Topic: Bitcoin and it's 4 Year-Cycle - page 4. (Read 1003 times)
I really like the chart you have made, most of the time your predictions are correct. Now only waiting for August 2025. The Bitcoin market is very positive by the end of 2023 and it is predicted that the Bitcoin market will remain positive in 2024. If 2023 ends well and if the Bitcoin market is in a good position from mid to late 2024 then the Bitcoin market could reach such a point around August 2025. This is very good news for Bitcoin, it would not be surprising if the market changes so much in August 2025 as all predictions say 2024 to 2025 will be a good time for Bitcoin.
The four-year cycle has proven that it has some worth, at least until now. Of course it doesn't mean that it will forever be applicable because of many factors. One of which is the rising price of Bitcoin. The bigger the price of Bitcoin is, the harder it goes up further and multiply. But while it still can, we should try to make the most of it.
If this will once again happen after the halving in April next year, $100,000 could be a very easy target. It's funny but it's already exciting just to wait.
If this will once again happen after the halving in April next year, $100,000 could be a very easy target. It's funny but it's already exciting just to wait.
Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners. However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has its total supply, 21 million of bitcoins and new circulating supply will be created with each new Bitcoin block until 2140.Because the cost of mining is unchanged with same network total hash rate and same network difficulty. If network hash rate and difficulty increase with time, cost of mining to have 1 bitcoin will increase consequently with time. Hence price of 1 bitcoin will increase in long run and by this, people believe that a Bitcoin halving will help Bitcoin to double its price.
It can be true in long term but in short term, price might be stable and not double like people expectation. It can take a few months for people, investors to realize the impact of Bitcoin halving, then it will be reflected on Bitcoin price.
As Bitcoin's four-year cycle looks really pretty, this prediction is actually quite accurate. We know Bitcoin price starts a bull market every 4 years cycle and that's when Bitcoin price is at its highest ATH. We believe this prediction that we have another bull market ahead that will drastically change the price of Bitcoin. Perhaps we can expect this to begin in 2025, when the market value of Bitcoin will enter the ATH peak. If we look at the chart in 2021 that was the peak Bitcoin ATH, so our next Bitcoin ATH will be in 2025. We can see the price of Bitcoin has already increased quite a bit, almost double what it was before. That's why we should hold for a long time when the market goes to the highest level then surely we can make a lot of profit that's why it is best to hold.
It's going to vary how much halving's going to affect the price of Bitcoin because there isn't a reason to rely on past trending so we don't know. If we know what's going to happen to the price we'd already have made investment plans in prep for the profits.
What's going to happen if the halving this time makes the market turn bad. Miners with equipment lose out so will ppl who've jumped in because of FOMO.
What's going to happen if the halving this time makes the market turn bad. Miners with equipment lose out so will ppl who've jumped in because of FOMO.
Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners. However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?
Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners. However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?
Almost all people are now aware of the Bitcoin halving. Therefore, we can assume that information about the upcoming halving is already included in the real price of Bitcoin. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently rising. There's no denying it. However, what exactly is this growth associated with?
Almost all people are now aware of the Bitcoin halving. Therefore, we can assume that information about the upcoming halving is already included in the real price of Bitcoin. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently rising. There's no denying it. However, what exactly is this growth associated with?
bitcoin mining farms hardware lifecycle is 2 years.
bitcoin miners farms electric contracts is 2 years
the amount of coin mining farms accumulate 2022-23 it accounted in that 2 year mining cycle to set the price per coin for their 2022-23 cycle
the amount of coin mining farms accumulate 2024-25 it accounted in that 2 year mining cycle to set the price per coin for their 2024-25 cycle which will be half as many coins meaning 2x+ of cost
(there are other nuances such as hashrate competition, but im simplifying things)
mining farms do not start and stop randomly(unlike hobby mining) dependant on market. mining farm have 2 years of hardware and 2 years of electric for that hardware so they mine no matter what. and they then compare rewards to that 2 year cost
others(hobby miners) who have higher costs wil see times the market is lower than their individual costs so they will at times buy on the market.
so when the halving happens it affects hobby miners the most to become market buyers instead of miners.
the mining farms wont sell unless the price is above X so that creates an economy where the price goes up
Halving reduces the supply of coins from miners. However, how much could this affect the price of Bitcoin?
Almost all people are now aware of the Bitcoin halving. Therefore, we can assume that information about the upcoming halving is already included in the real price of Bitcoin. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently rising. There's no denying it. However, what exactly is this growth associated with?
One forum participant I know suggested that what is important for Bitcoin is not the halving, but the US presidential election. This is also a four year cycle. T
he price of Bitcoin is expressed in US dollars....
However, presidential elections are usually associated with uncertainty because the outcome is unknown. It is unknown who will be the next US president and what economic policy he will pursue. This causes temporary distrust in the US dollar. As a result, investors are looking for alternative financial instruments, one of which is Bitcoin.
