am curious to find out this news soon..
would be great to know the exact date and time
Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN? - page 87. (Read 540249 times)
October 18, 2011, 05:42:41 PM
October 18, 2011, 05:40:52 PM
And then bitcoins move from medium-niche-on-track-to-become-mainstream to: mini-niche
Yes, that is unfortunately very true, although I see two major things having impact that may very well change that; the publicity deriving from an EU wide ruling stating Bitcoins are Currency, and the need to change the very definition of Currency on their own rule book and, from that, the attention an 'alternative currency not managed by any central government' would attract to all the struggling or embargoed countries.
There is good potential either way, though I'd personally prefer bitcoins to stay in the "shadow" for a bit longer.
October 18, 2011, 05:37:00 PM
Agree with you.
And then bitcoins move from medium-niche-on-track-to-become-mainstream to: mini-niche
And then bitcoins move from medium-niche-on-track-to-become-mainstream to: mini-niche
October 18, 2011, 05:33:42 PM
if it I made illegal to trade and exchange without having a banking-type license prices would crash much more than they already did
Well, this could be a real downturn for the open exchanges, but could just as well come to assert one of bitcoin's advertised strength, the non centralized, pseudo-anonymous nature of it. So exchanges could no longer easily exist, it would be much more expensive and complicated, but actual person to person transactions could still exist as they do now, and things like #bitcoin-otc could very well become the central point for unofficial exchanging the btc.
It would certainly put a (temporary?) brake on the bot driven speculation.
October 18, 2011, 05:21:25 PM
this is correct.the long term trend was up until it broke 2 days ago and now all trends are down hard.
I wonder what is going to happen if bitcoins are ruled a currency by the European officials this week / related to th magicaltux case.
This could be a bloodbath for bitcoins.. I hope it won't but its a possibility.
if it I made illegal to trade and exchange without having a banking-type license prices would crash much more than they already did
I wonder what is going to happen if bitcoins are ruled a currency by the European officials this week / related to th magicaltux case.
This could be a bloodbath for bitcoins.. I hope it won't but its a possibility.
if it I made illegal to trade and exchange without having a banking-type license prices would crash much more than they already did
October 18, 2011, 04:00:20 PM
you are right, all trends are down now
Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....
BUY BUY BUY!
He predicted a lot of downtrends, but yes, the longterm was always up.
October 18, 2011, 03:32:48 PM
The analysis is referring to the technical condition of BTCUSD only. all technical patterns point downwards.
We will alert subscribers once we see a short, mid or longterm trend change
We will alert subscribers once we see a short, mid or longterm trend change
Translation: I'm in the process of buying, subscribers will buy soon, when we're all done, you guys can start a rally.
October 18, 2011, 03:31:04 PM
you are right, all trends are down now
Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....
BUY BUY BUY!
do your research.
October 18, 2011, 03:26:29 PM
Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....
BUY BUY BUY!
BUY BUY BUY!
+1 :-D
October 18, 2011, 03:16:25 PM
you are right, all trends are down now
Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....
BUY BUY BUY!
October 18, 2011, 11:55:22 AM
The analysis is referring to the technical condition of BTCUSD only. all technical patterns point downwards.
We will alert subscribers once we see a short, mid or longterm trend change
We will alert subscribers once we see a short, mid or longterm trend change
October 18, 2011, 11:42:58 AM
you are right, all trends are down now
BitCoin is Fail? October 18, 2011, 11:38:33 AM
you are right, all trends are down now
October 18, 2011, 10:59:02 AM
And we need to go deeper !
October 18, 2011, 10:47:27 AM
is there anyone important(S3052) that can comment on: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/did-anyone-notist-that-bitcoin-had-done-this-before-48840
Done.
I am travellung .
Hence can't post chats and also have typos...
October 18, 2011, 10:19:59 AM
Here is a post from another thread, but it belongs here.
Great to engage with you in this meaty discussion.
I agree with you on points 1)+2), not exactly on rules 3) + 4). Overall, this is an art as you are indicating and no one does this exactly the same. And this is why we will very likely not agree with each other on any chart, and this is fine. In the end, what really counts is that one is more often right than wrong.
Now to the charts:
On rule 3) and 4) Many trendlines, including the 40 year log DJI chart, even work long time after the trendlines have been touched. I have many more examples.
The way you have drawn the trendlines is not really accurate.
(i) When drawing trendlines you have to always start at the lows and connecting these first. Try to find two significant lows and connect these. (ii) Then see whether you can find a 3rd or 4th touchpoint.
