Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 124.

allinvain

legendary

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Quote from: epii on May 12, 2011, 08:03:22 PM

Quote from: allinvain on May 12, 2011, 07:18:27 PM

Quote from: silversurfer on May 12, 2011, 01:44:11 PM

The RSI on Enron was flashing buy signals the whole way down.

Indeed. MACD would be a much more appropriate technical analysis tool. That and of course moving averages.

Okay then: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zi1gRSIzi2gMACD

What more does that tell us?

Both tell us that BTC/USD is in a severe overbought and strong uptrend stage.

The problem with using standard technical analysis tools on BTC/USD is that the BTC/USD market lacks the same level of depth and liquidity of say EUR/USD currency pair so there is more variability (volatility) which can really mess many technical analysis tools up.

I'd say stop trying to apply technical analysis to BTC/USD for now and treat it from a fundamental analysis point of view. You can apply technical analysis when the daily volumes of trades for BTC/USD reach a very large level.

For now "predicting" the trend depends largely on whether you know key bits of fundamental data that is relevant to the BTC/USD exchange rate (ie stuff like important bitcoin related news event, news of wider adoption, more businesses starting to use it, some big business adopting it, etc).

epii

full member

Activity: 210

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Quote from: brocktice on May 12, 2011, 09:35:31 PM

Quote from: epii on May 12, 2011, 09:04:11 PM

Quote from: brocktice on May 12, 2011, 09:01:44 PM

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

Oh, good point.

Australia, perhaps.

brocktice

sr. member

Activity: 292

Merit: 250

Apparently I inspired this image.

Quote from: epii on May 12, 2011, 09:04:11 PM

Quote from: brocktice on May 12, 2011, 09:01:44 PM

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

Oh, good point.

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: epii on May 12, 2011, 09:04:11 PM

Quote from: brocktice on May 12, 2011, 09:01:44 PM

Quote from: molecular on May 12, 2011, 08:11:49 PM

Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2011, 10:48:58 PM

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = / 21,000,000

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

bitcoin2.0

epii

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 106

Quote from: brocktice on May 12, 2011, 09:01:44 PM

Quote from: molecular on May 12, 2011, 08:11:49 PM

Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2011, 10:48:58 PM

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = / 21,000,000

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

For what?

brocktice

sr. member

Activity: 292

Merit: 250

Apparently I inspired this image.

Quote from: molecular on May 12, 2011, 08:11:49 PM

Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2011, 10:48:58 PM

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = / 21,000,000

So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2011, 10:48:58 PM

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = / 21,000,000

epii

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 106

Quote from: allinvain on May 12, 2011, 07:18:27 PM

Quote from: silversurfer on May 12, 2011, 01:44:11 PM

The RSI on Enron was flashing buy signals the whole way down.

Indeed. MACD would be a much more appropriate technical analysis tool. That and of course moving averages.

Okay then: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zi1gRSIzi2gMACD

What more does that tell us?

srb123

newbie

Activity: 58

Merit: 0

Quote from: S3052 on May 12, 2011, 04:33:11 PM

Forecast materialized real well...

New all time high and more to come, given the strength of the rally.

You are a freak! Hope you didnt spend that 50BTC I sent you in feb too quickly, you would have made more off me than my "real" financial advisor, lol.

allinvain

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1080

Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2011, 10:48:58 PM

We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity. Grin

Reached it again and surpassed it. Either it's pure insanity or irrational exuberance, but either way I think the uptrend party is here to stay.

allinvain

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1080

Quote from: silversurfer on May 12, 2011, 01:44:11 PM

The RSI on Enron was flashing buy signals the whole way down.

Indeed. MACD would be a much more appropriate technical analysis tool. That and of course moving averages.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Forecast materialized real well...

New all time high and more to come, given the strength of the rally.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

1

Anth0n

full member

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Quote from: epii on May 12, 2011, 01:09:49 PM

It strikes me that the big question at this point is whether BTC is subject to longer term trends than have been easily observable up to now. Take a look at the RSI over the past few weeks:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSI

Looking at a long-term time scale, we're way, way overdue for a reversal. But BTC loves to misbehave.

I've noticed this about the RSI too, but keep in mind that since Bitcoin is a new phenomenon, there are constantly new buyers entering the market. I'm no expert on technical indicators, but my guess is that the RSI assumes that buy volume = sell volume on average, meaning that if one exceeds the other over a period of time, a correction is bound to occur. This is a viable idea in more saturated markets, but since new buyers keep entering the Bitcoin market, the long-term RSI seems likely to be unreliable.

silversurfer

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The RSI on Enron was flashing buy signals the whole way down.

Enky1974

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Quote from: epii on May 12, 2011, 01:09:49 PM

It strikes me that the big question at this point is whether BTC is subject to longer term trends than have been easily observable up to now. Take a look at the RSI over the past few weeks:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSI

Looking at a long-term time scale, we're way, way overdue for a reversal. But BTC loves to misbehave.

Yes and no, oscillators are good when the market trade sideways or not much trendy. When there is a strong trend it can become misleading to trust an oscillator like the RSI.

epii

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 106

It strikes me that the big question at this point is whether BTC is subject to longer term trends than have been easily observable up to now. Take a look at the RSI over the past few weeks:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-02-21zeg2011-05-14ztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSI

Looking at a long-term time scale, we're way, way overdue for a reversal. But BTC loves to misbehave.

Enky1974

sr. member

Activity: 254

Merit: 250