Topic: Bitcoin and it's 4 Year-Cycle - page 5. (Read 1025 times)

This is a good and detailed analysis I must admit. However, I am suspecting major adjustments in this, considering a lot of factors that will come into play in this market cycle. Next years halving might likely happen the same time that Bitcoin ETF will be approved with the later a powerful fundamental to cause Bitcoin achieve a new ATH. So, this combination might be a powerful combination to initiate an astronomical bull run before 2025.


I will not be surprised if the bull run actually starts before 2025, when the whole world least expected. It will be a way of maintaining the dynamic nature of the market. Indeed, next year will truly be interesting year for Bitcoin as it will clear some myth about Bitcoin.

This reminds me of the 210,000 block hodl theory (https://redoules.github.io/210000blocktheory) . Basically if you just buy and hodl for 210,000 blocks, your purchasing power increases.

It blows my mind how people don't understand how beautifully simple bitcoin is. It's literally the best way to save money long into the future. Dollar Cost Average and chill for 4+ years.

It is true that the price witnesses changes every four years, such as reaching a new price that it had not reached before or returning to the highest old price, but this does not mean that the cycles are similar in the same pattern of charts. During the four years, specifically when the price approaches ATH, some economic variables may appear, which It makes extinguishing the cycle possible as global regulation, the bankruptcy of Binance, or USDT value being less than $1, or positive events such as more adoption, more companies or countries buying, all of which are news that push the price in one direction, but the certain fact is that we will be above $69,000 by the end of next year.

OP, I am trying to understand what exactly the volumes on the graph represent?

As for the cycles, I think they have more to do with the halving, and then we have a new flow of money as people anticipate the next bull run. Just like most of us here are waiting for the "cycle", so are other people out there. But we must also be ready if things don't go as planned or if the cycle takes longer than expected.

All these "random lines" on the charts are working in predicting the price until they don't! We saw this in the last one that used to work fine up until this cycle we are currently in. And that one was a very popular chart.

The thing about 4-year cycles is that it is a real thing but also there are a lot of other things affecting the market. Each 4 years we have the rate of supply creation (hence the inflation rate) decrease significantly and that affects the price specially since adoption (ie. demand) is increasing.
But we could never predict the COVID recession of 2020 and the subsequent global economic crash. And these things also affect the market creating an unpredictable low that only the broken clocks could have predicted not any logical speculation.

Good to know of this 4-year cycle which can confirm of how history's going to be repeating itself. However, aside from the halving happening in April 2024 we are also expecting of another new thing to come to the market which is the approval of ETF and this factor might slightly alter the cycle maybe that can shorten the new ATH. Anyway, the big lesson here is for anyone interested with Bitcoin to increase what they are holding as avalanche of blessings can be coming to those with diamond hands.

no it was not
tesla bought btc in december2020, thus tesla did not affect the market in feb/march2021
however MEDIA talked about tesla in spring2021
the speculation was not due to tesla itself not elon..  but due to media speculation

however, speculation drama aside. what actually mostly occured to cause the main ATH event, is that most mining farms dont audit their mining costs vs coins created daily/monthly. instead they buy mining hardware pre-halving(preparing) where hardware has a 2 year life cycle. and they buy electric not monthly but in 24 month contracts.
they simply mine no matter what the market is doing.. if a asic uses 3kw per hour (52,560kw/2year) they will mine non stop all 2 years, as thats what they already paid for.. there is no benefit stopping if markets change because they have a set unit of kw to use in a set time. or they lose it.

and when the contracts/hardware lifecycle are nearing their end. then they audit their earnings of coin vs the upfront cost.. and decide on resisting to sell at X amount or not.

so its linked with the hashrate vs reward. which helps support a minimum "bottom" no one wants to sell below. which then aids speculation above it. when some countries with expensive mining realise they are mining at xmultiple of market. they then happily just buy coin if they cant continue mining in the next mining cycle(2 years)

the best example is the 2013 event. when asics started. those old GPU miners realised they were dying in the competition where the sats per kw became low sats for high kw. so they just bought btc on the market. those preparing asics done their end of life costs of GPU mining. and realised now needing to buy ASICS would be an extra cost so they refused to sell coin below X. meaning it caused the market surge

these financial auditing practices of deciding to not sell below X and those now prefering buying is usually a year after the halving

I like this nice chart, very familiar seeing it of course but as with all charts, 100 ways to view and read

I'm less interested in the high of November 2025 as you predict (I think 2025 is realistic unlike loads of others). I'm more interested in your low prediction, since you got 2022 right. Where do you think the low is? And how much?

Or are you saying the low you predicted was the bottom of this cycle? Because 4-year cycles usually have the bottom >1 year after ATH right?

4-year cycle is a rough saying because two bull runs can be shorter or longer than 4 years but I see no big difference for true holders.

I say this point to help people who still think a next cycle will be exactly like pwst seasons, they might miss the bull run with very good entry. If history repeats, a new bull run will come like 6 months after halving but if history won't repeat itself this time.

Like the bull run will start a few months sooner even before the halving. It only causes difference if people hesitate to buy and wait for halving to start buying.

The 4 year cycle isn't exact though be last halving cycle, we have waited for about a year to see the price from skyrocketing and during the halving there wasn't a lot of movement in the market. It was during Tesla's bitcoin purchase and their acceptance of bitcoin as a payment for their cars that affected the prices.
What are you smoking bro? Can you give me some?

Bitcoin price once made an ATH at 20K in 2017 and then again in November 2021 Bitcoin made a new ATH again according to the circle indicating the possibility of Bitcoin's next ATH exactly four years later in 2025.  But it is not granted.  Bitcoin price has already pumped a lot so it is highly expected that Bitcoin will make ATH again very soon but how long it will take is not sure.  But everyone would be better off if someone made a long term Bitcoin haul.  At present it appears that the amount of holdings has increased significantly from Bitcoin trading.  According to data from CoinMarketCap, the number of Bitcoin holders is 69.24%.


https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

I just want to know if you're a god or a ghost.

If You're God, I'd buy a lot of bitcoins right now and wait for money to fall from the sky.
If you're a ghost, I'll sell bitcoins now and wait for a cheap bitcoin (say, $2,000) to buy.

But who can tell me, are you God or ghost.

BTC and It's Cycles

This is an amazing chart I have saved for more than a year now, it predicted the 2022 Cycle Low correctly. It's made by someone else, I do not remember the user however I have it saved.
I just wanted to share this as many people here do not believe in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle. Here's a live proof of that being executed every cycle.

The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.