Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 88.

slush

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1097

Quote from: mobodick on October 17, 2011, 09:57:57 AM

Nah, once/if the coin stabilizes and shows signs of growth speculators will be on top of it in no-time.
Then it will rally recursively and another bubble will be born.
We need regulations...

... history is repeating.

mobodick

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Apolo29 on October 17, 2011, 10:29:51 AM

I wonder what could happen if prices go to a very low price, for example U$S0,1 ?

Will that be a restart for the btc or the end?

It was predicted by my Bitcoin Technical Apocalypse...
It's a bit like Ouroboros, only it has a goats head.
Lemme quote:

"And thereafter, whens all the bitcoin speculators go forth onto the world, so shall the coin of bits rise onto my people and deliver them from monetary slavery.
And the people will eat of the fruits, and the oms and the noms and the om nom noms.
And they will rejoice at the sight of the speculators and they will know, they have been delivered."

-Bitcoin Technical Apocalypse, Johnson 5:42

kokjo

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

You are WRONG!

Quote from: Apolo29 on October 17, 2011, 10:29:51 AM

...or the end?

can't be! the bitcoin idea is simply too big. it might be the end of bitcoin, but not the proof-of-work-chain cryptocurrency system.

Apolo29

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 0

I wonder what could happen if prices go to a very low price, for example U$S0,1 ?

Will that be a restart for the btc or the end?

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

I'm not an experienced trader by any means, but I've managed to keep my shirt since June (though I've lost my shoes along the way). Bitcoin is too volatile and depreciative to hold onto for even 24 hours. That could (irrecoverably?) harm any incentive to build the economy up to $50. Do you think experienced traders could help stabilize the price at these levels?

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

I'm starting to buy into the commodity-->money theory. Speculation inflates gold price, but it's still some reasonable multiplier above a tradable base value. I don't think we need regulation, I think bitcoin just needs to test some real boundaries, such as some relationship between transaction count and price, or merchants dollar:bitcoin trade volume ratios.

mobodick

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: netrin on October 17, 2011, 09:46:10 AM

Outside of the exchange technicals, my feeling is that bitcoin prices need to collapse to pathetic numbers until no one bothers to know/care what the exchange price is. Then we can build bitcoin up on fundamentals. When coders, bloggers, and what not are willing to exchange services for karma boo denominated in bitcoin UNITS, I think then we'll establish a 'base' value. As long as people measure it's value in dollars or potentials, they don't see nor use it's benefits today.

Nah, once/if the coin stabilizes and shows signs of growth speculators will be on top of it in no-time.
Then it will rally recursively and another bubble will be born.
We need regulations...

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

Outside of the exchange technicals, my feeling is that bitcoin prices need to collapse to pathetic numbers until no one bothers to know/care what the exchange price is. Then we can build bitcoin up on fundamentals. When coders, bloggers, and what not are willing to exchange services for karma boo denominated in bitcoin UNITS, I think then we'll establish a 'base' value. As long as people measure it's value in dollars or potentials, they don't see nor use it's benefits today.

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

I've basically lost my confidence in any kind of trends. Even if the long term trend breaks decisively, it is not the end of Bitcoin. If it can be up in the first place, and then change to down, what is stopping it from changing to up again at some later date? Answer is, nothing. It might take time but it also takes time to build the Bitcoin economy, the real economy.

My only fundamental right now is common sense. One million coins are traded in exchanges, less than 50% are traded at all. At dollar parity the value of the whole economy is therefore between 1 and 4 million dollars. My common sense tells me this is too low. Which is why I believe we will find bottom stabilization at somewhere higher than $1, most likely between $1.5 and $2.5.

That's all I have to go on, until someone can tell me something more convincing.

mobodick

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

"Trend lines? Where we're going, we don't need trend lines." Cool

By now, they should be called 'bent lines'.
And from there it is not far away to 'bent lies'.
But i diverge...

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

No one expects anything if no one believes "my/your logic". The price had been hovering around $4 for several days and then recently dropped to $2.35. Should we then expect the price to rise to $6.5 ? I don't think it follows. Trend lines are meant to be broken and when they are, they set off exuberance, panic, or satisfaction depending on direction and your position. Perhaps you can look into Bollinger bands to get a sense of this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollinger_Bands

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: netrin on October 17, 2011, 07:54:12 AM

That's a possibility. According to my lines, we overshot the channel 4x in May and by your logic perhaps we'll undershoot below by 1/4th. Your guess is as good as any, but certainly nominal values make no sense otherwise we'll undershoot deep into the negatives.

It was not *my logic*, I don't have any experience with this and I am trying to understand the arguments on both sides.

But back to the estimations - if that channel bottom was at $4 that means we can now expect $1 to be the real bottom.

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

That's a possibility. According to my lines, we overshot the channel 4x in May and by your logic perhaps we'll undershoot below by 1/4th. Your guess is as good as any, but certainly nominal values make no sense otherwise we'll undershoot deep into the negatives.

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

A propos that long term trend - the $30 price was so much above that long term trend - shouldn't it now drop below it in proportion to that?

BC-Trader

full member

Activity: 182

Merit: 100

bit coin worth 2.x today 1.x soon then 0.X after that.

Sorry you guy's can't retire from running your video cards 24/7 on these big expensive computers Roll Eyes

that will now flood ebay and bring down your expected recovery value.

But hey, it was a very very nice ride if you took advantage of the human stupidity or if you want to put it nicely "exuberance" know as prices at $30+.....

But the majority did not. Tongue

I wonder how low bitcoin has to go before mtgox pretends it was haxed again and this time "for good"

Count on it.

Or don't

Whatever you like Roll Eyes

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

I have made no statement about specific lines drawn on a chart, only that a log chart is superior for representing trends, and so trend lines are more meaningful on a log chart.

Quote from: zby on October 17, 2011, 06:49:24 AM

wouldn't it follow that they see the trends also in nominal terms and thus also making them go as linear functions by self fulfilling prophecies?

See my statement about 'enough monkeys'. Unless all of these nominal monkeys draw the same conclusions, I predict their trend actions will be best represented on a log chart.

They will focus of RELATIVELY round numbers like $100 or $110; $10 or $11; $1 or $1.1.

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: netrin on October 17, 2011, 06:08:01 AM

Quote from: zby on October 17, 2011, 06:02:28 AM

Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change?

YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to inflation in nominal terms? "The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month." No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers.

I still don't see the connection between this and the lines drawn at the charts. Especially when you say that most investors thing in nominal terms - wouldn't it follow that they see the trends also in nominal terms and thus also making them go as linear functions by self fulfilling prophecies?

Are-you-a-wizard?

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

On a more positive note 10k seems like a lot, but when it comes to the internet you could regain all that again overnight. I don't see that happening though unless something major happened such as an electronics company creating some new mobile phone tailored towards payments with Bitcoin pre-installed (most likely alongside other solutions such as Paypal rather than exclusively). Of course it's more likely Paypal would pay that company to be the sole provider on the phone so there is no use waiting for this to happen.

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

The data doesn't go back very far, but yes, the declines are telling. I'd still like to know what the numbers were in May.

http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/

kokjo

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

You are WRONG!

Quote from: Are-you-a-wizard? on October 17, 2011, 06:25:52 AM

To be honest, scrap all this technical analysis bullshit.

The only graphs that matter are these ~~http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/~~http://bitcoinmonitor.com/

As more people leave Bitcoin the price will go down. There are exceptions to the rule but we are looking at ~10k connections dropped in the last month and there is no sign of it stopping.

Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 88. (Read 540249 times)