Almost all people are now aware of the Bitcoin halving. Therefore, we can assume that information about the upcoming halving is already included in the real price of Bitcoin. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin is currently rising. There's no denying it. However, what exactly is this growth associated with?
One forum participant I know suggested that what is important for Bitcoin is not the halving, but the US presidential election. This is also a four year cycle. T
he price of Bitcoin is expressed in US dollars....
However, presidential elections are usually associated with uncertainty because the outcome is unknown. It is unknown who will be the next US president and what economic policy he will pursue. This causes temporary distrust in the US dollar. As a result, investors are looking for alternative financial instruments, one of which is Bitcoin.
That's what I've been saying all along. We can't predict the future so we don't what's going to happen after halving. Some users are saying $100k but that's unrealistic. I'm advising ppl not buy because they believe they'll make double or triple profits after halving because it's a risk. They shouldn't invest in the wild or else they'll face losing their investment.
will the price repeat the same pattern? we cannot know for sure, but I trust in Bitcoin mainly because the tradfi system is doing way worse, that contributes a lot as well
The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.
So you think that there's no change in human psychology over the years? They've seen a post-halving bull market in 2013, again another one in 2017, another one in 2021, and they see a halving in 2024 and not try to be sneaky about it and buy earlier this time?
We can already see the price pushing upwards to 50% of the last ATH 7 months before the halving. THings were a bit different in September and October 2015, when people didn't understand cycles yet and price was at only 30% of the ATH.
january 2023 was only 30% of last ATH too.. but funny how you choose "now pushing upwards to 50%" to try to pretend that this year is different.. yet in actual fact we too experienced a LESS THAN 50% of previous ATH event in the year before next halving's year
ofcouse a specific "7th month before halving" wont match history.. bitcoin is speculative on the day-to-day, month-to-month. but taking the broader view of events per year.. you see the cycle patterns
The next possible Cycle High is in August, 2025-November, 2025.
So you think that there's no change in human psychology over the years? They've seen a post-halving bull market in 2013, again another one in 2017, another one in 2021, and they see a halving in 2024 and not try to be sneaky about it and buy earlier this time?
We can already see the price pushing upwards to 50% of the last ATH 7 months before the halving. THings were a bit different in September and October 2015, when people didn't understand cycles yet and price was at only 30% of the ATH. This changed later and in 2018 we already had a strong pre-halving rally to 70% of ATH and this is probably starting to happen this year.
You shouldn't look at these cycles as the same thing repeating over and over. The market changes because people gain experience.
will the price repeat the same pattern? we cannot know for sure, but I trust in Bitcoin mainly because the tradfi system is doing way worse, that contributes a lot as well
Thanks for this decent informative and minimalist compilation dear, OP but I'm a little bit confused as we all know that the having cycle ends around 4 years. Still, the Bitcoin market cycle doesn't follow the same timeframe path. We can expect the cycle duration to be between 2.5 years to 4 years.
So we can expect multiple cycles between the halving to halving timeframe, which will excite the market with all of the cycle fundermenatals Bull, Bear, Accumulation, COnsodilation, and Distribution.
Charts are not big the value is for the realization of the potential, that's it.
So we can expect multiple cycles between the halving to halving timeframe, which will excite the market with all of the cycle fundermenatals Bull, Bear, Accumulation, COnsodilation, and Distribution.
I'd say if something's happened 4 years ago it doesn't mean history's going to repeat itself. It doesn't matter if it's happened at least once before. There isn't a guarantee it's going to occur again so ppl shouldn't put their finances in bitcoin because of charts.
Charts are not big the value is for the realization of the potential, that's it.
I'd say if something's happened 4 years ago it doesn't mean history's going to repeat itself. It doesn't matter if it's happened at least once before. There isn't a guarantee it's going to occur again so ppl shouldn't put their finances in bitcoin because of charts.
It's an interesting image, but I wouldn't trust it when it comes to predicting the future. Maybe it sort of predicted the cycle low once, but that doesn't mean it can predict the next high point accurately. I, for one, think we'll see a cycle high earlier than August 2025, but it's also merely based on the way I see the price chart and movements, which I realize is not scientific and cannot count for more as a mere prediction. But technical analysis isn't scientific either, it's just fancy-looking, which might buy some people's trust.
I just want to know if you're a god or a ghost.
If You're God, I'd buy a lot of bitcoins right now and wait for money to fall from the sky.
If you're a ghost, I'll sell bitcoins now and wait for a cheap bitcoin (say, $2,000) to buy.