(iii) then draw a parallel trendline connecting highs. if this looks right, you have a great parallel trendchannel.
(iv) if a trendline is broken, then how will you see if this line is important? prices will accelerate the move if the line was really important.
You see this in the attached. And truly, this trendline is the most valid one, because
(a) prices have 4 or even 5 touchpoint lows
(b) the upper parallel trendline (green) also makes sense. bitcoin prices broke out of this line end April and is now back to that level
(c) prices held this line early october to Oct 15/16 and then
(d) at the EXACT time when this trendline was broken for the first time in more than a year, prices crashed -40% two days ago . This is why this line has been and still will be so crucial.
And what one should never forget: trendlines are there to be held and to be broken! When discussing trendlines, one must be aware of both, chances to hold and break and act (trade) accordingly.
Now, looking into the future, this line will either be reclaimed fast, or it will provide strong resistance. At the minimum, the underside will likely be tested soon. This is currently around 3.7-4$.
Ah, the ever popular and controversial log chart. I actually like log charts for very large changes in price, so let's do it.
The rules of trendlines:
1) Trendlines are an analysis tool, not a law of nature.
2) The more points you hit, the better your line is.
3) The farther you extrapolate your line past the last point, the less predictive power it has.
4) Trendlines predict normal fluctuations. They become irrelevant after a major market shift that permanently alters market sentiment.
The rules of trendlines:
1) Trendlines are an analysis tool, not a law of nature.
2) The more points you hit, the better your line is.
3) The farther you extrapolate your line past the last point, the less predictive power it has.
4) Trendlines predict normal fluctuations. They become irrelevant after a major market shift that permanently alters market sentiment.
Great to engage with you in this meaty discussion.
I agree with you on points 1)+2), not exactly on rules 3) + 4). Overall, this is an art as you are indicating and no one does this exactly the same. And this is why we will very likely not agree with each other on any chart, and this is fine. In the end, what really counts is that one is more often right than wrong.
Now to the charts:
On rule 3) and 4) Many trendlines, including the 40 year log DJI chart, even work long time after the trendlines have been touched. I have many more examples.
The way you have drawn the trendlines is not really accurate.
(i) When drawing trendlines you have to always start at the lows and connecting these first. Try to find two significant lows and connect these. (ii) Then see whether you can find a 3rd or 4th touchpoint.
(iii) then draw a parallel trendline connecting highs. if this looks right, you have a great parallel trendchannel.
(iv) if a trendline is broken, then how will you see if this line is important? prices will accelerate the move if the line was really important.
You see this in the attached. And truly, this trendline is the most valid one, because
(a) prices have 4 or even 5 touchpoint lows
(b) the upper parallel trendline (green) also makes sense. bitcoin prices broke out of this line end April and is now back to that level
(c) prices held this line early october to Oct 15/16 and then
(d) at the EXACT time when this trendline was broken for the first time in more than a year, prices crashed -40% two days ago . This is why this line has been and still will be so crucial.
And what one should never forget: trendlines are there to be held and to be broken! When discussing trendlines, one must be aware of both, chances to hold and break and act (trade) accordingly.
Now, looking into the future, this line will either be reclaimed fast, or it will provide strong resistance. At the minimum, the underside will likely be tested soon. This is currently around 3.7-4$.
October 18, 2011, 08:23:06 AM
is there anyone important(S3052) that can comment on: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/did-anyone-notist-that-bitcoin-had-done-this-before-48840
Done.
I am travellung .
Hence can't post chats and also have typos...
October 18, 2011, 05:01:52 AM
is there anyone important(S3052) that can comment on: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/did-anyone-notist-that-bitcoin-had-done-this-before-48840
October 17, 2011, 11:22:38 AM
Quote from: S3052
... Strong Buy ...
Forgot to say... "Simon Says".
October 17, 2011, 11:07:24 AM
...I say that the kind of Amazon/Ebay e-commerce model is not really the thing for Bitcoin. The target should be more of a Western Union... Short term transfers. That both depends on healthy exchanges, and helps to ensure the health of the exchanges.
Yes, I think the evolution of the economy had been inevitable: Exchanges provide liquidity. The Western Union/Bit-pay models capitalize on the only inherent value of the bitcoin system (secure, non-reversible, semi-anonymous transactions). But it's a pity because the community wants to 'own' this commodity. Perhaps we can look forward to exchanges backed by physical commodities.What was the sentiment like in April (the previous local minima/bear trap)? I believe bitcoins are far more useful today than they were in April and consider prices under $1 a panicked undershoot into irrational despair.
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