Betting strategy question - page 6. | Bitcointalksearch.org

nullama

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Quote from: pawel7777 on May 11, 2023, 04:14:52 PM

~snip~
Good point. But as for believing in superstitions, I think, to a large degree, it's a choice rather than anything else. It's a comfortable feeling to believe that certain behaviour or items can give you an edge in life by bringing good luck. Or it's convenient to shift the blame/responsibility to bad luck, i.e. why blame yourself and your crappy driving for crashing the car when you could blame some black cat or Friday 13th?

Yeah, that might be.

But I believe that you are responsible of everything that happens to you, good or bad. That way at least you have a chance to change your life.

If you blame things on others or in "god's acts", etc, then you can't change those things at all.

I much prefer getting all the blame, because it comes with the ability to change.

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Quote from: nullama on May 09, 2023, 08:06:28 PM

For example, if you happen to experience two rare independent events at the same time, your brain will think they are correlated somehow even though it was just a coincidence. This explains some of the "bad luck" tales like a black cat crossing or superstitions in general. The brain thinks "Something happened at the same time that something bad happened, so they must be correlated", but it's just a coincidence.

Good point. But as for believing in superstitions, I think, to a large degree, it's a choice rather than anything else. It's a comfortable feeling to believe that certain behaviour or items can give you an edge in life by bringing good luck. Or it's convenient to shift the blame/responsibility to bad luck, i.e. why blame yourself and your crappy driving for crashing the car when you could blame some black cat or Friday 13th?

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Quote from: nullama on May 09, 2023, 08:06:28 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on May 09, 2023, 06:00:52 PM

~snip~
Unfortunately, our brains are wired in a way that if you've took some action and got desired result (positive feedback loop), you'll feel the urge to do it again. So if someone had the discipline to stop betting in the right time and walked away with profit - they're likely to return and try to repeat that success.
Gambling perfectly exploits psychological flaws.

That is true.

Our brains are always trying to explain things however they can, even if it doesn't make sense.

For example, if you happen to experience two rare independent events at the same time, your brain will think they are correlated somehow even though it was just a coincidence. This explains some of the "bad luck" tales like a black cat crossing or superstitions in general. The brain thinks "Something happened at the same time that something bad happened, so they must be correlated", but it's just a coincidence.

I agree to that, thinking that it is related but in reality it was just a coincidence which some of the people especially gamblers are believing, there's always a side inside our brains who keep trying to relate something even the chances is really next to impossible, both good and bad luck as long as it can find something your brain will push it and will try to explain and link the situations.

nullama

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Quote from: pawel7777 on May 09, 2023, 06:00:52 PM

~snip~
Unfortunately, our brains are wired in a way that if you've took some action and got desired result (positive feedback loop), you'll feel the urge to do it again. So if someone had the discipline to stop betting in the right time and walked away with profit - they're likely to return and try to repeat that success.
Gambling perfectly exploits psychological flaws.

That is true.

Our brains are always trying to explain things however they can, even if it doesn't make sense.

For example, if you happen to experience two rare independent events at the same time, your brain will think they are correlated somehow even though it was just a coincidence. This explains some of the "bad luck" tales like a black cat crossing or superstitions in general. The brain thinks "Something happened at the same time that something bad happened, so they must be correlated", but it's just a coincidence.

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Quote from: nullama on May 08, 2023, 09:11:51 PM

Basically if you want to not lose money gambling you need to either never gamble, or stop gambling once you have won more than what you have gambled so far.

Unfortunately, our brains are wired in a way that if you've took some action and got desired result (positive feedback loop), you'll feel the urge to do it again. So if someone had the discipline to stop betting in the right time and walked away with profit - they're likely to return and try to repeat that success.
Gambling perfectly exploits psychological flaws.

nullama

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Quote from: carlisle1 on May 08, 2023, 02:17:09 PM

~snip~
Yup, nothing but the discipline that you will go to implement whatever strategy you are planning to use while playing,
both flat and martingale strategy have good potential outcome if you can stop at the right time.

It's more on your self-control, both winning or losing. You should have set the limitation that you will use to make sure that you will not be overstaying inside the house.

