Bitcoin price with a 4 year cycle? - page 12.

wagmi

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I voted yes, why not.

Halving is a very relevant event for Bitcoin because it is huge!
It's a demonstration of Bitcoin's scarcity, going down every 4 years.
And every 4 years, inflation is halved.

It's a question how much Bitcoin will rise but a rising Bitcoin price is very likely.

wxa7115

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Quote from: piebeyb on May 23, 2022, 03:10:49 PM

Keeping in mind and resuming for my thread here , I feel that we no longer need to wait up to 4 years to get ATH on bitcoin price as well as next crypto price

this is just my speculation as we saw a few years earlier where bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn't have many investors, rich people or big companies put their money into bitcoin

Look at bitcoin today, you know that at this time there are quite a lot of big companies and investors even rich people have invested putting their money into bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies, several heads of state and even famous artists in my country also invest a lot maybe in your country too , so maybe we don't have to worry about the recent bearish news

I'm happy to open this thread to be able to share my thoughts as well as speculation and analysis from the forum community on the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Do you think we will follow the 4 year cycle again or we will go to the next ATH?

When the bull run began people saw that it was slower than the previous ones, and while we could attribute this to the fact that bitcoin is bigger and as such it needs more and more money to move up in price, at the same time there was a reason to believe that bitcoin could get out of the 4 year cycle we have been experimenting since the creation of this market.

However with the current bear market we are going through, things are not as clear as before, so we will need to wait and see if bitcoin has been finally be able to break free from the 4 year cycle or if we have to wait even more to see something like this happening.

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In addition to the four-year cycles of bitcoin growth, we can also see two-year cycles when the price declined sharply. From recent history, this has happened in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Therefore, if we are not at the bottom now, we will probably reach it soon. And it may take another two years to recover and then a new bull run after the halving will occur.

piebeyb

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Quote from: Yaunfitda on June 02, 2022, 06:14:42 PM

Quote from: piebeyb on June 01, 2022, 11:44:51 AM

Quote from: uneng on May 31, 2022, 02:07:41 AM

I don't believe in blind cycles. I believe in cause and consequence. Bitcoin was doing pretty well by last year and probably would still be on the last ATH's price range (or even above), if it wasn't for the raisement in interest rates by FED in US. On the moment the speculation about the new interest rates started, bitcoin stagnated and declined slowly from that moment on, until the rates stopped being a speculation and became reality, so bitcoin crashed to the levels we saw on the past weeks. Anyway, bitcoin doesn't depend on a cycle to recover itself. All the market needs are "causes" or "triggers" that will awake positive consequenecs for bitcoin.

And frankly, the more traditional markets and fiat currencies lose value and credibility, the more bitcoin will be benefited. It's a dilemma we live, because at same time we are being prejudiced as country and society, bitcoin is prone to gain value.

I like your thinking and it's true bitcoin doesn't take 4 years to recover, so let's see that later

Not exactly 4 years, but we know that there are triggers and catalyst for the next bull run and that is bitcoin halving. So when is the next process? its May 2024.

But I somewhat agree that more money will flow in the next bull run that might come to traditional markets. Of course inflation will be one factor, specially for smart people to really put their money into bitcoin as a hedge against this rate increase and overtime, instead of losing value in our money, bitcoin might do the opposite.

yes as I wrote in the previous thread where we always follow the flow of this 4 year cycle, whether in the future we will be like that, I don't think it will happen again but would love to hear everyone's thoughts here

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: piebeyb on June 01, 2022, 11:44:51 AM

Quote from: uneng on May 31, 2022, 02:07:41 AM

I don't believe in blind cycles. I believe in cause and consequence. Bitcoin was doing pretty well by last year and probably would still be on the last ATH's price range (or even above), if it wasn't for the raisement in interest rates by FED in US. On the moment the speculation about the new interest rates started, bitcoin stagnated and declined slowly from that moment on, until the rates stopped being a speculation and became reality, so bitcoin crashed to the levels we saw on the past weeks. Anyway, bitcoin doesn't depend on a cycle to recover itself. All the market needs are "causes" or "triggers" that will awake positive consequenecs for bitcoin.

And frankly, the more traditional markets and fiat currencies lose value and credibility, the more bitcoin will be benefited. It's a dilemma we live, because at same time we are being prejudiced as country and society, bitcoin is prone to gain value.

I like your thinking and it's true bitcoin doesn't take 4 years to recover, so let's see that later

Not exactly 4 years, but we know that there are triggers and catalyst for the next bull run and that is bitcoin halving. So when is the next process? its May 2024.

