Topic: Betting strategy question - page 2. (Read 6114 times)

Gambling is unpredictable, whether its traditional or sports betting. No amount of study can calm luck's breeze.

Lets look at it from another angle. Isnt every life choice a risk? Arent we all playing the odds based on our information? We make these decisions nonetheless. Knowing the hazards, we gather information, analyse it, and act. I believe that gambling is a bad way to make a living, but I also think analysis is useful in gambling situations. Even if it doesnt win, it changes the game's parameters.

It is impossible to develop winning strategies,personally I have been losing in sport betting and decided to follow some pages where they usually boast that they are in profit overall and placed several bets yesterday night,most of them were lost games despite me betting on the so called favorites,USA lost to Panama in what it was a fixed game most probably as 5-6 is a result we rarely see,Houston Dinamo lost 0-3 and a couple of other games which were favorites and lost their games,this all to show that winning strategies are extremely difficult to develop in betting including sport betting.

even professional gamblers still experience defeat when trying to analyze carefully and bet on the chosen team. on the one hand using the arbitrage strategy on betting maybe someone thinks this is very easy to do but it is very difficult and too big a risk when the sportbook finds out its customers using the arbitrage strategy will immediately be banned from the sportbook and I call this a loss.
but even though luck is still very important here, at least using any strategy can minimize losses so that they are not too big.

Analysis in gambling only works for some parts of gambling such as sports betting and arbitrage betting, etc., and even those who do analysis and gamble on sports betting don't win all the time because the luck factor somehow still remains and you can't just win based on your analysis because things can turn against you unexpectedly sometimes and you will be surprised to see a team that was guaranteed to win a match will lose it miserably.

So analysis or sports betting don't guarantee that you will get profits everyday, so any kind of gambling it is, it's never going to be a source of income for you because you might win for some days but you will eventually start losing and then you will lose everything that you've won so far.

You are right, he made a mistake by generalizing his statement., it is true, not all gamblers will lose in the long term, there are many gamblers who (like you said) their ability to correctly predict the outcome of several games, have put them on the winning side long term, that is, theyve sat, watched, studied, read, analyzed games for several years and now, have become so good that out of 10 games they bet on, they probably might just be losing like 2 or 3 games, the rest is a win for them..

Though the number of gambler on the above category is not very many, as compared to those who will lose on the long terms,, but still  a prove that some gamblers still win long term.

I'm not advocating for throwing all the money into one pot and going all in on one thing. Of course you need to budget for all life expenses and carefully plan to achieve your financial goals.
Personally, I do have multiple special purpose reserves (house repairs, holiday fund, car maintenance fund etc) and diversify my investments. But at the same time, I'm looking at it as one big fund and periodically would evaluate it to make sure I manage it in the most optimal way (to the best of my abilities). For example, I have separate funds for investing, but that doesn't mean I cannot also invest money held as a house repair fund. It doesn't make sense to keep it on a low-interest bank account and watch it get eaten by high inflation.

Back to the subject of gambling - what does it even mean to have your money split as "your own budget" and "the gaming budget"? Obviously your gaming budget should be a part of your own budget, unless you're gambling with other people's money. And what's the point of having a hard split (other than to make yourself feel better)? If your gaming budget is low or drained, but you spot an amazing betting opportunity - are you not going to take it (provided you have other funds and can afford to risk them)? Or if your gaming budget grows big (by luck) and you have a great investment opportunity - are you not going to take it just because you earmarked that money for gambling?

I don't agree with your statement. In my opinion, only some gamblers whose ratio of losses is greater than their ratio of wins, because gambling is not only a matter of luck, but a matter of analysis and time. Some gamblers use analysis on their games and this is what makes them win and even make gambling their main source of income, because they already know the flow of the game.

It's true that it is an addiction and everyone who gambles cannot escape addiction, it's just that we don't know when we will truly become gambling addicts if we don't immediately have boundaries and learn to cultivate self-control.
Everyone's abilities are different but if it is based on determination and intention then nothing is impossible.
At first I couldn't believe it and doubted I could do it, but after giving it a try and adding a great deal of desire, I have everything now.
So the most effective and useful strategy is to be able to limit yourself in all forms of gambling.

Yeah right, from that logic of yours separating your funds is the best way to also find the balance with your money,
if you split things the right way, you'll be able to keep you safe from losing a lot.

With the portion where the money is allocated for gaming/gambling, you can start any strategy that you think will give you benefits.

Along the way, you are not worried about losing more money as you already allocated enough portion and not
to let anything to exceed from it.

I am of the opinion that all budgets should be separated, your business budget, your own budget and of course the gaming budget should be separate. Only in this way will you be able to properly analyze what you spend where. And if you mix everything into one budget, then it will be very difficult to figure it out, and you will have more opportunities to lose more money if you do not limit yourself in this, just for gambling.

