yes that's true but the 4 year cycle can happen again and again and people might save their money to wait a long time to buy cheap crypto, but no one knows if it will happen again and I'm sure it won't happen again, this thread will live to share thoughts about it
We don't know what lies ahead of us, especially what Bitcoin market trend is up in the next few months. Remember TA had been shamed by BTC multiple times so if we rely on the TA for BTC trend then there is a huge possibility that we are wrong on our next prediction. I am not against your thought of a 4-year cycle not happening this time since I am open to all possibilities but between a TA that had been shamed by the BTC market multiple times and a cycle that had been followed by BTC several times, I would still be inclined that BTC will still follow its 4-year cycle trend.
If we look back the history it seems this is what exactly happened, but I thought it will take 1 year right after the next halving the price will increase but now I realized it only has 3 years gap. So possible by next there will be a new ATH again, but last year 2021 we have experienced a twice ATH and I hope soon there will be another raise of ATH in the market.
After BTC halving Bitcoin tends to have a series of ATH-breaking events until the Bull market shifted to the Bear market.
However, that cycle is not a guarantee that BTC will follow the cycle, it will remain unpredictable.
I agree, it is not guaranteed so we just need to wait and see if it will happen again or not.