If you can do that, the chance is good for you to earn some decent amount out from your gambling.

Basically if you want to not lose money gambling you need to either never gamble, or stop gambling once you have won more than what you have gambled so far.

The problem is that the expected return is negative so most of the time you will continue going down until you lose it all.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on May 08, 2023, 07:56:08 AM

Quote from: Tumanggor on May 07, 2023, 08:14:31 AM

the martingale strategy really sucks, I'm better off using the flat betting strategy in all of my bets, I prioritize long-term profits rather than dreaming of big profits in a short time

That's a bit of a weird statement. Both strategies (flat bets and martingale) have exactly the same odds and in the long-run, your net result (profit or loss) should be exactly the same in both cases.
The only difference is psychological and depends on your discipline, e.g. in flat betting, it might be easier to stop and accept the loss.

Yup, nothing but the discipline that you will go to implement whatever strategy you are planning to use while playing,
both flat and martingale strategy have good potential outcome if you can stop at the right time.

It's more on your self-control, both winning or losing. You should have set the limitation that you will use to make sure that you will not be overstaying inside the house.

If you can do that, the chance is good for you to earn some decent amount out from your gambling.

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Quote from: Tumanggor on May 07, 2023, 08:14:31 AM

the martingale strategy really sucks, I'm better off using the flat betting strategy in all of my bets, I prioritize long-term profits rather than dreaming of big profits in a short time

That's a bit of a weird statement. Both strategies (flat bets and martingale) have exactly the same odds and in the long-run, your net result (profit or loss) should be exactly the same in both cases.
The only difference is psychological and depends on your discipline, e.g. in flat betting, it might be easier to stop and accept the loss.

nullama

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Quote from: Tumanggor on May 07, 2023, 08:14:31 AM

~snip~
the martingale strategy really sucks, I'm better off using the flat betting strategy in all of my bets, I prioritize long-term profits rather than dreaming of big profits in a short time

I've used the martingale strategy but in the end I had to sell all the items I owned, that's really a strategy that doesn't suit me

If by chance you would have been successful following Martingale, then the strategy would not have sucked?

In the end you can only maximize your chances, but in a casino your odds are always going to be lower than the house.

This means that no matter what strategy you use, if you keep playing, you will lose all your money. It's math, no matter how good the casinos try to change your perception.

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Quote from: abel1337 on May 07, 2023, 08:35:40 AM

Martingale is not that effective if you are just using it as a martingale strategy itself. I'm using that strategy but I'm mixing it with other strategy that I think is effective in winning. I believe martingale is a technique that can give you profit long term and not on a short amount of time. Of course it will depend on your base bet on how much profit you will earn but yeah I can consider it as slow profit technique. Also always remember about the house edge which keeps this strategy hard to use, You will be hit by the house edge the longer you stay in the casino so be just be careful on using it. It's not a technique for everyone.

Agree, using only the martingale technique alone is just a means of prolonging your illusion and losing in seconds what took hours to achieve.
You need to know how to manage your funds very well, the risks of the game and know when to stop.

However, instead of the Martingale I recommend you to use another strategy (which also shouldn't be used alone)... it's Fibonacci, where the next bet must always be equal to the sum of the last two previous ones (1 – 1 – 2 – 3 – 5, and so on).

This means that the method of betting on a roulette table with the Fibonacci technique will be to gradually increase the amount from round to round, following the sequence. The objective is to keep a close eye on gains and losses, to recover from losses little by little and to know when you are ahead.

The benefit of this method is that it is simple to apply and involves less risk than other systems, as the raise is less aggressive.

