Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 127. (Read 540250 times)

If it makes you feel any better we're probably heading for a substantial drop in the near future.

It's easy - you buy as soon as hear about bitcoins as much as you can and never sell

At least I have 250 BTC left that I can sell... or wait, I'll just stash them in a few wallet.dat, put it in online storage and in USB stick drives and External HDD etc etc in a bank vault, and in a few years I'll dig up up

Only if you continue to measure things in depreciating fiat currencies .... measured in BTC he has no more or less .... see?

Lesson one, don't sell your BTC unless you are starving, cold or need sex.

My post is looking rather prescient right now. I'd hate to try and trade this market.

well, fuck my life... 5$? really? I basically lost 150$ right now ,because I sold a few hours too early?

This is what I hate about BTC Someone decides to buy alot and voila, his BTC is already worth over 50% more

How do you know that will be the case? you assume all market participants are individuals like you and me, free from any organizational or governmental background..... remember bitcoin is and will remain to be a tiny market for quite a while, you don't need a big budget to "get it under control" with proper tools.

You mean until fiat currencies stabilize

Einstein's theory of relativity and all

When the market is mature it'll be trivial to hedge that. Decide how much a drop would be too harmful, buy puts there. You can afford it by giving up some of your upside by selling OOTM options.

Great market for a bitbull to sell 15 day puts for a couple %..

You can't manipulate markets for free. It doesn't matter what tools you have, moving the price from where it 'ought' be costs money. They've got money by the balls right now and we're trying to fix that. Options and futures will smooth the market. I know it looks like they don't in the official markets but it's because everyone has incentive to get on the same side, ride it until it busts and get bailed out. That's not what we'll get with bitcoin, your losses will be yours.

our adoption likeliness will be very low until we stabilize... companies cant afford there 4$ BTC to be worth 2.5$/BTC the next

Why would price go up as a result of difficulty increasing, when I just stated price determines difficulty? Seems that difficulty increasing due to the recent rising price is exactly in line with what I'm saying.

Bitcoins are still utilized by a very small userbase, maybe 15-30,000 people. The only way for new users to start using Bitcoins are to sell goods, most notably USD, in exchange. This increases demand for Bitcoins and causes a rise in the price. The more popular Bitcoin becomes, the greater the amount of people that will demand it, and the greater the price of Bitcoins. Other than that, there is no 'fundamental' price that Bitcoin should be valued at. At the levels of liquidity we're at now and the relatively small nature of the Bitcoin market, it is understandable that we will see wild swings. Not to mention, that even modest adoption of Bitcoin by a few medium sized investors could significantly move the market higher. It's not hard to imagine several scenarios that could easily cause the market to explode higher, a high profile mainstream media feature, adoption by a single large poker site, a large investor taking a gamble on an ideologically agreeable good, money launderers figuring out the benefits, or some other catalyst that could occur TOMORROW.

Honestly, if the libertarian Koch brothers understood the implications of Bitcoin, then throwing just a million USD (play money to them) to blow up the Bitcoin market and resulting media frenzy would do more for their causes then the tens of millions they donate to CATO, etc. every year.

I sold 500$ worth today and am keeping 250BTC knowing that bitcoin will rise one way or another past the 4$ mark, dunno if it there is a correction thats going to be done or not yet, and I wanted a bit of safe ground, as well as $$ to invest into BTC is there is such a correction anytime soon

I'm 18, so this is alot of my money lol, I still have faith in BTC I just gottta criticize it

I've dealt with stocks, but even day to day trading with BTC is sooooooooooo much easier than stocks, let alone longer term

nster: How many bitcoins do you have? I'll buy them from you at a discount, before the crash happens, for completely altruistic reasons.

It could have been undervalued before?  It's really hard to say whether something is overspeculated until after the fact.  Outside of currency trading, btc is worth basically what you can purchase with it, yes?

That means one medium sized retailer accepting bitcoin is immediately adding,10-20M USD (or whatever the retail value of their stock is) to the value of bitcoin. 

I just dont understand how bitcoin value can jump by 5x~7x like this and NOT be over valued... And after big rises, almost every time there is a correction phase. IMO, thsi point has come, it shows in the charts too

Bitcoin seems to be too much of an up down thing, we gotta stabilize unless we want a sudden selling panic once BTC is less profitable! And you say because difficulty is not in real time.... difficulty just changed, I do not see the BTC value going up.... why? the over-speculation engulfed it without a problem

Don't let the tail wag the dog, whereas the acceptance of bitcoin as value measurement is the "dog" and mining is the tail.

Price determines difficulty which should theoretically always settle at semi-profitability. However, due to difficulty adjustments not being real-time, there will always be some amount of dislocation. So I'm not sure how you can use that as a basis for the claim of "over-speculation".

What is "over speculation"? What data led you to your conclusion? If this is purely your opinion, I think it would be best if you would state so explicitly.