But I somewhat agree that more money will flow in the next bull run that might come to traditional markets. Of course inflation will be one factor, specially for smart people to really put their money into bitcoin as a hedge against this rate increase and overtime, instead of losing value in our money, bitcoin might do the opposite.

piebeyb

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Quote from: uneng on May 31, 2022, 02:07:41 AM

I don't believe in blind cycles. I believe in cause and consequence. Bitcoin was doing pretty well by last year and probably would still be on the last ATH's price range (or even above), if it wasn't for the raisement in interest rates by FED in US. On the moment the speculation about the new interest rates started, bitcoin stagnated and declined slowly from that moment on, until the rates stopped being a speculation and became reality, so bitcoin crashed to the levels we saw on the past weeks. Anyway, bitcoin doesn't depend on a cycle to recover itself. All the market needs are "causes" or "triggers" that will awake positive consequenecs for bitcoin.

And frankly, the more traditional markets and fiat currencies lose value and credibility, the more bitcoin will be benefited. It's a dilemma we live, because at same time we are being prejudiced as country and society, bitcoin is prone to gain value.

I like your thinking and it's true bitcoin doesn't take 4 years to recover, so let's see that later

pooya87

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Quote from: Yamifoud on May 31, 2022, 07:04:30 PM

The next halving could be somewhat full of surprise and excitement, yet I wasn't thinking of $180k but $100k is quite possible. However, we couldn't be confident enough to see such a huge spike as that only happens if whales and big investors will take action during that time.

For your information reaching $100k or even $180k is a tiny rise not a huge spike.
If you look at the history for example the last cycle ending in 2018, the rise was 13200%. In comparison going from $30k to $180k is tiny 500% rise.
You see, just because there are too many zeros in front of a number that doesn't make the whole rise a big one.

Yamifoud

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Quote from: jostorres on May 31, 2022, 05:30:35 PM

Quote from: Marvell1 on May 29, 2022, 06:31:01 AM

Snip~

There are even experts that predicted btc to cross 1 million usd. If a prediction like that is possible then why not a 180k or a 200k when they are in fact more realistic than 1million? But like you I agree that it can not be achieved easily. Maybe not in the year 2025 but for 2025 I am only expecting a price of 80k up to 100k but I see that in order for the cycle to repeat we must first drop below 20k? Geez, so there is a big condition right there but if that is guaranteed then why not? And why will we be scared. We are in fact going to be happy because it allows us to accumulate at the best value before we finally take off to that expected price.

They can be experts in some areas, but not in crypto. Nobody had been able to predict right for the incoming, though we believe about Bullrun during halving, however, in the case, they think that Bitcoin will reach $180k or $1mil, that was overly speculated and far from reality.

The next halving could be somewhat full of surprise and excitement, yet I wasn't thinking of $180k but $100k is quite possible. However, we couldn't be confident enough to see such a huge spike as that only happens if whales and big investors will take action during that time.

jostorres

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Quote from: Marvell1 on May 29, 2022, 06:31:01 AM

Honestly, I do expect that to happen, but in my opinion it's too high to be achieved by 2025. ATH 200k by 2025 means that the price of bitcoin will have to increase about 6 times the current price. If history keeps repeating that, then we get the ATH you say. However, there are no guarantees, so it's all just conjecture since no one knows what bitcoin will look like in the next bull run. And if the cycle repeats, it is entirely possible that bitcoin continues to drop below 20k.

There are even experts that predicted btc to cross 1 million usd. If a prediction like that is possible then why not a 180k or a 200k when they are in fact more realistic than 1million? But like you I agree that it can not be achieved easily. Maybe not in the year 2025 but for 2025 I am only expecting a price of 80k up to 100k but I see that in order for the cycle to repeat we must first drop below 20k? Geez, so there is a big condition right there but if that is guaranteed then why not? And why will we be scared. We are in fact going to be happy because it allows us to accumulate at the best value before we finally take off to that expected price.

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 30, 2022, 01:10:55 PM

I used to think so, but looking at the recent chain of events I expect we need a full cycle to see a new ATH for Bitcoin, I was hoping to get to that before the end of this year but I expect that to be difficult now, there has been a lot of regulatory restrictions by governments as well as news The bad for Bitcoin makes me rule out a close top at the moment, don't forget also the crash of Luna and its stable currency, in my opinion, this will have a huge negative impact on Crypto in general and Bitcoin in particular.