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Quote from: Tumanggor on May 07, 2023, 08:14:31 AM

Quote from: Strongkored on April 19, 2023, 07:45:54 AM

If we are still talking about the martingale strategy, even by preparing large capital and starting with even the smallest betting basis, it will never guarantee that it will continue to produce positive results because the casino also has a max bet, which will be a barrier for any gambler to continue using his money until he returns get the win.
So keep on controlling our bankroll properly and get rid of the thought that there will be a strategy that is sure to give regular wins without ever losing so that we can make our money continue to grow because that never exists in gambling.

the martingale strategy really sucks, I'm better off using the flat betting strategy in all of my bets, I prioritize long-term profits rather than dreaming of big profits in a short time

I've used the martingale strategy but in the end I had to sell all the items I owned, that's really a strategy that doesn't suit me

Martingale is not that effective if you are just using it as a martingale strategy itself. I'm using that strategy but I'm mixing it with other strategy that I think is effective in winning. I believe martingale is a technique that can give you profit long term and not on a short amount of time. Of course it will depend on your base bet on how much profit you will earn but yeah I can consider it as slow profit technique. Also always remember about the house edge which keeps this strategy hard to use, You will be hit by the house edge the longer you stay in the casino so be just be careful on using it. It's not a technique for everyone.

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Quote from: Strongkored on April 19, 2023, 07:45:54 AM

If we are still talking about the martingale strategy, even by preparing large capital and starting with even the smallest betting basis, it will never guarantee that it will continue to produce positive results because the casino also has a max bet, which will be a barrier for any gambler to continue using his money until he returns get the win.
So keep on controlling our bankroll properly and get rid of the thought that there will be a strategy that is sure to give regular wins without ever losing so that we can make our money continue to grow because that never exists in gambling.

the martingale strategy really sucks, I'm better off using the flat betting strategy in all of my bets, I prioritize long-term profits rather than dreaming of big profits in a short time

I've used the martingale strategy but in the end I had to sell all the items I owned, that's really a strategy that doesn't suit me

nullama

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Quote from: mindrust on April 19, 2023, 02:10:39 AM

~snip~
There is no winning unless you make more money than what you wagered. It is simple math. If a gambler is stupid enough to fall for this trick, then it is only a matter of time before he loses everything he has. It is because a person that stupid can easily believe lots of other bullshit. I personally blame the public schools for this. Whatever education we are getting for cheap or free is crap. We need to smarten up, fast.

I agree with the point that winning only occurs when you end up with more money than before starting gambling.

The problem is that many gamblers forget about their loses and only consider their winnings. So, in their minds they won, but in reality the casino got their money.

Casinos have designed these games in a way so that the gamblers have the feeling of winning without actually winning.

It's all about taping into the addictive parts of the brain, they just trigger those mechanisms, and get paid for it.

I wouldn't say gamblers are stupid, just maybe naive.

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Quote from: Fredomago on May 04, 2023, 04:01:57 AM

It's something that we really expect to some gamblers, most of the time those experienced gamblers have this mentality, they are more focus on how they can execute patterns and strategy that gives them a small edge to win against the house, most of those gamblers understand the value of self-control.

Allowing yourself to engage with the game, you think you understand well and play with a focus that you may execute your form strategy with the goal of winning.

A good catch with those experienced gamblers is that they have a good practice to accept defeats, and they understand that there's nothing they can do if luck is not around to back them up.

I don't think you have to be "experienced" to be profit-oriented. There's no reason you can't start your gambling experience with the right attitude, and only go for it if you see a chance of making a profit and not bother to gamble at all when you know the odds/edge is not in your favour.
On the flip-side, we have tons of "experienced gamblers who keep losing money for years or decades without learning a lesson.
mindset > experience

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Quote from: pawel7777 on May 03, 2023, 04:47:53 PM

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on April 25, 2023, 09:44:52 PM

Yes, I agree with what you say, but you have to find a way to play more calmly without fear and that the emotions are different, that the feeling of being ousted or bankrupt is not in the emotion, because here it is that shows many players that they can lose what they have, they have no savings and money that can be used for their benefit and that cannot be lost,when a player has money willing to lose, he plays calmly without worry and that is where the enjoyment is the maximum, if you lose you don't worry, but if you win I think the emotion is much greater.

For some reason you reminded me of this clip:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UXpgA7XG7xc

I don't have much sympathy for that guy and I can't see how can playing blackjack be profitable in the long-run, but I like his approach here.
Screw emotions and fun, have a clear goal, plan to achieve it, and aim to execute it. Looking for fun in a casino is just sad. There are plenty of wholesome ways to have fun without losing your hard-earned money to people who woo you with drinks and flashy lights.

