Topic: Bitcoin and it's 4 Year-Cycle - page 2. (Read 1003 times)

What worked in the past halving might not be realistic today, because I believe that the adoption of bitcoin has increased significantly, compered to the previous halvings and ATH. So the chart might calculate a new direction this time around by charting a new unpredictable angle from the previous ones.

I however see the optimism everywhere that next year's halving will happen, it doesn't matter the month. The chart is helpful to pinpoint a particular time of halving, but my point is that even if it's prediction is not accurate this time, we're still pretty sure of an ATH, and for me that's the beauty, after all the predictions from different perspectives, we're going to have a bull run.

I haven’t come across a post or chart that have explained bitcoin cycle so simple like this, with this I have gotten to see in this post, I will be rest assured that the next bitcoin all time high will be in the next two years and not the year of halving. This will give me a lower expectation value for what I’m anticipating for the next bull run reaching a new all time high.

Bitcoin completed last ATHs according to four year cycle but fear to invest as we think next four year cycle may not complete. Because Bitcoin never guarantees anything. How much you can achieve from Bitcoin depends on your analysis skills. That's why everyone knows about Bitcoin's 4 year circle but can't take it seriously. There is not much time left before the next cycle takes place but we can see Bitcoin starting to pump up a bit.  So we can hope that maybe this time also such four years cycle can be successfully conducted

I think you have misunderstood my post because I am saying the same thing as you.
All I said was that bitcoin will surely cross the ATH again and set a new ATH but we cannot guarantee the timing.
I mean the next ATH might cross the 4 year cycle and so the 4 year cycle is not necessarily accurate.
The ATH will be crossed but nobody can accurately predict the price of bitcoin.

I find it funny that some people on here still don't think the 4 year cycle is real haha. To anyone unsure, yes we are heading into a bull market. Bitcoin will pass its $69k ATH, probably towards the end of 2024 or early 2025, and then it will go much higher from there, peaking at some point in 2025, probably the second half of the year, before starting the next big crash.

Sure eventually the cycle will diminish and go away, but I think we're still a few cycles away from that happening. As long as there are tons of people and the mainstream media who write Bitcoin off every bear market as the bubble having finally popped and its only going to go down for now on, there are going to be tons of people suddenly shocked that bitcoin is still alive each post-halving once they hear about it going back to and passing the old ATH. And that shocking realization will always bring in lots of new money.

Only way these cycles stop is once bitcoin is mature, which is going to take people actually being educated on Bitcoin enough to not FOMO in post-halving, and not FUD out post-post-halving haha. Until the masses get educated enough to view Bitcoin as simply a great long term investment that is going to be the future of money, they are going to keep falling for the boom bust cycle and therefore perpetuating it. My guess is by the late 2030s the 4 year cycle will disintegrate so no more giant bull runs nor giant crashes. And it'll get their gradually, but it'll probably take that long before we stop seeing these large post-halving bull markets. Bitcoin will settle into a mostly upwards continual chop instead of the massive bull/bear 4 year cycle. But no reason to worry about anything right now except enjoying the 4 year cycle and getting rich off it.

Based on past history, the four year cycle has always provided excitement for investors who are able to hold Bitcoin or who buy when prices are cheap. It should be emphasized that there is no right time to buy Bitcoin because the price continues to fluctuate. Indeed, there is no guarantee that this will happen in the future, because something that has not happened is very difficult to predict with certainty.
The increasingly widespread adoption of Bitcoin means that demand in the market will continue to increase, even though there are negative issues deliberately created by parties who are not happy with the presence of Bitcoin, but it will not make Bitcoin collapse because the level of public interest in Bitcoin is increasing.
Many people assume this, but every time the four-year cycle occurs, some people feel regret because they didn't have time to buy when the price was cheap.

Even though they already know that bitcoin always has a 4-year cycle, those who fail are unable to hold their patience for 4 years or they may be consumed by negative issues that result in selling halfway through and as a result do not benefit more.

If you think you don't guarantee something similar in the future then don't say bitcoin ATH again, it's the same as you don't believe in the future and doubt it even though there is no guarantee whatsoever but we believe that it will happen again in the future.

About the right time we never know for sure whether it's the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025 we can't guess from now on, now we just need to hold on until that time.

The psychology of market cycles plays a crucial role in all markets, including the cryptocurrency market. Human behavior and emotions significantly influence market movements, creating recurring patterns of booms and busts. Understanding these psychological factors is a big help for investors to make informed decisions and navigate the unpredictable nature of markets.

There are two primary emotions that drive market cycles; Fear and greed. Investors are driven by greed, when positive sentiment prevails, leading to rising prices. Conversely, when fear takes hold, investors panic and sell, causing prices to plummet and a bear market to emerge. These emotional swings are often exaggerated in the cryptocurrencies market due to its relatively young age and lack of regulation. The absence of intrinsic value for many cryptocurrencies makes them more susceptible to speculation and hype, further amplifying the impact of psychological factors. Understanding these psychological biases and their influence on market cycles is essential for investors to make rational decisions. By acknowledging their own emotional tendencies and recognizing the broader psychological forces at play, investors can better position themselves to navigate the ups and downs of the market.