I know for a fact that we are not going to take a big step forward when the next cycle happens, there is no doubt in my mind about that at all. There is nothing wrong with the fact that we are not going to end up with a good return even before that though, I mean it is going to happen one way or another and that will result with the fact that we are going to end up with something that will be a higher price in the long run.

This is why I believe that if we could get there it will be something that will end up with a great even before all of that time comes and I believe that we should not be really considering the situation to be that much of a trouble at all.

blockman

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You have a point about not following the 4-year cycle but I still believe that it will be followed this time. The whales still have the impact which they just send their investments from here and there, the other markets like stocks and the others. Well, if it happens that it didn't happen to follow the 4-year cycle then that's better for us, we don't have to wait another year for the expected bull run just after the halving. That's favorable honestly but in terms of belief, I still think that the market will follow it. Nevertheless, the possible next halving in 2028 and the next years might break the cycle IMO since that's likely the market will be much bigger.

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In this case I have 50/50 confidence in the 4 year cycle that has been happening so far, indeed we basically see if the 4 year cycle makes the Bitcoin price experience the highest increase and is accompanied by the creation of an all-time high price as happened in 2014, but we can't deny that in fact a 4-year cycle can't guarantee the price of bitcoin always rises significantly, because after all bearish and bullish prices in the market really depend on the demand and supply mechanism that occurs during the 4-year cycle, but as far as I know, demand and Bitcoin supply will also change over time so there is no guarantee that a 4 year cycle will increase the price.

uneng

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I don't believe in blind cycles. I believe in cause and consequence. Bitcoin was doing pretty well by last year and probably would still be on the last ATH's price range (or even above), if it wasn't for the raisement in interest rates by FED in US. On the moment the speculation about the new interest rates started, bitcoin stagnated and declined slowly from that moment on, until the rates stopped being a speculation and became reality, so bitcoin crashed to the levels we saw on the past weeks. Anyway, bitcoin doesn't depend on a cycle to recover itself. All the market needs are "causes" or "triggers" that will awake positive consequenecs for bitcoin.

And frankly, the more traditional markets and fiat currencies lose value and credibility, the more bitcoin will be benefited. It's a dilemma we live, because at same time we are being prejudiced as country and society, bitcoin is prone to gain value.

peter0425

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Quote from: Sir Legend on May 29, 2022, 12:18:52 AM

Until now we can say that the 4 year trend is happening again, if by the end of the year the price cannot reach ATH which has happened in November 2021 then we will need much longer time to see bitcoin rise again, but when the price is dropping then now is a good opportunity to buy.

if that is going to happen then we are talking at 2025 here? as the cycle mentioned are 2013-17-21 and the next is 25?

well it doesn't matter to me because I prefer holding my coins till at least 2025-28

Quote from: Pejoh Asu on May 28, 2022, 06:19:56 AM

In 2014 I first heard about Bitcoin, but at that time a lot of negative news because many were sure that the future of Bitcoin would end because drops from more than $ 1000 to under $ 150, but Bitcoin could rise and skyrocket in 2017 and then drop again again , next is 2021 which skyrocketed and 2022 drops more than 50%, if you look at the graphics, of course this is a 4 -year trend that is repeated.

there are already proof that the 4 years cycle is indeed coming so I believe and voted also for the positive approach .

piebeyb

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 30, 2022, 01:10:55 PM

I used to think so, but looking at the recent chain of events I expect we need a full cycle to see a new ATH for Bitcoin, I was hoping to get to that before the end of this year but I expect that to be difficult now, there has been a lot of regulatory restrictions by governments as well as news The bad for Bitcoin makes me rule out a close top at the moment, don't forget also the crash of Luna and its stable currency, in my opinion, this will have a huge negative impact on Crypto in general and Bitcoin in particular.

yes i know that when the problem happened to LUNA, the price of bitcoin also fell and only touched $25k and today we are back above $30k

Quote from: STT on May 30, 2022, 07:03:51 PM

2014 was not too dissimilar to now, plenty of rich people and business were involved back then. Market cycles repeat themselves endlessly despite various developments we arent making any extraordinary move this time that cannot be compared to prior action. Its the dollar which has changed more if anything, the whole gameplan for BTC for 2022 was known and outlined in 2014 so they knew where they were heading and roughly what would be true on BTC blockchain many years prior where as Dollar did take extreme measures and will continue to break rules its held for years till there is no standard of value left there.

