And don't conflate strategy with profitability. As mentioned over a million times in this thread already - having a strategy doesn't guarantee profits. In fact, in most cases, it guarantees losses (for classic casino games). With that in mind, I can easily imagine a casual, for-fun gambler outperforming a strategy-focused one in "productivity" (aka losing less money).

madnessteat

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Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

I don't quite agree with your statement. Each of us uses a different strategy in both sports betting and casinos. Think about it - even playing without a strategy is a strategy that ultimately leads to winning or losing. In general, a professional bettor who sticks to his strategy, in the long run will be more productive than a bettor who bets, as he thinks, without any strategy.

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Quote from: wiss19 on March 15, 2023, 11:19:02 AM

Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

It's true that most gambling games won't really let a player win based on a strategy that they may have made to beat the house, the house edge also plays a great role in that. Even if you find a way to win some bets but that doesn't really mean that you have become superior over the house and the game can turn very quickly from being in your favor to against you.

But I also believe that sports betting can be played more with mind and strategies than being dependent on luck. If you do proper research and analysis before placing a sports bet, your chances of winning will increase exponentially.

The house will always win from the gamblers who lose. The gambler who loses here means that more gamblers lose their money than gamblers who can get big profits. Indeed some gamblers can earn a lot of money from gambling, and many use strategies, but it will also depend on their luck.

If they are lucky, they don't even need to use strategy in placing bets, which happens in some sports betting. But by using a strategy, whatever the name, someone can win the game and take home the money, while many people lose in one or more gambling games, meaning the casino takes home the money.

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Quote from: piebeyb on March 15, 2023, 11:52:52 AM

in every casino betting game there are usually many names for the strategy, for example the popular martingale and maybe there are others, but for sports betting you don't need such a strategy because it requires luck even if you are an expert at predicting sports. usually what requires luck is gambling such as lotteries or sports betting. that's what I know while playing gambling Wink

Almost everything in life requires some element of "luck". Even going to regular work, you're relying on some luck (or lack of bad luck) to net get struck by the lightning or not get hit by a bus.
Not only you can apply betting strategies to sports betting, but, as the odds are somewhat judgemental and are not purely based on maths, there's a bigger chance that the strategy will be successful, as compared to the classic casino games.

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Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

in every casino betting game there are usually many names for the strategy, for example the popular martingale and maybe there are others, but for sports betting you don't need such a strategy because it requires luck even if you are an expert at predicting sports. usually what requires luck is gambling such as lotteries or sports betting. that's what I know while playing gambling Wink

wiss19

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Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

It's true that most gambling games won't really let a player win based on a strategy that they may have made to beat the house, the house edge also plays a great role in that. Even if you find a way to win some bets but that doesn't really mean that you have become superior over the house and the game can turn very quickly from being in your favor to against you.

But I also believe that sports betting can be played more with mind and strategies than being dependent on luck. If you do proper research and analysis before placing a sports bet, your chances of winning will increase exponentially.

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Quote from: Wakate on March 14, 2023, 06:37:18 PM

Quote from: nullama on March 13, 2023, 07:43:12 PM

Quote from: len01 on March 13, 2023, 08:53:50 AM

~snip~
because luck will come to those who are willing to take risks. in the sense that if luck is waiting for us but don't do anything or don't make any bets, how is it possible that luck will come.

like we have a strategy that we have made but we don't bet anything in our strategy, even though the strategy that is made is luck waiting for us.

Maybe, maybe not.

That's the whole point of "luck", which really is just probabilities.

You can estimate the probabilities of someone winning a game. Then check the payouts. In general, casinos make these calculations very precisely and make sure they always have an advantage.

That's why in the long term the house always wins, because even if someone gets "lucky" and wins big, which is unusual but happens, they will probably continue playing anyway, eventually losing all their winnings.

Casinos will always make money whether we are making money or not. That's not the problem but what we need to consider is how often we can keep winning. There are times when we will have a single winnings with multiple loses so we need to strategise and make sure that our risk to reward ratio is preferable and it will not make us to have multiple loses when we keep getting it wrong. There should be a large gap between our winnings and and loses. Even though the winning is small, it need to have bigger value than the loses.

Proper analysis and good strategy to limit your gambling activities, I like that sentiment in terms of knowing how to count your winning vs your losing activities, in that way you will be able to manifest rewards especially when luck permits you to have a good winning streak, you can quit with a decent amount of profits.

Most of those experienced gamblers understand that a house will always have the upper edge, so in a small possible way,
you should take if opportunity opens for you.

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Quote from: nullama on March 13, 2023, 07:43:12 PM

Quote from: len01 on March 13, 2023, 08:53:50 AM

~snip~
because luck will come to those who are willing to take risks. in the sense that if luck is waiting for us but don't do anything or don't make any bets, how is it possible that luck will come.

like we have a strategy that we have made but we don't bet anything in our strategy, even though the strategy that is made is luck waiting for us.

