To be honest, scrap all this technical analysis bullshit.
The only graphs that matter are these http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/
As more people leave Bitcoin the price will go down. There are exceptions to the rule but we are looking at ~10k connections dropped in the last month and there is no sign of it stopping.
Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 89. (Read 540249 times)
October 17, 2011, 06:25:52 AM
October 17, 2011, 06:22:43 AM
I still don't think it matters. Given enough monkies thinking in nominal terms, the price fluctuations will still be best represented on a log scale, irrespective of the timescale. Remember we dropped from $32 to $23 in about three hours. And $16 to $10 back to $25 in the same day. The volatility of bitcoin hasn't changed much. We've had quiet days at all prices and also 50% daily changes at all prices.
October 17, 2011, 06:14:30 AM
Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change?
YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to the inflation in nominal terms? The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month. No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers.Unfortunately most people here don't understand this. I bet that a lot of trading bots are programmed to act if the price changes $0.X instead of 0.X%. And that's dangerous because now we have a low/high of 2.34/3.74, which means a 40% loss (or gain) in a single day.
October 17, 2011, 06:08:01 AM
Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change?
YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to inflation in nominal terms? "The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month." No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers. 
October 17, 2011, 06:05:24 AM
Really thin order book reminds me of the good ol days... 
October 17, 2011, 06:02:28 AM
But using the log scale for this trend was not the orthodoxy of technical analyzis - or was it?
Zby, log charts are preferred over linear charts when representing rate of change. The drop from $3.5 to $2.5 was just as significant as from $14 to $10.Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change? The links you provided only define what log scale is.
October 17, 2011, 05:49:43 AM
look at mtgoxlive, im right! people are buying again. 
October 17, 2011, 05:44:44 AM
But using the log scale for this trend was not the orthodoxy of technical analyzis - or was it?
Zby, log charts are preferred over linear charts when representing rate of change. The drop from $3.5 to $2.5 was just as significant as from $14 to $10.http://www.fool.com/foolfaq/foolfaqcharts.htm
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:what_are_charts#price_scaling
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/logvslinear.asp
What concerns me most about the bitcoin economy is the large percentage of its supporters (this community) who do not understand basic mathematics, much less the cryptography, upon which confidence in bitcoin depends.
October 17, 2011, 05:37:43 AM
If the price get stuck "crashed" it means BTC economy crashed too.
no. the bitcoin economy can not crash. it will still have some value, a crash means no value(or negative, fun fun). it can not happen to bitcoin, as long as there is least 2 persons in the world that is using it.So... you consider 2 people using some pretend money as "economy" ?
money is essentially useless, their real value, is what was used to create them(paper or electricity). but its often not the price that they are traded for.
October 17, 2011, 05:32:10 AM
If the price get stuck "crashed" it means BTC economy crashed too.
no. the bitcoin economy can not crash. it will still have some value, a crash means no value(or negative, fun fun). it can not happen to bitcoin, as long as there is least 2 persons in the world that is using it.So... you consider 2 people using some pretend money as "economy" ?
October 17, 2011, 05:28:22 AM
S3052, do you see the long term trend broken now?
Yes. Longterm trend is broken intraday.
it needs a rapid reversal above 3.7$ and better 4$ to hold in the next 24 - 48h
But using the log scale for this trend was not the orthodoxy of technical analyzis - or was it?
October 17, 2011, 05:23:21 AM
If the price get stuck "crashed" it means BTC economy crashed too.
no. the bitcoin economy can not crash. it will still have some value, a crash means no value(or negative, fun fun). it can not happen to bitcoin, as long as there is least 2 persons in the world that is using it.
October 17, 2011, 05:21:23 AM
If the price get stuck "crashed" it means BTC economy crashed too.
no. the bitcoin economy can not crash. it will still have some value, a crash means no value(or negative, fun fun). it can not happen to bitcoin, as long as there is least 2 persons in the world that is using it. October 17, 2011, 05:17:40 AM
If the price get stuck "crashed" it means BTC economy crashed too.
no. the bitcoin economy can not crash. it will still have some value, a crash means no value(or negative, fun fun). it can not happen to bitcoin, as long as there is least 2 persons in the world that is using it. October 17, 2011, 05:13:42 AM
If this trend won't hold, then there are dark clouds ahead. Not only for prices but also for the bitcoin economy.
While the protocol will likely still remain secure and good, bitcoin growth and adoption will likely be harmed massively
no no you are seeing it wrong: low prices -> more buys.While the protocol will likely still remain secure and good, bitcoin growth and adoption will likely be harmed massively
is'nt there an inverted chart, like the USD price in BTC, is will explain it good i think.
i know that it is just another interpertation of data, but its important
The price is reflection of how much USD is injected into BTC economy.
Right now we NEED that, we do not have self-running economy yet.
If the price get stuck "crashed" it means BTC economy crashed too.
October 17, 2011, 04:59:17 AM
If this trend won't hold, then there are dark clouds ahead. Not only for prices but also for the bitcoin economy.
While the protocol will likely still remain secure and good, bitcoin growth and adoption will likely be harmed massively
no no you are seeing it wrong: low prices -> more buys.While the protocol will likely still remain secure and good, bitcoin growth and adoption will likely be harmed massively
is'nt there an inverted chart, like the USD price in BTC, is will explain it good i think.
i know that it is just another interpertation of data, but its important
October 17, 2011, 04:56:03 AM
If this trend won't hold, then there are dark clouds ahead. Not only for prices but also for the bitcoin economy.
While the protocol will likely still remain secure and good, bitcoin growth and adoption will likely be harmed massively
While the protocol will likely still remain secure and good, bitcoin growth and adoption will likely be harmed massively
October 17, 2011, 04:53:05 AM
S3052, do you see the long term trend broken now?
Yes. Longterm trend is broken intraday.
it needs a rapid reversal above 3.7$ and better 4$ to hold in the next 24 - 48h
I think he means that we need a confirmation of the current prices. This could be just a spike. If the price returns to higher levels during the next couple of days the "long term buy" still holds.
October 17, 2011, 04:47:50 AM
S3052, do you see the long term trend broken now?
Yes. Longterm trend is broken intraday.
it needs a rapid reversal above 3.7$ and better 4$ to hold in the next 24 - 48h
I think he means that we need a confirmation of the current prices. This could be just a spike. If the price returns to higher levels during the next couple of days the "long term buy" still holds.
October 17, 2011, 04:45:22 AM
S3052, do you see the long term trend broken now?
Yes. Longterm trend is broken intraday.
it needs a rapid reversal above 3.7$ and better 4$ to hold in the next 24 - 48h
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