we have experienced the third time the 4 year cycle

2013
2017
2021

I think there is a difference every cycle we go through even though we know it will eventually make the price touch a new ATH, but here we are again aware that it won't keep repeating itself because of course it doesn't make it interesting when everyone will know about the cycle, maybe a lot of people people who have sold it cheap because they still adhere to this cycle I'm afraid it will disappoint everyone if in the end the cycle doesn't repeat itself and we will be embarking on a new ATH in the near future

STT

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2014 was not too dissimilar to now, plenty of rich people and business were involved back then. Market cycles repeat themselves endlessly despite various developments we arent making any extraordinary move this time that cannot be compared to prior action. Its the dollar which has changed more if anything, the whole gameplan for BTC for 2022 was known and outlined in 2014 so they knew where they were heading and roughly what would be true on BTC blockchain many years prior where as Dollar did take extreme measures and will continue to break rules its held for years till there is no standard of value left there.

yhiaali3

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I used to think so, but looking at the recent chain of events I expect we need a full cycle to see a new ATH for Bitcoin, I was hoping to get to that before the end of this year but I expect that to be difficult now, there has been a lot of regulatory restrictions by governments as well as news The bad for Bitcoin makes me rule out a close top at the moment, don't forget also the crash of Luna and its stable currency, in my opinion, this will have a huge negative impact on Crypto in general and Bitcoin in particular.

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Quote from: ninis45 on May 24, 2022, 06:42:21 PM

as someone who has been here for so long we know the 4 year cycle is the most awaited as the highest profit earning option but this is an option for me personally when buying at high prices while others when the market is greener I will sell it and take profit from the next decrease even though it's only a few percent because until now I prefer to buy in installments up to the lowest price of 70%, only 30% of the funds are devoted to waiting for the next ath

If you should put the record of highest year of making Profit in cryptocurrency, you know that the statistics of it will be unbalance because that year you think you have made profit may another year some body some where fails to make profit, i will say that statistics to be proven is individual kind of achievement in cryptocurrency investment

piebeyb

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Quote from: Pejoh Asu on May 28, 2022, 06:19:56 AM

In 2014 I first heard about Bitcoin, but at that time a lot of negative news because many were sure that the future of Bitcoin would end because drops from more than $ 1000 to under $ 150, but Bitcoin could rise and skyrocket in 2017 and then drop again again , next is 2021 which skyrocketed and 2022 drops more than 50%, if you look at the graphics, of course this is a 4 -year trend that is repeated.

from this thread I can explain once again, look when you came in 2014 and then did you ever hear of a company or rich and famous people investing in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, look at anyone who invested heavily in bitcoin and crypto from the end of 2020 until right now, it's possible that the cycle is no longer valid

Quote from: Sir Legend on May 29, 2022, 12:18:52 AM

Until now we can say that the 4 year trend is happening again, if by the end of the year the price cannot reach ATH which has happened in November 2021 then we will need much longer time to see bitcoin rise again, but when the price is dropping then now is a good opportunity to buy.

bitcoin always has a surprise for it, whether it's next month, end of the year or next year to take another ATH, at least take a chance when people get the moment people sell it cheap

Marvell1

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Quote from: btc78 on May 28, 2022, 04:15:40 AM

Quote from: Marvell1 on May 27, 2022, 05:41:44 PM

Quote from: justdimin on May 27, 2022, 04:18:23 PM

This time around we dropped to 30k and that is seen as a bad thing by many people but the relaity is that we could be seeing this as a great thing because if we do x6 again that would be 180k, a bit more and we reach 200k. So not only we have a chance to break over 100k, but we have a chance to reach 200k during next bull run.

I think 100k $ is a reasonable target, 180k $ for the next bull season is a bit high?. From 1 to 10 is simple, but 10 to 100 is completely different. The bearish cycle is not over yet and currently bitcoin is trading at $ 30,000 for me which is not too bad either. If bitcoin can sustain this price until the end of the bear season, my target is still $ 100k for the next bull season.

180k USD is a small amount to be targeted for the next Halving season(Bull run) in 2017 we hit almost 20k and in 2021 we hit almost 70k so look at it, that is more than 300% increase from the past ATH , so if we will look at it for 2025? then that would be more than 200k so yeah it will be attainable i think..
but still depend on how we will support the market because we are the one who will make this happen .

Honestly, I do expect that to happen, but in my opinion it's too high to be achieved by 2025. ATH 200k by 2025 means that the price of bitcoin will have to increase about 6 times the current price. If history keeps repeating that, then we get the ATH you say. However, there are no guarantees, so it's all just conjecture since no one knows what bitcoin will look like in the next bull run. And if the cycle repeats, it is entirely possible that bitcoin continues to drop below 20k.

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