But who can tell me, are you God or ghost.
it's the cycle caused by halving. believe that! but buying at $2000, good luck with that.
with that image, it seems like the supercycle they are saying is just not true. all the while some of us have been chasing that cycle without selling a single satoshi because of the hope it will be an astronomical price. it turns out you will need more than 1 cycle to make you see the astronomical price. if you have held your coins since 2017 and will sell them in the next bull run i guess you achieved what you want once the price hits more than $100k.
The chart explains everything, thank you for simplifying it.
I believe that Bitcoin will surge after the halving. It aligns with the cycle, indicating the next bull run should occur by 2025 or next year. We shouldn't go against this trend. The best strategy to make decent profits is to keep accumulating and hold onto the asset until that time arrives.
If we decide to cash in on the profits after reaching a new ATH we should not hesitate, as eventually the market will likely start to correct, so we might need to wait another four years for the next high.
I believe that Bitcoin will surge after the halving. It aligns with the cycle, indicating the next bull run should occur by 2025 or next year. We shouldn't go against this trend. The best strategy to make decent profits is to keep accumulating and hold onto the asset until that time arrives.
If we decide to cash in on the profits after reaching a new ATH we should not hesitate, as eventually the market will likely start to correct, so we might need to wait another four years for the next high.
That would be a treat.
Since this is happening quite soon there is still time to make things happen for us and invest.
But, are there also possible negative outcomes that the halving might bring? I always read that the price will surge after it, but what if it will fall? I'm talking without any outside influences like war, another virus or whatever that will make people want to liquidate their digital assets. What are the chance of that happening?
~Snip~
That's a very good and accurate chart and truly I feel that the one who made the chart was someone very knowledgeable about Bitcoin and the market. I don't know about others but I do believe in that 4-year Bitcoin cycle and I'm pretty sure that history will repeat itself once again in coming years.
I expect that we will see Bitcoin's next ATH during October to December 2025. I still think that August 2025 is too early for the next ATH because previous ATH's took place in November or December but this time I can feel possibility of a new ATH even in October.
It's an interesting image, but I wouldn't trust it when it comes to predicting the future. Maybe it sort of predicted the cycle low once, but that doesn't mean it can predict the next high point accurately. I, for one, think we'll see a cycle high earlier than August 2025, but it's also merely based on the way I see the price chart and movements, which I realize is not scientific and cannot count for more as a mere prediction. But technical analysis isn't scientific either, it's just fancy-looking, which might buy some people's trust.
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All these "random lines" on the charts are working in predicting the price until they don't! We saw this in the last one that used to work fine up until this cycle we are currently in. And that one was a very popular chart.
The thing about 4-year cycles is that it is a real thing but also there are a lot of other things affecting the market. Each 4 years we have the rate of supply creation (hence the inflation rate) decrease significantly and that affects the price specially since adoption (ie. demand) is increasing.
But we could never predict the COVID recession of 2020 and the subsequent global economic crash. And these things also affect the market creating an unpredictable low that only the broken clocks could have predicted not any logical speculation.
The thing about 4-year cycles is that it is a real thing but also there are a lot of other things affecting the market. Each 4 years we have the rate of supply creation (hence the inflation rate) decrease significantly and that affects the price specially since adoption (ie. demand) is increasing.
But we could never predict the COVID recession of 2020 and the subsequent global economic crash. And these things also affect the market creating an unpredictable low that only the broken clocks could have predicted not any logical speculation.
I think the same. These analyses are probabilistic and serve to give us an idea of what might come, but there are some things that cannot be foreseen, such as the COVID example you gave. Inflation and the war in Ukraine also had a negative effect on the markets and it seems that this also affected the price of bitcoin, as it led to higher interest rates, and people had less money to invest.
I can't advise ppl to take bitcoin price projections seriously because we don't know the future. We can't be sure about what's going to happen to bitcoin's price months after halving. Charts give false hope to investors when they're convinced to buy Bitcoin but they aren't prepared for what's going to happen if it loses value.
All these "random lines" on the charts are working in predicting the price until they don't! We saw this in the last one that used to work fine up until this cycle we are currently in. And that one was a very popular chart.
The chart explains everything, thank you for simplifying it.
I believe that Bitcoin will surge after the halving. It aligns with the cycle, indicating the next bull run should occur by 2025 or next year. We shouldn't go against this trend. The best strategy to make decent profits is to keep accumulating and hold onto the asset until that time arrives.
If we decide to cash in on the profits after reaching a new ATH we should not hesitate, as eventually the market will likely start to correct, so we might need to wait another four years for the next high.
I believe that Bitcoin will surge after the halving. It aligns with the cycle, indicating the next bull run should occur by 2025 or next year. We shouldn't go against this trend. The best strategy to make decent profits is to keep accumulating and hold onto the asset until that time arrives.
If we decide to cash in on the profits after reaching a new ATH we should not hesitate, as eventually the market will likely start to correct, so we might need to wait another four years for the next high.
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