Maybe, maybe not.

That's the whole point of "luck", which really is just probabilities.

You can estimate the probabilities of someone winning a game. Then check the payouts. In general, casinos make these calculations very precisely and make sure they always have an advantage.

That's why in the long term the house always wins, because even if someone gets "lucky" and wins big, which is unusual but happens, they will probably continue playing anyway, eventually losing all their winnings.

Casinos will always make money whether we are making money or not. That's not the problem but what we need to consider is how often we can keep winning. There are times when we will have a single winnings with multiple loses so we need to strategise and make sure that our risk to reward ratio is preferable and it will not make us to have multiple loses when we keep getting it wrong. There should be a large gap between our winnings and and loses. Even though the winning is small, it need to have bigger value than the loses.

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Quote from: Inwestour on March 14, 2023, 07:07:10 AM

~snip~
The casino will always win - this is a known fact, but there are always a few lucky people who manage to hit the jackpot, without luck it is difficult to do this.

Luck is also needed in betting, but here, in addition to luck, the ability to analyze an event also decides a lot. And I agree that if we do nothing, then it will be very difficult to check how lucky we are. To win the lottery, you must at least buy this lottery.

True.

But the amount of "luck" you need depends on the probabilities of the game.

So, to maximize your chances of getting "lucky", you should for example always buy the lotto tickets from the lotto that has more probabilities to win. Putting it simply in an example, consider the two lottos as the following:

Consider lotto1 as a coin toss. If you bet on a coin toss, you will be expected to win once every two tosses. It will not be exactly that, but in the long term it will be.

Consider lotto2 as a dice roll. So, if you then bet on a dice roll, you have 1 in 6, much worse odds. It would be better to bet on the lotto1 of course (given the same payout).

The thing is that lottos and casino games are designed so that it's not easy to calculate the odds, and they make you think it's easier to win than what it actually is.

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Quote from: minime0105 on March 14, 2023, 02:44:11 PM

Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

Not true, there are plenty of betting/gambling strategies, including martingale, reverse-martingale, card-counting, using kelly criterion etc. The problem is, using strategy doesn't necessarily mean making profit.
The fact that there's (almost) always an element of luck, doesn't mean that all gambling is "pure luck" as you put it. It's all abut trying to find opportunities when the edge is on your side.
Good example is sports betting - to determine odds of an event, bookies have to rely on statistical analysis, and sometimes those could be wrong (e.g. not everything is factored in). So it's possible to spot and take advantage of such opportunities from time to time.

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Betting has no strategy because the more you think you know the more deceitful the odds become in other for your bookies to fail, gambling to my understanding is pure luck because some people can pick games in sports bet to be precise for the first time and win so all is dependent on individual involved. In this game nobody is sure and final outcome most times can not be ascertained.

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Quote from: Wiwo on March 13, 2023, 05:17:48 PM

Quote from: Fredomago on March 13, 2023, 03:55:33 AM

I agree with that, better to analyze and take some risk in hope that there's a good chance that you might win something, I mean, if you analyze the game and you see that there's some chance then why not bother to spare some money on it and see what will be the outcome, though most of the time it will be depending from how a gambler will take it.

If you are willing to gamble with luck, then so be it. Who knows what the future will bring you when luck back you up with your bet, right?

Gambling and Luck are two inseparable terminologies that are closely interrelated in action, whether or no you playing for fun or staking an amount with the target and hope of winning something big ifs important to make an accurate analyses that could aid your winning the games session there by increasing your total balance.

-Risk management is an important aspect in gambling for whatever direction you may want to look at it from.

-Being able to. Make the right decision is what determined the state you will be in at that end of your game session.

Risk management and bankroll management together with skills and luck the chance of making some decent winning is possible, though we all know that gambling most of the time changes the practices of each gambler when they are experiencing red losing streak, aggressiveness to keep trying to bounce back and recover are the killing factors.

But, if you have good risk and bankroll management, the edge is on your side. You can just stop and try your luck the following day instead of pushing yourself and continue to lose.

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Quote from: nullama on March 13, 2023, 07:43:12 PM

That's the whole point of "luck", which really is just probabilities.

You can estimate the probabilities of someone winning a game. Then check the payouts. In general, casinos make these calculations very precisely and make sure they always have an advantage.

That's why in the long term the house always wins, because even if someone gets "lucky" and wins big, which is unusual but happens, they will probably continue playing anyway, eventually losing all their winnings.

The casino will always win - this is a known fact, but there are always a few lucky people who manage to hit the jackpot, without luck it is difficult to do this.