It's something that we really expect to some gamblers, most of the time those experienced gamblers have this mentality, they are more focus on how they can execute patterns and strategy that gives them a small edge to win against the house, most of those gamblers understand the value of self-control.

Allowing yourself to engage with the game, you think you understand well and play with a focus that you may execute your form strategy with the goal of winning.

A good catch with those experienced gamblers is that they have a good practice to accept defeats, and they understand that there's nothing they can do if luck is not around to back them up.

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on April 25, 2023, 09:44:52 PM

Yes, I agree with what you say, but you have to find a way to play more calmly without fear and that the emotions are different, that the feeling of being ousted or bankrupt is not in the emotion, because here it is that shows many players that they can lose what they have, they have no savings and money that can be used for their benefit and that cannot be lost,when a player has money willing to lose, he plays calmly without worry and that is where the enjoyment is the maximum, if you lose you don't worry, but if you win I think the emotion is much greater.

For some reason you reminded me of this clip:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UXpgA7XG7xc

I don't have much sympathy for that guy and I can't see how can playing blackjack be profitable in the long-run, but I like his approach here.
Screw emotions and fun, have a clear goal, plan to achieve it, and aim to execute it. Looking for fun in a casino is just sad. There are plenty of wholesome ways to have fun without losing your hard-earned money to people who woo you with drinks and flashy lights.

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Quote from: Fredomago on April 09, 2023, 07:10:23 AM

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on April 08, 2023, 03:19:18 PM

Quote from: nullama on March 25, 2023, 07:07:02 PM

Quote from: Betwrong on March 25, 2023, 10:05:16 AM

~snip~
In purely luck-based games(like the game in the OP, btw) it doesn't matter whether your emotions envolved, or it's "rational" judgment or a clouded one. It all depends on luck. Period.

A small correction. The above statement is true if you want to earn money through gambling. If your goal is to have fun, then, of course, it is more rational to not bet all your balance at once, but make smaller bets to last longer.

Yeah, it's all just luck, but you can help your luck by playing games that have more probabilities of you winning than others.

It's all math in the end, luck can be helped with it.

I think that emotions are involved in every game, and it cannot be avoided, unless the person playing is a bot, and that is something I rule out, because we all like to play and enjoy, but when talking about emotions, one may think that you have to control them, but it's something too difficult, if there are people who just because of their emotions give them a high tension and just because they can't control their emotions, now in the game where everything is so busy it's something very different but it has a Same effect, only that in the game things go to another level because it is money That is involved.

It's money and the fear of losing it each time you play/bet really affects your emotions, different reaction from both winnings and losing streaks, if you can't control that emotions even you have a good understanding with mathematically probabilities and some luck behind you, you can still lose a lot, worse, you can lose all your bankrolls with a small mistake in following your emotions.

You need to work everything together to enjoy and yet to gain some benefits during your stay inside the house.

Yes, I agree with what you say, but you have to find a way to play more calmly without fear and that the emotions are different, that the feeling of being ousted or bankrupt is not in the emotion, because here it is that shows many players that they can lose what they have, they have no savings and money that can be used for their benefit and that cannot be lost,when a player has money willing to lose, he plays calmly without worry and that is where the enjoyment is the maximum, if you lose you don't worry, but if you win I think the emotion is much greater.

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Quote from: Strongkored on April 19, 2023, 07:45:54 AM

Quote from: len01 on April 19, 2023, 02:35:50 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on April 19, 2023, 12:17:59 AM

It's a mindset that most of the time lead the gambler to lose everything, thinking that the bigger the bankroll the better chance of winning but in reality without good control of your capital, the chance of losing everything is possible, betting strategy is more on how you handle all the emotions and how you practice all your game plan, executing your plans is very important and not to allow any emotions as it can take you to wrong decision making.

the mindset of using a large bankroll is of course that gamblers will also increase the number of bets which makes the bankroll run out quickly.
I mean when a gambler uses a small bankroll say $ 100 and uses a minimum bet of $ 0.1 it will definitely last longer on each bet to get a lucky chance.
but when a gambler uses a large bankroll, for example $ 5000 but with a bet amount of $ 100-$ 200 it will run out faster. because a big bankroll definitely has the mindset to win big with big bets too.
and as far as I know, the faster the bankroll runs out, the more difficult it is to manage our bankroll, the more difficult it will be to find opportunities for luck.

so a good strategy is actually a strategy that can manage our finances in gambling so that it doesn't quickly deplete our bankroll and of course we have to control all emotions to stick to the minimum bet that can be enjoyed by each of our betting strategies.

