Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 123.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: nster on May 13, 2011, 11:46:02 AM

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall? Cheesy

the MACD indicator typically is a trailing (not leading) indicator. This means that prices may already be back on the rise, even if there is a divergence in the MACD.

I just want to reiterate two things

1) We are still in a long and short term rally phase. No evidence yet for any reversal.

2) As we have entered an exponential rising phase, the risk for a big drop has increased substantially. Be very careful when trading this market now. It has changed its nature big time.
We will see bulls and bears fighting with each other heavily until this is resolved.

This is not a market for unexperienced traders (any more).

stic.man

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: jed on May 13, 2011, 10:37:23 AM

> you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

Not true. The daily volume is around 30k so just keep selling yours over 3 or 4 days for the lowest ask. The price will drop a little but not to nothing. I'm sure you could drop 100k BTC for an average of $5 BTC over the course of a few days.

oh yeah of course, i meant all at once.

Like that thread with the guy with 371,000 of them. I'd just sell like 1000/day for a year and retire

nster

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Quote from: FatherMcGruder on May 13, 2011, 11:47:53 AM

Quote from: nster on May 13, 2011, 11:46:02 AM

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall? Cheesy

No, it means you're pregnant.

But I'm a virgin! maybe it happened when I was in the hot tub with my friends :/

FatherMcGruder

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: nster on May 13, 2011, 11:46:02 AM

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall? Cheesy

No, it means you're pregnant.

nster

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

The blue line is under the pink one... doesn't that mean prices should fall? Cheesy

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

I want to get this back to the original purpose, the technical picture and here it is

As long as those trends hold, we may see higher highs.

Ian Maxwell

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 101

Speaking for myself, if I were one of those early adopters sitting on 100kBTC, I might think it was time, not to "cash out", but to start paying myself... maybe $1000-$2000 a week. The way things are going, this could be sustainable forever.

rabit

member

Activity: 62

Merit: 10

Quote from: jed on May 13, 2011, 10:17:44 AM

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

I´m sure that at this point the people with huge amounts of coins are more interested in technical or theoretical details of BC (or already other projects) than in money.
Thanks for the great usage of your brain power Cheesy

ribuck

donator

Activity: 826

Merit: 1060

Quote from: jed on May 13, 2011, 10:17:44 AM

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out.

I'm sure one or two of the big guys are already slowly cashing out.

Most of us here are either buying or holding. All the new people arriving are buying, and who is the counterparty? It's the big guys, I think.

jed

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 107

Jed McCaleb

> you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

Not true. The daily volume is around 30k so just keep selling yours over 3 or 4 days for the lowest ask. The price will drop a little but not to nothing. I'm sure you could drop 100k BTC for an average of $5 BTC over the course of a few days.

Drifter

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 252

Even so, at current prices there's over $15,000 USD above 7.3 alone. It would be very easy to trade large numbers without a huge fluctuation. Just not all at once.

stic.man

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

I'd have no issue with it as people would clamor to try to buy as many as they could as penny prices and drive the price right back up

there are only so many coins available, even someone who buys every single available one right now on the list can only drive the price up so high

BitterTea

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 252

Quote from: jed on May 13, 2011, 10:17:44 AM

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

Since the market is so thin, wouldn't the price fall before such a seller could get anywhere near current price for their 100k BTC?

barbarousrelic

hero member

Activity: 675

Merit: 502

Quote from: jed on May 13, 2011, 10:17:44 AM

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

Perhaps they are concerned about attracting the attention of tax authorities, so they don't cash out (or they cash out very slowly)

jed

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 107

Jed McCaleb

I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.

BitterTea

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 252

Quote from: nster on May 13, 2011, 09:48:15 AM

I sold 130 BTC at 3.864, 150 at 5.65, and now I'm left with 100BTC, and I'm tempted to sell :/ I already lost 610$ in potential profit, but I don't blame myself as I didn't want to take the risk of it dropping. At both 3.864 and 5.65, trades were slowing down in the bears favor, and both times a big buy saved it.

I feel you. I sold ~500 @ $2.8.

I've got a buy order at $2 though, just in case...

nster

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

I sold 130 BTC at 3.864, 150 at 5.65, and now I'm left with 100BTC, and I'm tempted to sell :/ I already lost 610$ in potential profit, but I don't blame myself as I didn't want to take the risk of it dropping. At both 3.864 and 5.65, trades were slowing down in the bears favor, and both times a big buy saved it.

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

In any case, I think we will enter exciting times in the next couple of days.

While picking the top is difficult, the exponential rise makes BTC/USD very vulnerable to a sudden, hefty set-back.

What happened over the past hour is just one small indication (prices dropped 20% in just a few minutes on high volume). Once some folks get nervous and sell bigger chunks, an avalanche may start.

But this is normal in markets. Corrections always happen. The question is from where? Current levels, 10£ or even higher. But be alert to a big decline.

innernumb

newbie

Activity: 7

Merit: 0

Quote from: Current-C on May 09, 2011, 03:12:39 PM

Quote from: MoonShadow on May 09, 2011, 12:57:12 PM

Quote from: ribuck on May 09, 2011, 11:44:49 AM

Quote from: Current-C on May 09, 2011, 11:06:54 AM

Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . Tongue

Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .

It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.

I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks. Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash. Look what happened to silver recently. Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction. The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .

This is EXACTLY what is on my mind as well...

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: ?? on ??

Ok now, that will really be quite enough. You are messing up my graphs.

boss: "quarterly meeting opened, what's the status, guys?"
accountant: "sir, uh,... we have a problem with our balance sheet, it seems to be quite serious, the guy that wrote the software mumbled something about 32 bits and decimal places, I didn't really understand."
boss: "What?!? Well, get it fixed! What's it cost of that?"
accountant: "Well, uhm, he says he needs $40.000 to fix it, and when he said it, he had this weird grin.. I think he might be overcharging us."
boss: "Goddamnit! Well, do we even have that kind of money?"
accountant: "Well, we don't know, cause, as said, the balance sheet does not compute"

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