Luck is also needed in betting, but here, in addition to luck, the ability to analyze an event also decides a lot. And I agree that if we do nothing, then it will be very difficult to check how lucky we are. To win the lottery, you must at least buy this lottery.

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Quote from: Wiwo on March 13, 2023, 05:17:48 PM

Gambling and Luck are two inseparable terminologies that are closely interrelated in action, whether or no you playing for fun or staking an amount with the target and hope of winning something big ifs important to make an accurate analyses that could aid your winning the games session there by increasing your total balance.

I myself entered and started to become a gambler because I have a target of profit by risking a certain amount of money to be able to multiply it even more, but on the other hand gambling can also make me feel pleasure that I cannot get anywhere else Entertainment area.
But I'm sure those who start gambling have the same goal as me because there's no way they want to keep spending or losing unlimited amounts of money just for fun.
Even though I am a gambler who chases profits and wins, I myself have a fund limit every time I gamble, in fact I always pay attention to the course of the game over several rounds to be able to come up with a strategy or a special way to get that win.
Because I've been playing carelessly but the successive defeats that I get.

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Quote from: Pierre 2 on March 14, 2023, 05:56:00 AM

Quote from: 348Judah on March 03, 2023, 10:56:00 AM

Have you ever been given a particular strategy to use in gambling which eventually does not work for you and you regret later, that's why we need to think and rethink over any decision we are making before taking further steps of action when it comes to gambling strategies, there are sometimes we may see what others aren't, and that small mistake cab ruine a bet, not everything thing we received should be directly applicable to gambling when we are about taking an action, ours can work and blended up with the ones received from others for complementation.

Some people use very strange methods when they are trying different types of games. Especially in sports betting people develop mathematically favourable methods many times. But in the end even if you pick the best choices around, its all up to humans. I mean there is no strategy that can give you %100 guarenteed bets. %83 chance of losing as OP says isn't exactly valid because you have one take with it. It means if you lose, you can't repeat, so winning chance is somewhat not satisfying mathematically.

The probability of winning which calculated by those geeks that are into numbers but again it is not a 100% winning rate it is just who they are in favour too. I also remember one of my elder relatives regarding the lottery he usually calculate numbers based on history to see what's the next number that show up even if we know it is pure luck again he will calculate it and sometimes win so it is still the same that you have your own strategy but it doesn't mean that you'll be guaranteed to win.

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Quote from: 348Judah on March 03, 2023, 10:56:00 AM

Have you ever been given a particular strategy to use in gambling which eventually does not work for you and you regret later, that's why we need to think and rethink over any decision we are making before taking further steps of action when it comes to gambling strategies, there are sometimes we may see what others aren't, and that small mistake cab ruine a bet, not everything thing we received should be directly applicable to gambling when we are about taking an action, ours can work and blended up with the ones received from others for complementation.

Some people use very strange methods when they are trying different types of games. Especially in sports betting people develop mathematically favourable methods many times. But in the end even if you pick the best choices around, its all up to humans. I mean there is no strategy that can give you %100 guarenteed bets. %83 chance of losing as OP says isn't exactly valid because you have one take with it. It means if you lose, you can't repeat, so winning chance is somewhat not satisfying mathematically.

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Quote from: nullama on March 13, 2023, 07:43:12 PM

Quote from: len01 on March 13, 2023, 08:53:50 AM

~snip~
because luck will come to those who are willing to take risks. in the sense that if luck is waiting for us but don't do anything or don't make any bets, how is it possible that luck will come.

like we have a strategy that we have made but we don't bet anything in our strategy, even though the strategy that is made is luck waiting for us.

Maybe, maybe not.

That's the whole point of "luck", which really is just probabilities.

You can estimate the probabilities of someone winning a game. Then check the payouts. In general, casinos make these calculations very precisely and make sure they always have an advantage.

That's why in the long term the house always wins, because even if someone gets "lucky" and wins big, which is unusual but happens, they will probably continue playing anyway, eventually losing all their winnings.

Luck isn't guaranteed to side on anyone's favor. It can come and happen to you, it might not. The thing here is, you should have so much high hopes in order not for it not to be that painful. Because the moment we expect something, it might not turn out the way we perceived it. Winning isn't guaranteed despite how much intelligent or lucky you are. Although yes, the probability of winning goes higher and higher if one has the skills, knowledge, talent, and luck on his side. But again, there's always room for turn of events even at the very last seconds. So being complacent won't do you any good.

Calculating your chances of winning for me is a smart thing to do, since there's only a certain rate of probability you are going to win or lose. Now, it just depends on how you will execute your gameplay. You can win against the house, but in the end, the house still benefited out of you and other players for engaging you and other gamblers to play and spend.

Topic: Betting strategy question - page 13. (Read 6114 times)