The important thing is not to be greedy when we have managed to bet enough and it's better to stop immediately before the defeat comes on the next bet. It also includes good self-control so that after winning several times, we immediately stop and don't risk another defeat. And even though we know we can pick a team in another game, we're not trying to chase bigger wins because we've already had wins. There is still tomorrow to bet on; who knows, our chances of winning will be even greater than today.

Your betting approach is reliable, but losses are constantly waiting to derail our plans, which we will make certain never happens. In the preceding example, $50 gains can result in $20 profits, which will be reinvested into gambling in order to obtain additional profits. The key to excellence is always self-control and ambitious goals. We must be patient in our desires, taking things one step at a time. As we are confident in our forecasts, let us hope that the club does not disappoint us with defeats. When it comes to losing, even the best clubs will lose on that given day, so constantly prepare your mind to confront anything.

There shouldn't really be any distinction between the capital and the current profits (from gambling or other). It all should be viewed as one pool of funds.
I think the best way in making financial decisions would be to develop an almost autistic approach when the past (so i.e. the origins of the funds) is irrelevant and you only consider two things: 1) how much funds have I got available; and 2) what's the best way to do with it (invest, spend, gamble etc).

I can't avoid sometimes using the martingale strategy, because it's a very reckless strategy, but I only use it twice, and if I see that I lose I don't use it anymore and I change strategy, two times for me is the maximum number because that's how I feel I realize if the strategy I use is correct or not, then I change it completely, I don't focus on what I'm losing, my mind tries to change the thought to focus only on the logic of the game, for example in the dice, I see If what falls is eI can't help but sometimes use the martingale strategy, because it's a very reckless strategy, but I only use it twice, and if I see that I lose I don't use it anymore and I change the strategy, twice for me is the maximum number because that's how I feel I realize if the strategy I use is correct or not, then I change it completely, I don't focus on what I'm losing, my mind tries to change the thinking to focus only on the logic of the game, for example on dice, I see if what falls is even, odd even, and if I change, or if the number is higher or lower, never for the Hi, the Low, because that way I lost faster.

As well as this there are many more strategies, I have tried with a 3x and 5x multiplier and with a 7x things get more complicated, you must have a large balance to endure the number of losses but it is something very reckless, nothing adequate For the faint of heart, when you win once you have to stay quiet, because things are strong.en, odd even, and if I change, or if the number is higher or lower, never for the Hi, the Low, because that is how I lost faster.

Yet, statistics seem to suggest the lines blur...somewhat! Those who think they can "beat the system"... well, statistically speaking, it's likely they're fooling themselves. Even the most advanced algorithms and systems are no match for the unpredictability inherent in gambling. In regards to your point about the "occasional gambler", I'd argue the "imperceptibility" of their transition into a problematic habit could be due to the nature of gambling itself. It's designed to be enjoyable, social even, which ironically can mask the potential harm. You're right that for those placing a bet on their favourite team, deep analysis of odds might be the last thing on their minds. Yet, it's precisely this casual attitude that can create a slippery slope. The danger is, when does this "occasional wager" shift from being a source of excitement to a financial drain or worse, an addiction?

That is exactly the thing, even if we say that we only gamble our profits and didn't include our capital, we are not taking things seriously because we do know that we still have the capital left and thought that it's not really a big deal if we lose this next bet or not. But in reality, that was already a wrong mindset as we won't get to where we are planning if we are thinking about it, instead we should learn from it and be mindful that the approach wasn't successful, so it's time to change it as well as the mindset.

I think what he means, is that we will take a break first. I tried it and I can see that I'm doing well than if I gamble all my balance all the way. The catch is, I can only do this if I am lucky to win a nice amount but if my sessions starts as a loss, I can't help but to just continue. My balance was only small anyway so I think it's useless if I will stop.

Other than hoping for a good luck, people also play for a good time. For those who play the other way, odds are important for them. It would be better for a casino to be transparent and display them and it's better to be fair or have a small odds only because those who play for profit will always consider this.

I understand where you're coming from and can relate to that, as I was using a similar tactic back in the day. But the truth is, this is a good example of how to NOT approach gambling. As you yourself said, this approach would not make you feel like losing - meaning it's based on emotions and feelings.
What you should be aiming at, is an emotionless, cold-calculated approach, i.e. it doesn't matter if that $20 was previously won, earned, or if your grandma gave it to you, that's completely irrelevant.

I would imagine that the portion of gamblers who are aiming for constant profits or even are hoping to make a living out of it is probably very small. Those who do, will likely have some idea of how can they "beat the system" and would not rely solely on luck. For the rest of the gamblers, they're probably thinking of themselves as occasional gamblers, and as such would not even bother to even think about long-term consequences or try to come up with some sort of winning strategy. But what starts as a fun, once-in-a-while activity, can imperceptibly turn into a dangerous and financially-draining habit.
But yeah, if one wants to place an occasional wager on their favourite team just to get more kicks out of watching a game, then they won't be diving deep into analysing odds etc