If we are still talking about the martingale strategy, even by preparing large capital and starting with even the smallest betting basis, it will never guarantee that it will continue to produce positive results because the casino also has a max bet, which will be a barrier for any gambler to continue using his money until he returns get the win.
So keep on controlling our bankroll properly and get rid of the thought that there will be a strategy that is sure to give regular wins without ever losing so that we can make our money continue to grow because that never exists in gambling.

Valid point! There's no guarantee in each strategy that we will use, we are inside gambling and the best practice is to know how to manage your bankroll, setting up expectations from both sides and limit yourself not to exceed will be your good strategy to avoid losing a lot, if you win and you manage to pause for a while for sure you will feel that satisfaction, same deal if you lose and pause for a while, it will give you enough time to rest for a better fresh mindsets when you attempt to play again.

It's about how to properly manage your bankroll and stay with what you plan, strategy to me that might work to avoid losing a lot of money while inside gambling.

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Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 06:44:44 PM

Hypothetical scenario:

You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.

1 - will you take that bet?

Definitely I would take this bet, since the winning % is double of what it should be normally, and you can't find that in any gambling site. However your chances isn't that high to win but still the profit looks really interesting if you predict it well. I would say anyone would take the bet if he/she have the money to put it in.

Quote from: pawel7777 on December 24, 2022, 06:44:44 PM

2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?
~snip~

I would consider putting 10% of my available funds into this bet as a one-time opportunity that may not present itself again. While I understand there are risks involved, I view it as a good and unique experience and will not regret the outcome, regardless of whether it is positive or negative.

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Quote from: darewaller on April 20, 2023, 10:03:10 AM

Quote from: len01 on April 19, 2023, 02:35:50 AM

Quote from: Fredomago on April 19, 2023, 12:17:59 AM

It's a mindset that most of the time lead the gambler to lose everything, thinking that the bigger the bankroll the better chance of winning but in reality without good control of your capital, the chance of losing everything is possible, betting strategy is more on how you handle all the emotions and how you practice all your game plan, executing your plans is very important and not to allow any emotions as it can take you to wrong decision making.

the mindset of using a large bankroll is of course that gamblers will also increase the number of bets which makes the bankroll run out quickly.
I mean when a gambler uses a small bankroll say $ 100 and uses a minimum bet of $ 0.1 it will definitely last longer on each bet to get a lucky chance.
but when a gambler uses a large bankroll, for example $ 5000 but with a bet amount of $ 100-$ 200 it will run out faster. because a big bankroll definitely has the mindset to win big with big bets too.
and as far as I know, the faster the bankroll runs out, the more difficult it is to manage our bankroll, the more difficult it will be to find opportunities for luck.

Increasing the number of bets does not make the bankroll run out quickly but can actually make your bankroll last longer because you are budgeting it to be able to make more bets. The one that can make a bankroll deplete quickly is if you are betting in bigger portions but this can also happen if you have a bigger bankroll.

The explanation is because you are confident, thinking you still have more left even if you lose but you will only be shocked once there is only a small amount left in your balance. Another explanation is we are prone to rage betting once our early bets won't hit but we all can avoid it if we only have a minimal bankroll.

In the world of gambling every we put our bet there's only two outcomes. One is we will win and have a chance to double our bet or event triple if we have our luck in our side. Even though the amount of bets are small or big and we will win. But if we are in our unlucky days then we will loss in our bet even if how much we bet in small amount or in a big amounts of bets. But if from small bet to became bigger then that's probably okay as long as we have enough money.

Topic: Betting strategy question - page 6. (Read 6040 times)