Bitcoin's 4 year cycle is very true and has happened a few times before but no one knows when it will happen.  Of course Bitcoin can help people get rich in the long run. Many people know and believe in the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin but fail to hold long term because they panic too much. And they don't have huge money that they can talk about their investments. But those who have a lot of money invest in Bitcoin for long term and they get a lot of profit.  This is why the saying goes that the rich get richer and the poor stay poorer

If it would have been this easy then everyone would be rich by now. Many people know about the 4 year cycle but fail to buy and sell at the right time.
The 4 year cycle would have worked in the past but it does not guarantee that the same would happen in the future.
Although I beleive that bitcoin will break it's ATH again but I don't know if it's gonna happen in 2025 or earlier/later.
I just beleive it will happen and keep happening but the timelines cannot be predicted accurately.

Op is just an ordinary person like you and most other users on the forum. Op tried to share a chart or the four-year cycle experienced by Bitcoin, no one can determine where Bitcoin will go next because the price is very volatile. Price changes are very fast because they are triggered by market sentiment, so at any given time the market price may be much higher and fall to its lowest point. So, if you still doubt the Bitcoin price movement cycle that occurs every four years like the chart in Op, you can ignore it and wait until the ship leaves while you don't load anything on it.

Ah, that's right, even people who bought BTC in 2021 where Bitcoin was priced at just 50K to this day have not been able to recover their finances, just words and need extra patience to reach that new ATH.

The 4 year cycle is eagerly awaited by investors and even everyone who owns Bitcoin itself,
but people who don't understand how the crypto market works won't believe this cycle,
by looking at the current market conditions the new ATH will not exceed 60k for my personal prediction (only my prediction)

It's going to be a sweet time if we're going to see ATH after halving. There isn't enough confidence in the market or else it's value would've increased more but if ppl buy bitcoin because of FOMO they're risking their money. There isn't a guarantee we're going to see ATH soon.

I think that the four year cycle effect will be ending ,but that it did and still does exist.

The rewards half every four years. Thus the so called four year cycle.

But the % of fees increase every four years and this is not looked at as much as we should.

what were average fees per block when rewards were 50 coins. well under 1 coin per a btc
what were average fees per block when rewards were 25 coins. some what under a btc
what were average fees per block when rewards were 12.5 coins some times over a btc
what were average fees per block when rewards are 6.25 coins some times  over 3 btc

what will average fees per block be when rewards are 3.125 coins if it is sometime over three we are 1-1

or 50-50 percent

and we were 2-1 or 66.6-33.3 percent

and back in the day we were once 50-1 or 98-2 percent

so the cycle from 2024-2028 may be the last of the four year cycles.

in which actual reward- fees is 50-50

I am thinking in 2028-2032 it will be 1.5625 reward and some times 3 or 4 coins fees.

They must be in the market a long time to understand its mechanism, cycles and it will be their own experience that is different than what they can learn from textbook or psychological chart of market cycles.

The psychology of market cycles is most important and it is true not only in cryptocurrency market but for all market types. Because basically people don't change themselves and human instinct is generally the same if you count how the majority of market participants behave in one market.

Market makers therefore, take advantage of it to manipulate the crowd with their fake technical indicator movements and direct market to a direction they want. When a market participant understands psychological cycle, it's better to have good control against FOMO and panic, then more easily gain success in either investment or trading. Trading is more risky than investment and it's harder to gain profit in a long run as well.

very nice and informative picture from you. I hope it happens exactly like this, or even a few days earlier. my estimate for the ATH is more likely the end of 2024, but we'll see.

I will keep an eye on this post. Fingers crosses !!!

Best regards
Willi

I don't know what's going to make bitcoin lose value except dumping by whales or FUD. If one group's going to dump their bitcoins it's setting a pattern for other ppl to sell so it's going make bitcoin lose value. Some investors who can't hodl they're trying to make profts by short sales. Halving doesn't guarantee ATH price so what's the option for investors who don't want to hodl but see bitcoin lose value.

Every investment's a risk that's what ppl have to remember before they buy because of FOMO.

What would make bitcoin lose value? Even if the price is reduced than expected, as long as you continue to hodl it without selling, you will surely end up being at a profit someday. That's what people don't tend to know about the uniqueness of hodling bitcoin for long-term purposes. They thought that when the price reduces drastically, like those who bought Bitcoin during its ATH in 2021, it won't skyrocket back in price which puts them at a loss with today's price of $35k.

Forget the fact that bitcoin won't repeat its 4 years circle of price increase because for sure it will. It has done that in the three-halving, and hopefully, it will do that next year halving by increasing the price of Bitcoin months later.

These are my beliefs for bitcoin to do well in price, as I look forward to it in 2024 and 2025

I think we need to look at the history of Bitcoin price.  From there we can mark the ATH before the bear enters the market.  We  can see from the history that there is 4 year apart from each cycle before the previous ATH is surpassed thus, the name Bitcoin 4-year cycle is created.

This cycles as stated in the earlier reply is highly influenced by the Bitcoin halving. Regardless of the news that happens each year , the Bitcoin having is major catalyst before the Bitcoin market starts to rally to record another ATH.  We had not experienced news that break an all time high in a span of time after the new ATH is recorded and before the halving event happen, it has been always after the halving event that makes the Bitcoin price to reach a new height.


It is always observed that bull market starts within a few months before or after the Bitcoin halving event, the price will possibly starts to rise again in the last quarter of 2023 or 1st quarter of the year 2024 and will record a new ATH a year after the halving, possibly in 2025.  That is based on the 4 year cycle that is discussed in this thread.

Looking at this chart, it is +500 days after the halving and I havent seen it from that perspective. So the whole year 2024 would not be an extreme run, that would be strange but okay. There could be Bitcoin ETF's coming in 2024 and then it should go up. The year 2020 and Corona can be seen in the chart, if that hadnt been, the price maybe been higher than the last ATH. Ok, all speculation, but still interesting.