Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 128. (Read 540250 times)
May 09, 2011, 04:28:25 PM
I find BTC grossly over-speculated atm. BTC value should be set so that it is semi-profitable to mine
May 09, 2011, 04:11:29 PM
I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks. Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash. Look what happened to silver recently. Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction. The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
Unlike stocks and industry commodities, the wealth measuring tools such as gold/silver/bitcoin can never have "bubbles", the commonly referred gold-bubble of 1980 would never exist in a gold standard world.Barring any manipulation, their values should purely depend on how much a percentage of the world population accepts them as storage of value and media of exchange.
In today's dollar dominant fiat environment, I believe the prices of gold, silver and bitcoin are greatly undervalued, for different reasons. The formers are manipulated down by government policies, the latter is just not well known to the public, also the would-be manipulators haven't figured out how to manipulate bitcoin "physical" market without those fancy derivative tools. Want to have margin trading, options, and more liquidity? be careful what you wish for.
May 09, 2011, 03:45:55 PM
Ya, Dollar cost averaging is a good idea in something this volatile.
May 09, 2011, 03:39:19 PM
I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks. Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash. Look what happened to silver recently. Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction. The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
Buy 50% now , if it will correct a bit buy the remaining 50% of the 100% amount of usd you wanna invest in btc. 
May 09, 2011, 03:12:39 PM
Exponential growth makes me nervous . . . 
Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.
I'd like to see a nice steady bull market with some healthy pullbacks. Pushing the top of an exponential range smacks of frothiness and could set us up for a crash. Look what happened to silver recently. Of course BTC is so thinly traded and is such a disruptive technology we could go much higher without any significant correction. The agonizing question: Do I wait to buy more at a lower price or is this the lower price . . .
May 09, 2011, 02:56:10 PM
I prediction is that anytime sold we will fall below 3$, 2.3~2.5$ perhaps even. than slowly back to 3$, stay there a while, then a rise up to 4.8$ ish and we'll see if we break the 5$
May 09, 2011, 12:57:12 PM
Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .
Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . .It probably makes him nervous because exponential growth might imply an exponential slide.
May 09, 2011, 12:33:34 PM
This is my version of the channel
http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7425/channelp.png
sorry for the average quality but it's still clear. the channel at dec 2011 will range from 5$ to 20$ i drew 3 horizontal lines at 5,10,20$
http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7425/channelp.png
sorry for the average quality but it's still clear. the channel at dec 2011 will range from 5$ to 20$ i drew 3 horizontal lines at 5,10,20$
May 09, 2011, 12:02:01 PM
http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png
I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months. If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5. Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now? Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .
I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months. If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5. Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now? Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .
That channel has always seemed pretty convincing to me, but I just was thinking about the difference between those peaks. The first was on very thin volume. The orderbook completely emptied, if the guy who sold at .50 had listed .60 that channel would be at a way different angle, and I don't mean relative to now, but relative to the volumes before the peak. The second was more actively traded. So if you look for the price where a similar relative volume was actually traded and get a reasonable 'adjusted peak' you would see a steeper channel.
May 09, 2011, 11:44:49 AM
Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .
Exponential shrinkage is what would make me nervous . . . May 09, 2011, 11:06:54 AM
http://hostinga.imagecross.com/image-hosting-00/3828chart_pricechannel_flat.png
I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months. If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5. Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now? Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .
I keep looking at this and wondering if we're going to get any kind of meaningful pullback soon or if we're just going to drift sideways for the next couple months. If we follow the pattern of the last two runs it looks to me like we could drift downward until early july or so down to about 2, then a huge rally would take us past 5. Or maybe we'll just shoot for 5 now? Exponential growth makes me nervous . . .
May 09, 2011, 04:42:41 AM
From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:
(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at [email protected]
No love for legally-resident-in-Europe stateless persons, refugees or asylees, but it's a start!
May 08, 2011, 08:09:56 PM
From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:
(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at [email protected]
No love for legally-resident-in-Europe stateless persons, refugees or asylees, but it's a start!
May 08, 2011, 05:51:52 PM
The "big players" sitting on the sidelines now due to a lack of liquidity would love to provide KYC information in exchange for the removal or raising of transaction size limits, I'm sure.
May 08, 2011, 03:31:16 PM
lol, I would. Not everybody is concerned with anonymity/privacy--I just want to see it succeed as an incredibly effective technology. If you're trying to avoid taxes or something like that it's a decision that has nothing to do with the technology of bitcoin. Personally, I'd advise against it.
May 08, 2011, 11:32:14 AM
...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...
MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:
(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at [email protected]
I don't live in Europe, and I would never send the "required proofs"... How many people would?
That's the question.
May 08, 2011, 11:10:43 AM
...the withdrawal limit of 1000$ per day is a joke for investors...
MagicalTux, the owner of MtGox, has repeatedly made it clear that serious traders can make arrangements with him for a higher limit.From #bitcoin-otc on 2011-05-08:
(10:18:45 PM) MagicalTux: btw, people who live in europe and have nationality of a country located in europe can have their daily withdrawal limit (both in EUR and BTC) increased up to 50k$ by providing the required proofs, more infos at [email protected]
May 08, 2011, 07:11:21 AM
There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.
There's nothing at all wrong with S3052 holding coins, even if it's more than "a few". I just prefer to see it out in the open, that's all.If S3052 had chosen to respond "none of your business", that would have been OK too.
May 08, 2011, 05:55:28 AM
If I remember correctly S3052 said it at very low rates at the beginning too.
So here is more an ideological interest than the financial interest. And I do
not think that the ideological interest may affect the integrity of the analysis.
His analysis predicts a growth and a decline at different times, so it is not
directed to only one side. There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.
So here is more an ideological interest than the financial interest. And I do
not think that the ideological interest may affect the integrity of the analysis.
His analysis predicts a growth and a decline at different times, so it is not
directed to only one side. There is nothing wrong that he has a few bitcoins.
May 08, 2011, 05:45:27 AM
I have never made any secret about the fact that I like the bitcoin idea and hold some bitcoins.
At the same time, I always provide a fair analysis in both, up and downside directions.
At the same time, I always provide a fair analysis in both, up and downside directions.
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